The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Ravens vs. Dolphins
For this Week 9 Thursday Night Football matchup on 10/30 featuring the Ravens vs. Dolphins, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Ravens vs. Dolphins
Week 9 is here, which means we are officially halfway through the season. It’s sad to think that half of the season is over, but that also means we still have half of the season to look forward to. As we are prepping our candy and our kids’ costumes for Halloween, we get to watch the Ravens square off against the Dolphins on Thursday night.
The Ravens picked up a big win last week and now have a fairly clear path to going on a run over the next couple of months. The Dolphins are coming off of a blowout win against Atlanta, but they would need a small miracle to get back into playoff contention. The Ravens are listed as an 8.5-point favorite in a game that features a total of 50.5 points.
Key Injuries (updated on Wednesday)
Justice Hill – Questionable
Tyreek Hill – Out
Darren Waller – Out
Baltimore Ravens Preview
The Ravens picked up a huge win against the Bears on Sunday to improve to 2-5 on the season. With Lamar Jackson expected back this week, they could go on a serious run over the last 10 games of the season. Jackson practiced in full and said that he feels 100% healthy. Whenever he’s on a Showdown slate, I rarely look elsewhere at MVP/CPT. He offers such a high floor/ceiling combo and doesn’t need huge games from his receivers to have a big fantasy outing himself. He draws an elite matchup against the Dolphins, who are 30th in EPA allowed per dropback and 21st in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Baltimore’s wideout usage (2025):
- Zay Flowers: 92% route participation, 29% target share, 35% air-yards share
- Rashod Bateman: 70% route participation, 12% target share, 21% air-yards share
- DeAndre Hopkins: 34% route participation, 8% target share, 16% air-yards share
- Mark Andrews: 64% route participation, 16% target share, 14% air-yards share
Zay Flowers has been the clear WR1 for the Ravens this season, racking up a 29% target share and 35% air-yards share. He struggles with consistency since the Ravens are a run-first team, but he offers plenty of upside. We have some conflicting data here, as the Dolphins are 30th in EPA allowed per dropback but 1st in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Rashod Bateman doesn’t see a ton of targets, but he has seen 21% of the team’s air yards. He’s always viable in tournaments.
DeAndre Hopkins has struggled to get going this season. He doesn’t run many routes or see many targets. The Ravens use a lot of 12 personnel (i.e. 2-TE sets), so we should see more Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews than we do Hopkins. The matchup sets up better for the tight ends, as the Dolphins are 22nd in fantasy points allowed to the position.
In terms of yards per carry, Derrick Henry gets better every month of the season. We are nearing November, which means this is the time of year he really starts to dominate. The efficiency hasn’t been there this season, but having Jackson back under center will help. A matchup against the Dolphins should also help on that front, as they are 24th in PFF’s grades against the run, 20th in EPA against the run, and 28th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. This feels like a slate where we lock in the non-correlated players from the Ravens (Jackson and Henry).
The Ravens are getting some key players back on the defensive side of the ball, but I’m not sure I’m ready to trust this defense. They’ve been one of the worst units in the NFL this season. Kicker Tyler Loop has attempted 2 or more field goals in 5 of 7 games this season.
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Miami Dolphins Preview
I’m not sure anyone expected the Dolphins to go into Atlanta and blow out the Falcons. I’m not sure this changes much in the grand scheme of things, but it was nice to see some signs of life. Tua Tagovailoa is missing two of his best wideouts and offers little to no rushing upside. He’s not on my radar at MVP/CPT, but he’s certainly viable at FLEX/AnyFlex. The Ravens are getting some players back on defense, but they are currently 28th in EPA allowed per dropback and 29th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Miami’s wideout usage (Weeks 5-8):
- Jaylen Waddle: 72% route participation, 21% target share, 50% air-yards share
- Malik Washington: 61% route participation, 17% target share, 11% air-yards share
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: 55% route participation, 6% target share, 6% air-yards share
The numbers above are from the games that Tyreek Hill has missed this season. As you can see, Jaylen Waddle has been the clear WR1 for Miami. With Hill out of the lineup, Waddle has a 21% target share and a massive 50% air-yards share. He’s finally seeing consistent downfield targets. He’s one of my favorite plays on the slate, as the Ravens are 31st in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. If you can’t afford Waddle, Malik Washington is a reasonable alternative. He’s seen a 17% target share with Hill out over the last 4 games.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine hasn’t been very involved in the offense, but he’s run a route on 55% of dropbacks over the last 4 games. I certainly don’t mind using him as a lineup filler. With Darren Waller out for the last 2 games, the Dolphins have employed a timeshare at the tight end position. Julian Hill, Tanner Conner, and Greg Dulcich have all had route participation rates between 25% and 31%. Conner has seen a 14% target share during that stretch, but he needs to be on the field more. If he’s going to be a popular punt, I’m happy to be underweight.
De’Von Achane has played on 77% of snaps this season and has averaged 20 opportunities per game. He gets almost all of the goal-line work, and he runs a ton of routes in the passing game. He’s firmly in play against the Ravens, who are 29th in both EPA against the run and fantasy points allowed to running backs. Ollie Gordon II is coming off of season highs in touches (11) and yards from scrimmage (66). He’s a decent punt on a slate where we want to build stars-and-scrubs lineups.
I have a total of zero interest in the Dolphins’ defense now that Lamar Jackson is back. Kicker Riley Patterson is also a tough sell, as I’m not sure the Dolphins will be able to settle for field goals in this game.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
My first thought is that I want to prioritize both Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. I want to capture all of the offensive touchdowns for the Ravens. While the two don’t correlate very well, they could easily top 25 fantasy points each. And hey, there’s always the chance we get the rare Henry receiving touchdown, which would be huge for the pairing. On the Dolphins’ side of the ball, I am prioritizing Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane. Based on my builds, I will only be able to use one of them in each lineup. I might have some exposure to Tyler Loop, but I don’t want any part of the defenses or Riley Patterson.
Ravens vs. Dolphins DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | 23.14 | $11,800 | 1.96 | $13,600 | 1.70 |
| De’Von Achane | MIA | RB | 19.21 | $11,400 | 1.69 | $12,000 | 1.60 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | 18.40 | $11,000 | 1.67 | $12,600 | 1.46 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | 16.84 | $9,400 | 1.79 | $9,800 | 1.72 |
| Jaylen Waddle | MIA | WR | 15.88 | $10,400 | 1.53 | $10,400 | 1.53 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | QB | 15.06 | $10,000 | 1.51 | $11,400 | 1.32 |
| Malik Washington | MIA | WR | 10.60 | $4,800 | 2.21 | $7,400 | 1.43 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | TE | 10.24 | $5,000 | 2.05 | $8,600 | 1.19 |
| Tyler Loop | BAL | K | 9.23 | $5,400 | 1.71 | $6,800 | 1.36 |
| Riley Patterson | MIA | K | 7.95 | $5,200 | 1.53 | $6,600 | 1.20 |
| Justice Hill | BAL | RB | 7.52 | $3,600 | 2.09 | $3,000 | 2.51 |
| Ravens | BAL | DST | 6.47 | $4,000 | 1.62 | $6,200 | 1.04 |
| Ollie Gordon | MIA | RB | 6.12 | $4,400 | 1.39 | $5,600 | 1.09 |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | WR | 5.99 | $6,400 | 0.94 | $5,000 | 1.20 |
| Tanner Conner | MIA | TE | 5.72 | $2,800 | 2.04 | $5,400 | 1.06 |
| Isaiah Likely | BAL | TE | 5.34 | $2,000 | 2.67 | $3,800 | 1.41 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | MIA | WR | 4.97 | $3,200 | 1.55 | $3,400 | 1.46 |
| Dolphins | MIA | DST | 4.61 | $3,400 | 1.36 | $6,400 | 0.72 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | BAL | WR | 4.07 | $4,200 | 0.97 | $4,400 | 0.93 |
| Keaton Mitchell | BAL | RB | 3.17 | $1,400 | 2.26 | $2,200 | 1.44 |
| Alec Ingold | MIA | RB | 2.34 | $200 | 11.70 | $1,200 | 1.95 |
| Greg Dulcich | MIA | TE | 2.23 | $600 | 3.72 | $2,000 | 1.12 |
| Charlie Kolar | BAL | TE | 2.05 | $1,600 | 1.28 | $1,400 | 1.46 |
| Tylan Wallace | BAL | WR | 1.91 | $3,000 | 0.64 | $1,600 | 1.19 |
Ravens vs. Dolphins Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 10-12
Derrick Henry more than 0.5 anytime touchdowns (1.33x) – Sleeper Fantasy
This play doesn’t exactly have the best odds, but I still love it for the Thursday Night Football game. Henry has scored a touchdown in 4 of 7 games this season and now has Lamar Jackson back from injury. The Ravens should put up a ton of points against the Dolphins, who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They are especially bad on the ground, ranking 24th in PFF’s grades against the run, 20th in EPA against the run, and 29th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Henry should see 20+ touches in this game. I have to imagine he finds the end zone at least once.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus