Week 5 NFL DFS QB Projections: DraftKings Values & Sleepers
We’ve already reached the quarter pole of the 2023 NFL regular season, which means we’re into bye weeks. The Chargers, Seahawks, Bucs, and Browns are off this week, which leaves us with a mere 10 games on Sunday’s main slate. There’s still money to be made, of course, and we have the usual slew of big-money prize pools on DraftKings.
As usual, quarterback will be a primary decision point in every single one of your lineups. Builds will be interesting in Week 5, given all of the value at the QB position. Sure, you can still pay up for Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, or Lamar Jackson, but I have serious interest in punting the position in tournaments.
Below is a bird’s-eye view of the QB situation on DK this week.
Week 5 DraftKings Projections — Quarterback
Jalen Hurts ($8,000, 23.41 projected FPTs)
Jalen Hurts checks in as our top-projected QB at exactly $8,000 for the second week in a row. Philly’s signal-caller didn’t have the easiest afternoon last Sunday against the Commanders, but he did top 300 yards with multiple touchdown passes for the first time this season. He was also held out of the end zone as a runner for the first time since Week 1.
This week, the Birds will head west for a date with the Rams in SoCal. This game has the second-highest total of the week (50.5), and the Eagles are 4.5-point road favorites. The once-vaunted Rams defense has struggled through four games, ranking just 21st in tDVOA. They’re 21st against the pass and 24th vs. the run.
Obviously, both numbers matter to Hurts, who affects the game quite a bit with his legs. Hurts’ 40 rushing attempts so far this season are the second-most in the NFL among QBs, and he’s just 1 behind Jackson for the league lead. The Eagles are the third-most-run-heavy offense, and they’ve been particularly successful in that regard since D’Andre Swift took over the backfield back in Week 2.
Pairing Hurts with Dallas Goedert ($4,200) is the most affordable way to get some correlation here, with AJ Brown ($8,000) and DeVonta Smith ($7,400) carrying much more cumbersome salaries. Brown does have a whopping 43 targets already this season, 27 of which have come in just the last two games.
As always, I’m fine with deploying Hurts without a stacking partner in tournaments, given his rushing TD equity. Pairing him with Brown is easily the more appealing path in a vacuum, but you’ll have to make some sacrifices elsewhere in your lineup in order to make that happen. Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,000), Rashee Rice ($3,600), Josh Downs ($3,700), Zach Ertz ($3,500), and Calvin Austin ($3,500) can help you afford these premium Philly stacks.
Anthony Richardson ($7,000, 22.04 projected FPTs)
Anthony Richardson looked no worse for the wear last week after missing Week 3 with a concussion. All the Colts’ prized rookie QB did was account for 3 total TDs – including 2 rushing – in Indy’s OT loss to the Rams. Richardson now has 4 rushing scores through three NFL games, with 3 more through the air. He’s also turned it over just twice.
As is the case with Hurts, much of Richardson’s fantasy appeal stems from that rushing ability. He’s carried the ball exactly 10 times in two of his three games, and he’d likely be 3-for-3 if he hadn’t left his second game early with that concussion.
There’s a chance Jonathan Taylor returns to the field this week at home against the Titans. While Richardson would still be heavily involved in the ground game by default, it’ll be interesting to see how much work the Colts give Taylor in his first game back. It’s still worth remembering that Richardson has been a useful fantasy asset with Zack Moss still playing a huge role in the backfield, so I’m not too concerned.
Something I suppose that is a concern is this matchup with the much-ballyhooed Titans run defense. Tennessee is 2nd in DVOA vs. the run after leading the league in that regard a season ago. Tennessee has been porous against the pass (25th), so perhaps the Colts can find some success through the air in this one.
Richardson comes at a considerable discount from the top-tier QBs, yet he has the second-highest projection on the slate as of this writing. He’s not flying under the radar, however, as his 10.22% pOWN is also the highest of any QB on DraftKings.
Michael Pittman ($6,400) is reasonably priced as the top target in the passing game, while you can punt with Downs and/or Kyle Granson ($3,000) if you’re so inclined.
Tua Tagovailoa ($7,100, 20.71 projected FPTs)
The Dolphins washed ashore last weekend in Buffalo, but they find themselves in a nice bounce-back spot this week at home against the hapless Giants. New York’s defense has slumped to 27th in DVOA this season. They’re 26th vs. the pass and 29th against the run, and a matchup against the high-octane Miami offense is a recipe for disaster against this struggling group.
Some of the Giants’ defensive woes can be attributed to their offensive woes, of course. The offense has been so pathetic that they can’t keep their own defense off the field, though perhaps the impending return of Saquon Barkley will give them a boost. Regardless, it’s hard not to prefer the Dolphins’ side of this matchup, especially given the way they were held in check last Sunday in Buffalo.
Miami has quietly been among the most run-heavy offenses in the league this season, but that hasn’t stopped Tua from already topping 1,300 yards through the air across 4 games. The Tua-Tyreek Hill stack may be the highest-upside 1:1 stack you can play, but it’s likely a matter of time until Jaylen Waddle gets going. Tyreek is projecting for about double the ownership of Waddle as of Wednesday, but I don’t mind pivoting to the cheaper wideout and hoping this is the week he finally gets back on track.
While Richardson projects slightly better at a similar salary, you’re getting a considerable ownership discount (4.18%) with Tagovailoa for just $100 more. Tua obviously doesn’t bring the rushing ability to the table, but he does have the better on-paper matchup this week.
Top DFS Sleepers for Week 5
Ryan Tannehill ($4,900, 14.04 projected FPTs)
As mentioned, there’s some value at QB this week. Paying up for the studs feels safer, but plunging for the cheapies is a good way to help you afford to pay up at other positions. Spending up looks like it’ll be the more popular approach, so I have no qualms about flipping the build and punting QB.
It is with great regret that I mention Ryan Tannehill as my favorite of the affordable quarterbacks. The Titans go into the dome this week to face the Colts, who just got gouged in this very building by the Rams last Sunday. Indy has been respectable against the pass overall this season (14th in DVOA), but this is a positive context shift for the Tennessee offense. The Colts have also been among the fastest-paced offenses in football this season, so it’s a pace-up spot for a naturally slow Titans group. Pace is a popular reference point in NBA DFS, but it’s often overlooked in NFL, for whatever reason.
Tannehill has been among the worst fantasy QBs in the league this season, unfortunately. He’s posted 2 single-digit efforts, while he’s topped 14 points just once. He’s got twice as many interceptions as touchdown passes, and he’s also fumbled 3 times. He does have a rushing TD to his name, however. Are you excited to play him yet?
This play is all about value. Tannehill is so cheap that you can stack him with DeAndre Hopkins ($5,700) and Chig Okonkwo ($3,200) and still have enough cash to pay up for Justin Jefferson, Bijan Robinson, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill, or whichever high-priced skill position guy tickles your fancy. Hopkins has quietly posted an elite 31% target share, while Okonkwo (15%) gets enough looks to pay off his cheap salary at a thin position.
Joe Burrow ($6,200, 16.84 projected FPTs)
The Giants may have something to say about this, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find an offense more disappointing than that of the Bengals thus far. Cincy is just 1-3 on the season, and, for some reason, this offense looks stuck in the mud. Joe Burrow is dealing with the calf injury he sustained in training camp, but does that really explain the calamitous drop in quality for this group through four games?
The Bengals were held in check last week in Nashville, though they draw a better matchup this week in Glendale. The Cardinals have been a lot more competitive than most expected, but they’re still very much a work in progress on defense. Arizona is 30th in total DVOA, including 30th against the pass. If the Bengals can’t bounce back against this team, they may be hopeless.
At $6,200, we’re getting Burrow at a significant discount. This was consistently a $7,000 player last year, though you can argue he’s been even worse than Tannehill so far in 2023. Burrow has 3 single-digit fantasy games, and he’s failed to throw a touchdown pass in three of his first four outings. Burrow wasn’t a threat to run before the calf injury, though he’s even more challenged in that regard now.
We’ll see if Tee Higgins ($6,600) plays after leaving last week’s game with a rib injury. If he’s out, we’ll see Tyler Boyd ($4,500) emerge as a potentially popular value play, and it’ll be easier to stack Ja’Marr Chase ($7,900) with Burrow. I still like Higgins if he suits up. His target share is still solid (22.3%), but he’s caught just 39% of the throws that have come his way. Burrow’s lack of accuracy is alarming, but I’ll go right back to the well given the volume.
This isn’t projected to be among the faster-paced games on the slate, but the fact that it’ll take place in the dome, plus the excellent matchup, has me interested in going back to Burrow and the Bengals.