NFL DFS Role Change Report: Reviewing Week 10
The snap counts, targets, air yards, and usage statistics we see for NFL players has a significant impact on our decisions for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. NFL DFS is a game where opportunity is king, and it is important for us to know if the situation has changed for any of the players. Each week in NFL DFS will show us a few players who have changes in their snap percentage and other key stats. In this article, we will look back at how these stats could impact future NFL projections and projected ownership.
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Let’s use the RotoGrinders Usage App from JoshADHD to rewind and take stock of how usage for a few players changed this week in NFL DFS.
Today’s NFL DFS Snaps, Targets, and Air Yards Change Report
D’Andre Swift
NFL Team: Detroit Lions
Position: RB
Snap Percentage: 73% in Week 10
Key Passing Game Usage Stat: 4-5 targets in each of the last six games
Key Running Game Usage Stat: 76.2% market share of rushes in Week 10
It is tough to fully trust a coaching staff that still plays Adrian Peterson so much, but it was hopefully a sign of things to come when they announced prior to their Week 10 game that Swift would be the “starter”. And sure enough, he ended up seeing a drastic difference in his snap percentage. See below the snap percentages for their three main running backs, spanning Week 6 to Week 9.
Swift: 38%, 45%, 62%, 40%
Peterson: 35%, 31%, 20%, 27%
Johnson: 22%, 23%, 18%, 33%
Hello three-man running back by committee! The good news for Swift though (we hope) is that yesterday was completely different.
Swift: 73%
Peterson: 12%
Johnson: 15%
Swift turned all of those snaps into his highest rushing attempts all season (16), his highest market share of rushes (76.2%), and his highest market share of opportunities (39.6%).
He is clearly the superior RB in this Detroit backfield, and he contributes in the passing game as well. As I have listed above, he has between 4-5 targets in each of his last six games.
On tap for Week 11 is a favorable matchup against Carolina. They have allowed the most receptions to opposing running backs in the entire league, which is part of the reason why they have also allowed the fourth most fantasy points per game to the position. Swift is just $6,900 on FanDuel and $6,400 on DraftKings.
Salvon Ahmed
NFL Team: Miami Dolphins
Position: RB
Snap Percentage: 76% in Week 10
Key Running Game Usage Stat:21 rush attempts in Week 10
With Myles Gaskin (hurt), Matt Breida (hurt), and Jordan Howard (healthy scratch) all inactive in Week 10, it was Ahmed’s backfield against the Chargers.
After spreading things around to a bunch of different running backs in Week 9 (Ahmed 46% of snaps; Howard 38%; Patrick Laird 20%), the Dolphins coaching staff apparently made the decision to go full steam ahead with Ahmed yesterday. Ahmed saw 76% of the snaps against the Chargers, rushed the ball 21 times (the next closest running back had two), and was the only running back to see a target.
For Ahmed to maintain fantasy relevance moving forward, he will obviously need those aforementioned bodies to remain sidelined. Gaskin isn’t scheduled to return until Week 12, and it appears the Dolphins coaching staff has seen enough of Howard. So that probably leaves us monitoring the hamstring injury that Matt Breida is dealing with.
For Week 11, Miami is visiting the Denver Broncos. Ahmed is $5,600 on FanDuel and $4,800 on DraftKings.
Kalen Ballage
NFL Team: Los Angeles Chargers
Position: RB
Snap Percentage: 63% in Week 10
Key Passing Game Usage Stat: 6 targets in Week 10
Key Running Game Usage Stat: 66.7% market share of rushes in Week 10
It has been a wild journey in the Chargers backfield this season. Austin Ekeler went on the IR in after Week 4. Justin Jackson played three snaps in Week 9 before leaving with a knee injury that has put him on the IR too.
If you recall prior to that Week 9 game, Ballage was promoted from the practice squad to provide RB depth (behind Jackson and Joshua Kelley) since Troymaine Pope was out with a concussion. Fast forward two games and Ballage has suddenly taken over the backfield!
With Jackson going down so early in Week 9, Kelley saw 54% of the snaps to Ballage’s 39%. And then yesterday in Week 10, Ballage surged ahead of Kelley to play 46 snaps compared to just 17 for Kelley. Pope, who was active, was only used on special teams.
On those 46 snaps yesterday, Ballage saw a total of 23 touches. He rushed the ball 18 times for 68 yards and caught five of his six targets for 34 yards. If these trends continue, he could be in line for even more work in Week 11 against the hapless New York Jets. Ballage is just $5,800 on FanDuel and $5,600 on DraftKings.
Image Credit: Imagn
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