NFL DFS Run Game Matchups Report: Week 12
Does defense matter in NFL DFS? It’s certainly not as influential in between the margins as we once thought, but there is still value on the extremes. When we find the soft spots, we can sometimes capitalize on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. Using GridironIQ, we can easily locate teams that present enhanced probability of fantasy point production.
- Build DFS Lineups Like a Pro!
- Access to Content and LineupHQ
- NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA
In combination with projections and projected ownership, we can layer on a level headed review of run game matchups to help us make our choices for Sunday’s daily fantasy football contests. Let’s take a look at some top matchups for this coming week.
Week 12 NFL DFS Run Game Matchups Report
Todd Gurley
Opponent: Las Vegas Raiders
Rush DVOA (Rank): 32nd
Expected Points Added (Rank): 7th
Rush Yards Allowed (Rank): 22nd
Fpts Allowed to RB (Rank): 4th
UPDATE – Todd Gurley has been ruled out, so fire up Brian Hill!
Well, the matchup is about as good as it gets on the Sunday main slate. The Raiders rank dead last in Rush Defense DVOA and allow the fourth most fantasy points to opposing running backs. All three teams who allow more fantasy points to this position (Lions, Packers, Texans) are not on the main slate (the Packers are on the Yahoo main slate).
That being said, it isn’t like Gurley is going to be any sort of smash play though. Of course, a lot of that has to do with how the Falcons limit his snaps. He has played more than 70% of the team’s snaps in exactly one game this season (Week 7). Things bottomed out last week against the Saints, as he saw just 23 snaps (37%) and was out-snapped by Brian Hill (26 snaps). It certainly didn’t help that the Falcons ran just 59 plays either, but 37% of snaps is still very concerning.
So for Gurley to get you there this weekend at $6,900 on FanDuel and $5,500 on DraftKings, you are going to need to see a spike in the snaps and/or the efficiency. The latter should certainly be aided by such a favorable matchup. For what it’s worth, $5,500 is the lowest his salary has been all season on DraftKings. If Julio Jones is forced to miss this Sunday’s game, you’d have to think that helps Gurley at least a little bit.
Jonathan Taylor
Opponent: Tennessee Titans
Rush DVOA (Rank): 18th
Expected Points Allowed (Rank): 11th
Rush Yards Allowed (Rank): 15th
Fpts Allowed to RB (Rank): 11th
UPDATE – Jonathan Taylor has been placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 List, so he will now be out for Week 12.
The Titans have given up the 11th most fantasy points using DraftKings scoring, but it bumps up to seventh if you look at FanDuel. A lot of that has to do with the differences in scoring format. Whereas the Titans have only allowed the seventh least receptions to opposing running backs, they have allowed the eighth most rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs. So while the matchup is neutral at worst and above average at best, how you treat Taylor this weekend is still going to mainly come down to whether you believe his Week 11 usage means he is back in the good graces of the Colts coaching staff again.
Taylor saw his highest snap rate (56%) since Week 6 (59%), but it was his volume that was the real eye-opener. He saw 22 rushes, which was his highest since the 26 he saw in Week 2. And it’s not like it was a favorable game-script or anything either, as the Colts were trailing most of the game (okay, the three rushes in overtime certainly helped). He also caught all four of his targets for 24 yards. When it was all said and done, his 26 touches were the third most in Week 11, trailing only Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry.
You can certainly make the case that this is a great opportunity to buy low on Taylor in what is a pretty favorable matchup. Of course, on the other hand, I wouldn’t blame you for saying…
Dalvin Cook
Opponent: Carolina Panthers
Rush DVOA (Rank): 22nd
Expected Points Allowed (Rank): 14th
Rush Yards Allowed (Rank): 10th
Fpts Allowed to RB (Rank): 5th
We might as well save the best for last, right? Not that Cook needs it or anything, but the Panthers present a favorable matchup too considering they allow the fifth most fantasy points to this position.
One noteworthy stat that popped up in GridironIQ is that offenses against Carolina have the sixth highest RushTD% in the league (46.67%). So almost half of the touchdowns this defense has allowed this season have been on the ground. And when the Vikings get close to the end zone, it is Dalvin Cook time. His 15 rushing attempts inside the five-yard line lead the league. His 23 rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line are second in the league.
So when you factor in how many times Cook touches the ball on a weekly basis (30+ touches in three of the last four games…nbd really), this matchup just screams “multi-score game” for Cook in Week 12. Considering how expensive he is, you are certainly going to need it!