NFL DFS Run Game Matchups Report: Week 8
Does defense matter in NFL DFS? It’s certainly not as influential in between the margins as we once thought, but there is still value on the extremes. When we find the soft spots, we can sometimes capitalize on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. Using GridironIQ, we can easily locate teams that present enhanced probability of fantasy point production.
In combination with projections and projected ownership, we can layer on a level headed review of run game matchups to help us make our choices for Sunday’s daily fantasy football contests. Let’s take a look at some top matchups for this coming week.
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Week 8 NFL DFS Run Game Matchups Report
Kareem Hunt
Opponent: Las Vegas Raiders
Rush DVOA (Rank): 29th
Expected Points Added (Rank): 6th
Rush Yards Allowed (Rank): 16th
Fpts Allowed to RB (Rank): 2nd
While the math is the math, it is still worth noting that a lot of the damage done to the Raiders from opposing running backs was in the earlier weeks of the season.
In Week 1, it was Christian McCaffrey (28.50 DraftKings points). In Week 2, it was Alvin Kamara (38.40 DraftKings points). In Week 3, it was actually a combination of two Patriots, if you can believe that; Rex Burkhead had 34.80 DraftKings points and Sony Michel had 19 DraftKings points. Since then, they have improved a little bit in that regard.
Week 4: Devin Singletary, 18.70 DraftKings points
Week 5: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, 11 DraftKings points
Week 6: bye week
Week 7: Leonard Fournette, 15.70 DraftKings points; Ronald Jones, 10.60 DraftKings points
I still tend to believe this is a great matchup for Hunt though, especially when looking at their Rush DVOA ranking (29th). And if nothing else, Hunt gets the added benefit of three key skill position players being out this week (Chubb and Odell are out; Hooper is doubtful). When it comes down to it, Hunt is likely to be quite chalky at the running back position this week.
Dalvin Cook
Opponent: Green Bay Packers
Rush DVOA (Rank): 22nd
Expected Points Allowed (Rank): 11th
Rush Yards Allowed (Rank): 20th
Fpts Allowed to RB (Rank): 1st
The Projected Ownership on Cook is the one I am most following this week, as my guess is that a combination of several factors keeps his ownership somewhat in check this week. For one, there will be other options at this position that are a bit more appealing, mainly due to the fact that they are cheaper.
Secondly, it’s been a hot second since we have had Cook in our DFS lives. He went down with an injury midway through their Week 5 game, and that same injury caused him to sit out all of Week 6. Throw in a Week 7 bye, and you see what I’m talking about.
And lastly, the time away and the injury itself are probably resulting in projection systems across the industry (including our own) baking in a little risk to his snap percentage. That will cause his median projection to drop down a little compared to what you’d see at a full workload, which is naturally going to drop his ownership.
But there is no doubting that this is plus matchup for Cook. After all, no team has given up more fantasy points to opposing running backs this season than the Green Bay Packers. Maybe the Vikings #LetDalvinCook in his first game back after a few weeks off.
Jonathan Taylor
Opponent: Detroit Lions
Rush DVOA (Rank): 23rd
Expected Points Allowed (Rank): 4th
Rush Yards Allowed (Rank): 10th
Fpts Allowed to RB (Rank): 4th
This matchup really intrigues me for Taylor. The reason I say that is because a lot of the time you will see the ‘Fpts Allowed to RB’ ranking a little inflated due to how much that defense allows to running backs in the passing game. As we know, that isn’t exactly Taylor’s specialty at this point in his career.
However, that isn’t the case with the Lions. They’ve actually allowed the eighth fewest receptions to opposing running backs this season (in six games, mind you). On the ground though, they have already allowed 685 yards and seven touchdowns to opposing running backs, which is in the bottom third of the league for both statistics and in one fewer game than most of the other teams around them.
Taylor, too, could be a forgotten this week with all eyes on other options at this position. The Colts are coming off of their bye week, and Taylor was uninspiring the week before against the Bengals. I find his mid tier price tags on both FanDuel ($7,300) and DraftKings ($6,600) very appealing.