Utilizing NFL DFS Sims for Week 12 DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups
NFL DFS Sims has arrived in the form of SimLabs. You can learn more about how to utilize SimLabs by reading our DFS Sims FAQ.
Where an optimizer generates lineups via user customization and the user grades the lineups, SimLabs simulates the field and rates the lineups for the user.
Every week, we’ll take a late look at the SimLabs output and briefly discuss any takeaways. For Week 12, we’ll discuss stacking observations.
I ran the default settings for large-field contests with a low results range and we got a lot of Jaguars clumping on DraftKings and a lot of Eagles on FanDuel. Makes sense.
The Jags are cheap. They’re in a competitive game environment. They project well. Trevor Lawrence projects for 14.5 / 12.0% ownership on DK / FD though.
The Eagles are expensive but also in a competitive environment and project very well, but Jalen Hurts projects for 20.2% ownership on FD.
The best way to play Lawrence and Hurts in MME is probably the way the sims are spitting out how to play them. But let’s see what happens when we adjust:
- The results range from low to medium
- The simulation weight from 75 to 85
- The projection weight from 25 to 15
- The ownership weight from 20 to 15
- The upside weight from 10 to 85
- The correlation weight from 10 to 33
Click here to create advanced DFS lineups with the power of SimLabs for NFL Week 11!
The Jaguars on DK
Exposure to Lawrence comes down from the 40s to ~25%, while Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley stay about the same. Actually, we get over 15% exposure to Kirk, Ridley, and Evan Engram, so the double stack is very much in play.
And 22 of the top-50 rated lineups (44%, duh) are Lawrence lineups, so fading him will be an unorthodox path if we’re considering that (Don’t consider that).
There’s also a risk tolerance element to going underweight on the Jags stack. With that said, 28 of the top-50 lineups were not primarily Jags stacks. Surprisingly, only three were Texans stacks with Jag run backs.
If you’re wondering which stack had the second-highest exposure in the top-50, it was the Colts with 12%. Not surprising, since the sims had Gardner Minshew as the second-highest exposed QB (10.67%) in the 150-set, Jonathan Taylor as the top-exposed RB (43.33%), and Michael Pittman (10.67%) and Josh Downs (12.67%) catching a sizable amount of ownership themselves.
On DK, the Jags (64.00%) and the Colts (62.67%) were the teams to which the 150-set was most exposed by far. Hurts only had 6.67% exposure and the Eagles were the sixth-highest exposed team (40.00%), despite having the second-highest Opto%.
It’s astonishing to see exactly how much salary will handcuff the field on DK this week. But it makes sense because value isn’t abundant and obvious, so the field will be looking to their stacks for it.
The Eagles on FD
I want to be heavier on the Eagles on FD and heavier on the Jags on DK. I’m not an MME player, as my thing is mostly single-entry, three-max, and 20-max though. There is a difference in that going 40% on a stack in 20-max for eight lineups is a different strategy from going 40% in 150-max for 60 lineups.
I set this up because we’re not discussing how many of the 150 lineups you should be playing a particular stack. We’re just discussing observations from a simulation. And this simulation says “to hell with pricing,” we’re playing the:
- $8,800, 20.2%-owned Hurts at 27.33%;
- $8,800, 24.6%-owned A.J. Brown at 28.00%; and
- $7,400, 8.6%-owned DeVonta Smith at 22.00%.
This is very aggressive, going even with the field on very expensive chalk.
Lawrence is very present in this sim as well (at 18.00% exposure), but Jags exposure is fifth highest at 48.67%, whereas the Eagles are second at 54.00%.
The Colts are the highest at 62.00%, but that’s largely because of Taylor’s 48.00% exposure.
Where are We Saving on FD?
After the Eagles and Jags exposure, we’re most-exposed to the Chiefs.
They’re expensive too!
I love the Eagles and Chiefs and am usually salary-ignorant, but we need some savings to act like this. The savings aren’t extreme, but we can stack them up to get what we want.
Under $7,000, there are:
- Javonte Williams ($6,400), 33.33% exposure
- Dalton Kincaid ($6,000), 28.67%
- Isiah Pacheco ($6,600), 26.67%
- Nico Collins (6,900), 21.33%
- James Conner ($6,600), 16.33%
- Rashee Rice ($5,700), 16.00%
- Evan Engram ($5,800), 12.67%
- Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,800), 7.33%
You get the point. The stumbling block for me on spending up for a stack is that there isn’t a great low-owned stack to spend up. Couple that with everyone being on the same value, and I’m struggling to find leverage in these Eagles and Chiefs builds
It’s in the Syllabus
Visit our SimLabs Discord channel to read the discussions people are having about their experience and raise any questions. With that said, the SimLabs FAQ is extraordinarily fantastic. A lot of questions can be answered by the FAQ. Please consult it, but feel free to post your questions. Especially the one that you think might seem stupid. We’re all in this together.