NFL DFS Stack Spotlight: Week 12
Stacking is an essential part of NFL DFS. Each week it is important that we identify the best available correlations and apply them carefully to our DFS lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. The RotoGrinders LineupHQ Optimizer has a stacking feature we can use to locate high quality options each week, and we’ll use it now to discuss three of the top options from our NFL projections. We can then compare that to the projected ownership to help make our decisions for daily fantasy football.
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Week 12 DFS Stacks Report
Buffalo Bills
Top Players to Stack: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs
Projected Fantasy Points: 39.74 FanDuel/Yahoo, 45.36 DraftKings
Opponent: Los Angeles Chargers
Top Bring Backs: Keenan Allen, Kalen Ballage, Mike Williams
Expected Ownership: high
In our LineupHQ Stack Finder, Allen and Diggs come in with the highest projection of any QB + 1 RB/WR/TE combination on DraftKings, while they have the second highest on FanDuel (behind only Cousins/Cook). Considering they have the second highest team total on the slate (29 points), you can absolutely throw another pass-catcher into your stack if you so choose. Since John Brown may miss this Week 12 matchup with an ankle injury, the other guy you’d be looking at here would probably be Cole Beasley.
Through his 10 games with the Bills this season, Diggs has seen at least nine targets in seven of them. The other three games were a 6, a 7, and an 8, so you know the guy is going to see plenty of volume. In the last four games specifically, he has seen somewhere between 9-12 targets each time. His floor is absolutely stellar (which is something we definitely couldn’t say last season in Minnesota); he has yet to register below double-digit DraftKings points all season with Buffalo.
There are a few things of note that might cause you to give a hard look at an underweight stance here though. For one, the Chargers have been stellar against wide receivers this season, allowing the fifth fewest fantasy points to the position (the matchup IS factored into our projections though). And secondly, an early run of our Projected Ownership has this duo with the second highest pOWN% on the entire slate. At such expensive price tags for both, that would have me at least a little bit concerned.
Kansas City Chiefs
Top Players to Stack: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce
Projected Fantasy Points: 48.75 FanDuel/Yahoo, 57.91 DraftKings
Opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Top Bring Backs: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown
Expected Ownership: low
This appears to be another week that you will be able to get one of the highest ceilings of any trio in the league at very modest ownership. An early run of our Projected Ownership on DraftKings has these guys at the follow numbers:
Mahomes: 8.4%
Hill: 6.5%
Kelce: 12.9%
Not that I care much about matchups when it comes to this juggernaut Chiefs offense, but there’s a possibility that the Bucs defense isn’t quite as imposing as everyone might think. They got slaughtered by the Saints in Week 9, allowing 38 points. Last week against the Rams, they gave up 27 points and absolutely monster fantasy performances to Robert Woods (33.6 DraftKings points) and Cooper Kupp (28.5 DraftKings points). Oddsmakers tend to agree, as the Chiefs have the highest team total on the slate (approaching 30 points).
Projected Ownership on DraftKings appears to be flocking towards Dalvin Cook. And since he is $9,500, DFS players just aren’t going to have the salary to pay up for Mahomes ($8,000), Hill ($7,800), and Kelce ($7,000). And if you feel that those price tags are too expensive to get the kind of profit potential you are looking for, you can always drop one of them off and bring in a cheaper option (e.g. Watkins, Robinson, Hardman).
Carolina Panthers
Top Players to Stack: Teddy Bridgewater, Robby Anderson, Mike Davis
Projected Fantasy Points: 46.08 FanDuel/Yahoo, 53.27 DraftKings
Opponent: Minnesota Vikings
Top Bring Backs: Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson
Expected Ownership: low
I listed the Bridgewater/Anderson/Davis trio just so I could get their projection down for purposes of this article, but the fact of the matter is that I think you can stack any two of Robby Anderson, DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, and Mike Davis with Bridgewater (who is due to return after missing last week with a knee injury) this week against the Vikings. With Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson (assuming Thielen is out) projected to be the two highest owned guys on the slate, these Panthers options make for great bring-backs in their own right.
With Christian McCaffrey expected to be out at least another game, Mike Davis will see the bulk of the work in the Carolina backfield (while also being plenty involved in the passing game). You can certainly make a case for any of the other pass-catchers too, but I will make my case for Anderson. He leads the team in market share of targets on the season (26.4%), and the same can be said for the last four weeks as well (26.7%). He is also cheaper than Moore, dramatically so on FanDuel ($900). Moore slightly edges out Anderson in air yards though (40.2% of the market share this season, compared to 35.6% for Anderson), so the upside is clearly there for him as well.
Perhaps the best part about these Panthers is their Projected Ownership. An early run on DraftKings has the three wide receivers (Anderson, Moore, Samuel) all at 10% or below. Bridgewater has basically no ownership, but perhaps that comes up as the public feels better about his health as Sunday inches closer. Davis projects for the highest ownership of any Panther, but it’s only at 14.6%. I don’t think it’s possible for me to like this game-stack more.