NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel - Thanksgiving Day
NFL DFS season is in full swing as Week 12 approaches, and our expert analysts are breaking down NFL DFS lineup optimizer picks and projections for FanDuel and DraftKings. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
Happy Thanksgiving slate! We have three great divisional matchups this year headlined by the 49ers/Seahawks in primetime, and a couple of big injuries at the RB position has opened up some nice value already. Aaron Jones and Kenneth Walker are both likely out, paving the way for huge Dillon and Charbonnet workloads. For now it’s sounding like Geno Smith should be ready to go with his elbow injury.
Let’s get into some of my favorite plays of the slate!
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks for DraftKings
With all three games having 7+ point spreads, we have three clear top DST choices, and for the price, I’ll be paying up for the Dallas DST ($3,800) against the sack-prone Howell. The Lions DST ($3,200) would be my next choice if you need the $600 in salary, while SF ($3,600) is a strong GPP play against the Walker-less Seahawks. It should be pretty easy fitting in at least two of McCaffrey ($8,700), Lamb ($8,700), and St. Brown ($8,500) with all the value available, and at QB Prescott ($6,800) is the clear safest cash game play, while Purdy ($6,100) is my favorite GPP play.
Jayden Reed ($4,200)
As big road underdogs facing a Lions defense that has been worse against the pass than the run, Reed is one of my favorite value WRs who should see an even bigger role with Jones likely out. Reed’s seen 5+ targets in three of the last four games, and they’re starting to find creative ways to get the ball in his hands as evidenced by his three rushing attempts last week that he turned into 46 yards and a touchdown. He’s gone for 11+ FP in four of the last five games, and with a role that continues to increase and a game script that should heavily favor the Packers passing game, Reed is a top WR value this slate.
Zach Charbonnet ($5,300)
It’s never comfortable touting an RB against the 49ers, who are allowing just 81.4 rush yards/game, but if someone this cheap is looking at 20+ touches that includes a likely 5-10 targets, he has to be considered a top-value play in any matchup. Charbonnet is looking at a workhorse role now with Walker out indefinitely (oblique), and even last week, when both guys were in, he saw 5 targets and went for over 10 FP, so just on volume alone, we’re likely starting with a 10-15 FP floor. As 7-point home underdogs, game script and matchup should help Zach see a ton of short targets, and if he can find the endzone for the first time this year, it will be hard to win or cash any type of contest without him.
George Kittle ($6,000)
After starting the year relatively slow, Kittle is back to being the TE1 we know he can be going for 22+ FP in three straight games, and with 24 targets over that stretch I think he’s by far the safest TE for cash games on this slate. I think all of LaPorta, Ferguson, and Thomas are worth having exposure to in GPPs if you’re doing MME (mass multi-entry), but for one lineup, Kittle is my top choice, as he can smash value on one long TD.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks for FanDuel
With just three games, it’s no surprise a lot of the same top plays are on both sites, starting with the Cowboys DST ($5,000) for cash games and the Lions DST ($4,000) for GPPs. McCaffrey ($9,800) is actually priced correctly though and will be harder to jam in with one or both of the top WRs, but Kittle ($7,200) isn’t priced up high enough compared to the other TE options for him not to remain my favorite cash game target at that position.
Brock Purdy ($7,700)
I think in order to fit in CMC and at least one of Lamb/St. Brown in your main build, saving a bit of salary at QB makes the most sense. At $800 cheaper than Dak, Purdy has a great shot of putting up similar production or being an even better p/$ play, as he’s gone for 20+ FP in three straight games, and I think this game ends up being closer than the 7-point spread.
Tony Pollard ($7,200)
Pollard finally found the endzone last week after his eight-game drought, and draws another favorable matchup at home against a Commanders defense allowing 114.3 rush yards/game. I think he’s just too cheap to fade in cash games, and I think using him with CMC and Charbonnet in the RB/Flex spots is the way to go in cash games.
DK Metcalf ($7,000)
Metcalf should be on pretty much any lineup you build that omits Charbonnet for max leverage on the field, and for cash games, I really don’t mind using both. This 49ers defense has been much weaker in the passing game than the run game and just lost top safety Talanoa Hufanga, so if Seattle has any chance of keeping this game competitive I think it will be mostly through Metcalf and Charbonnet.
Use Our DFS Lineup Optimizer for the Thanksgiving Slate
Make sure to check out our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer for this slate, LineupHQ, to get a great look at even more top projected plays. It is by far the best place to build a large number of lineups quickly using your personalized build rules, ownership preferences, and stacks you want covered. You can also look at projected ownership to help you decide between players if you’d rather get leverage on the field with someone likely to see much lower ownership than similar plays at his position or price point.
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