Noto's NFL DFS Key Personnel: Week 1

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2025-09-05 17:32:27 Premium Content Part of the product NFL DFS

A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article for Week 1, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming featured slate.

It is a good day, my friends. In fact, it’s the best day. The NFL season is finally here, and for the next 18 weeks we get to watch and sweat games at least three days a week. The season always flies by, so let’s make the most of it — and hopefully get off to a hot start together.

On a personal note, life looks a lot different than it did 18 months ago. Back then, it was just me and my son. Last summer, I fell head over cleats for the girl of my dreams. Fast-forward to today, and I’m lucky enough to have a beautiful baby girl (Murphy — shout-out Interstellar) and a family of five. It’s been a wild ride but in all the best ways — much like a Sunday sweat in DFS that goes your way.

Speaking of wild rides, I pulled the real-life version of registering for a DFS contest and forgetting to enter a lineup. I was in the drive-thru line at Costa Vida and was loving life — I had an NFL podcast on, I was tracking the U.S. Open tennis matches, and I was scrolling through our NFL DFS projections in LineupHQ.

I was in the zone. Locked in.

There was a long line, but I finally got to the window and handed the worker my credit card. Five minutes later, I was halfway home and looked over to see an empty passenger seat. Immediate panic set in. I paid for the food and drove right off without it. Everyone working there that night had a nice laugh.

OK, that’s enough small talk. Let’s dive into Week 1!

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NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Week 1

Since we’ve been studying these teams, players, and coaches all summer, everyone thinks they know what is going to happen in the NFL this season. I’ll let you in on a little secret — nobody knows exactly how the season is going to play out.

While projections are important, they are more fragile in the first 2 weeks than they are at any other point of the season. No matter what we’ve seen or read from training camp and preseason games, we don’t really know how these teams and players are going to perform come Week 1.

In other words, don’t be a slave to projections. You should worry more about building correlation into your lineups rather than finding the highest median projection possible, especially if you are playing tournaments.

Top Quarterback Plays

As is usually the case with Week 1, the pricing is quite soft on both FanDuel and DraftKings. This is one of those weeks that you are going to like the way your lineups look. With the softer pricing, it’s crucial to hit on every position, especially at quarterback.

We can’t afford to get 10 fantasy points from our signal-caller when there will surely be QBs putting up games of 30+ fantasy points this week. I personally like targeting the mid/upper tier of quarterbacks.

Tier 1 – Core Plays

There are 2 quarterbacks that I prefer above all others this week.

We’ll start with Jayden Daniels, who won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award last season and led his team to the NFC title game. He threw for 3,500 yards, ran for 890 yards, and racked up 31 total touchdowns. He should be in for an excellent sophomore season, as the Commanders shored up their offensive line by signing Laremy Tunsil and drafting Josh Conerly in the 1st round. The team also brought in Deebo Samuel to give Daniels another weapon in the passing game. The Giants do have a good defensive line, but that could be viewed as a positive for Daniels, as it could lead to more rushing attempts. The Commanders are at home and have the 2nd-highest implied team total on the main slate.

On a point-per-dollar basis, Trevor Lawrence sticks out like a sore thumb. I haven’t loved my experience as a Jaguars fan over the last 10 years, but there’s a glimmer of hope heading into this season. They brought in Liam Coen as the head coach, who had previously served as the offensive coordinator for the Buccaneers. He helped turn Baker Mayfield’s career around, so perhaps he can do the same for Lawrence. They also traded up to get potential star Travis Hunter with the 2nd overall pick in the draft. Lawrence opens the season with a cupcake matchup at home against the Panthers, who were 31st in both EPA per dropback allowed and PFF’s grades against the pass last season. He pairs nicely with one of my favorite wide receivers (Brian Thomas Jr.).

Tier 2 – Strong Plays

I went back and forth on whether to include Drake Maye in Tier 1. Many compare Maye’s skill set to that of Josh Allen, and it’s easy to see why. He’s a quarterback with a big arm who can make plays with his feet. After a successful rookie season, Maye could be in for a breakout sophomore campaign. The Patriots used the 4th overall pick on left tackle Will Campbell, they brought back Josh McDaniels as the offensive coordinator, and they added Stefon Diggs to the receiving corps. I like the projected pace of this game against the Raiders, who are expected to have one of the worst defenses in the league.

Much to my detriment, I didn’t target Joe Burrow in DFS very often last season. I have a difficult time targeting pure pocket passers who aren’t value plays. It’s a mental block that I need to get over this season, as the Bengals are set to have one of the best offenses in the league. Burrow scored the 3rd-most fantasy points of any quarterback last season. He has 3 truly elite weapons in the passing game (Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown). If this team continues to have one of the highest PROEs (pass rate above expectation), Burrow will be a strong option every week. The Bengals have the highest implied team total of any team on the Week 1 main slate, as they’ll square off against the Browns.

Kyler Murray has been a DFS trap over the last few seasons. He’ll flash upside in difficult matchups when his ownership is next to nothing, then he’ll forget to show up in favorable matchups when his ownership is high. With that said, we have to avoid our biases as much as possible in DFS. All signs point to a strong season ahead for Murray, as this is his 3rd season under his current offensive coordinator, and he has 2 elite weapons to throw the ball to (Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride). The Saints’ defense is expected to be one of the worst in the league, and Murray gets to face them in the Superdome. His rushing upside is awfully enticing at his current price point.

Tier 3 – Sprinkle Plays

I’m not sure I’ll dip into this tier in my small-field and single-entry tournaments, but these 2 quarterbacks deserve consideration thanks to cheap price points.

Daniel Jones gets his first start as a member of the Indianapolis Colts. He has some rushing upside, has an offensive-minded head coach (Shane Steichen), and draws a favorable matchup at home against the Dolphins. He makes sense on a per-dollar basis.

Justin Fields is also starting fresh with a new team. He is now a member of the Jets and will get an immediate chance at revenge, as he faces his former team (Steelers) in Week 1. The Jets have a new head coach in Aaron Glenn (former Lions defensive coordinator) and have invested a lot of draft capital in their offensive line. This is not a great matchup on paper, but Fields has upside for 100+ rushing yards every time he takes the field. He’s one of the few quarterbacks that you don’t need to feel obligated to stack a receiver with.

🏈 Quarterbacks – Noto’s Notes

🏆 Core Plays: Jayden Daniels, Trevor Lawrence
🥈 Strong Plays: Drake Maye, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray
🥉 Sprinkle Plays: Daniel Jones, Justin Fields
📊 Ownership Angle: Daniels likely chalk → Murray could be a strong pivot

Top Running Back Plays

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