Noto's NFL DFS Key Personnel: Week 12

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2025-11-21 00:39:38 Premium Content Part of the product NFL DFS

A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article for Week 12, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming featured slate.

My friends, welcome back to the Key Personnel!

Week 11 was a lot of fun. I originally had Josh Allen tagged as a Core Play, but the heavy wind in Buffalo scared me enough to pivot away from him. I was kicking myself after the early games, as Allen threw for 3 touchdowns and ran for 3 touchdowns. Luckily, the quarterback that I pivoted to was Jacoby Brissett, who also had himself a great game. The Josh Jacobs injury proved costly (I was close to making a 2v2 swap that would have gotten Christian McCaffrey and Greg Dortch over Jacobs and Wan’Dale Robinson), but I still ended up having a profitable week. It feels like the tournament-winning week is near; we just need everything to come together.

The easy decision for our retired athlete who wore number 12 is Tom Brady, but I was never a fan of the Patriots during their dynasty. Living in Utah, I naturally liked to cheer for the Jazz. While some might say Pete Maravich or Karl Malone was the best Jazz player ever, I think that honor belongs to John Stockton. He racked up 15,806 assists during his career, which is a record that may never be broken. The next closest is Chris Paul at 12,528 assists. After providing DFS content for more than 15 years, I like to think I’ve racked up my fair share of DFS assists in my career. Let’s hope I get a few more assists by helping you win this week (and maybe even an alley-oop to myself).

As always, up-to-date NFL projections and our Expert Play tags can be found in our NFL DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. Cheers to Stockton week. Let’s dive into the picks.

Editor’s Note: Looking for more places to play? Check out our Underdog promo code and PrizePicks promo code, two of the best DFS apps available today.

NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Week 12

Top Quarterback Plays

Tier 1 – Core Plays

After a loss to the Broncos last week, the Chiefs have dropped to 5-5 on the season. They are in must-win mode the rest of the way, which should be great news for the fantasy production of Patrick Mahomes ($6,800 DK / $8,100 FD). All of his weapons are healthy, and he’s having his best fantasy season in years (he has topped 23 fantasy points in 7 of 10 games). He draws a decent matchup at home against the Colts, who are 22nd in PFF’s grades against the pass and 15th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Ultimately, I love betting on Mahomes to play well in must-win games.

Jacoby Brissett ($5,300 DK / $7,300 FD) has been incredible this season for the Cardinals, scoring at least 20 fantasy points in all five of his starts. Granted, he’s been the beneficiary of some excellent game scripts the last two weeks, but garbage time production counts just the same. He draws arguably his best matchup to date, as the Jaguars have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. With Marvin Harrison out, Brissett will have a concentrated target tree, which makes him extremely easy to stack with.

Tier 2 – Strong Plays

Jaxson Dart ($5,600 DK / $7,600 FD) is tentatively expected back this week after suffering a concussion in Week 10 against the Bears. His passing numbers might not jump off the page, but he has as much rushing upside as any quarterback in the league. He has scored 7 rushing touchdowns in 7 games and has topped 50 rushing yards in 5 of those games. The Giants haven’t been able to run the ball since Cam Skattebo went down with his injury. They are facing a pass-funnel defense in the Lions (22nd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, 1st in fantasy points allowed to running backs). It doesn’t hurt that this game is on the fast track in Detroit, as we won’t have to worry about the weather.

There’s still a lot of football left this season, but Drake Maye ($6,900 DK / $8,400 FD) is currently the second odds-on favorite to win the MVP. He’s having a great season statistically, and the Patriots are tied with the Broncos for the best record in the NFL. Maye offers a high floor (15+ fantasy points in 10 of 11 games) and might have the best matchup on the slate. The Bengals are 28th in pressure rate, 32nd in EPA against the pass, and 28th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Tier 3 – Sprinkle Plays

I plan to keep my player pool tight this week, but two more quarterbacks deserve consideration. Trevor Lawrence ($5,100 DK / $7,000 FD) has been volatile this season, but he’s cheap and has topped 20 fantasy points in 3 of his last 9 games. The Cardinals present a nice matchup, as they are 17th in PFF’s grades against the pass and 21st in EPA against the pass. I’ll probably just pay the little extra for Brissett on the other side of this game, but Lawrence projects as one of the better values at quarterback.

The Ravens have the second-highest team total (29 points) on the board and have struggled offensively in the last few games. This is the ultimate get-right spot for Lamar Jackson ($6,700 DK / $8,500 FD) and company. Given the way their offense has played recently, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them stay aggressive even if they are up multiple scores. This is the cheapest Jackson has been in a long time, and he’s facing a Jets team that is 27th in EPA allowed per dropback.

🏈 Quarterbacks – Noto’s Notes

🏆 Core Plays: Patrick Mahomes, Jacoby Brissett
💪 Strong Plays: Jaxson Dart, Drake Maye
🌧️ Sprinkle Plays: Trevor Lawrence, Lamar Jackson
% Ownership Angle: Very spread out pOWN at QB this week
🔗 Potential Pairings: Mahomes + Rice, Brissett + Wilson and/or McBride
❤️‍🩹 Key Injuries: Micheal Penix (O), Aaron Rodgers (Q)

Top Running Back Plays

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