Noto's NFL DFS Key Personnel: Week 9

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2025-10-31 01:52:58 Premium Content Part of the product NFL DFS

A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article for Week 9, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming featured slate.

We are officially halfway through the NFL season. While it’s sad that it’s half over, it’s great that we still have another half of the season left. Last week was an absolute roller coaster. My main team ended up cashing in tournaments despite getting 18 fantasy points from my three receivers and my defense… combined. Luckily, Bo Nix, Jonathan Taylor, Chase Brown, and Derrick Henry saved the day. The best part is that I wasn’t cashing with all afternoon games coming to a close, but then Bo Nix threw a late touchdown to push my lineup over the cash line. There are few better feelings than having a good week when you are expecting a bad one.

At this point, there’s no stopping the retired-athlete theme in this article’s introduction. We go from Black Mamba week (#8) to Drew Brees week (#9). This future Hall of Fame quarterback was best known for his accuracy, his knowledge of the game, and his ability to fight through injuries. He had plenty of memorable quotes throughout his career, but these were two of my favorites:

“When you wake up every day, you have two choices — you can be positive or negative; an optimist or a pessimist. I choose to be an optimist.”

“You’ve got to love the grind. Because when you love the process, the results will come.”

Brees week is all about staying positive and trusting the process.

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NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Week 9

The pricing has gotten progressively tighter as the season has progressed, but roster construction comes a little easier in Week 9 than it did in Week 8. After building a few shell lineups, this looks like a week where we don’t have to punt at tight end and defense. We have strong values at quarterback and running back, which really helps on the roster construction front. I’ll keep my core play tags updated in our NFL DFS optimizer, LineupHQ.

Top Quarterback Plays

This is a great week at quarterback, because there are viable options at every price point. You can spend up (specifically on the quarterbacks in the Chiefs-Bills game), you can target the middle range, or you can look to save salary with the value plays. As is usually the case, ownership at the position is very spread out. We don’t need to worry about pivoting away from any quarterback chalk in tournaments.

Tier 1 – Core Plays

Caleb Williams ($5,700 DK / $7,300 FD) is coming off two poor outings in a row, but he wasn’t on my radar in either of those games. He’s treated us well when he’s been featured in the Key Personnel article. One of the main statistics to look at in his matchups is the opponent’s pressure rate. When he’s not under pressure, he’s a very good quarterback. He should have plenty of time in the pocket against the Bengals, who are bottom 5 in almost any pass-rush metric that you can find. They are also 31st in EPA allowed per dropback and 25th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. A few of his wideouts are on the injury report, but one or two being out could actually be a positive, as it will be easier to build stacks with him.

Geno Smith ($4,600 DK / $6,500 FD) got off to a nice start this season, but he’s been held under 10 fantasy points in each of the last 3 games. While not ideal, there are plenty of positives here. This is the lowest his salary has been all season, he’s expected to have his star tight end back in the lineup, and he draws a favorable matchup at home. The Jaguars are 14th in EPA allowed per dropback and 30th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. If Smith can throw for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns (which isn’t a high bar), he will easily exceed salary-based expectations.

Tier 2 – Strong Plays

Patrick Mahomes ($7,100 DK / $8,500 FD) is having one of his best seasons ever, which is scary given how great he’s been throughout his career. After flashing very little upside the last few years during the regular season, he has already topped 23 fantasy points in 7 of 8 games this season. He’s had at least 28 rushing yards in 6 games already, and now he has his best wideout back in the lineup. This is a big game for the Chiefs, as they square off against the Bills in a battle of two AFC giants. I will note that Buffalo is 3rd in EPA allowed per dropback and 2nd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, but this is Mahomes we are talking about.

Jaxson Dart ($5,200 DK / $7,400 FD) is projected as the top point-per-dollar option in a lot of projection models this week. I like him fine on paper, but there are some concerns here. He’s going to be without his best wideout (Malik Nabers) and his best running back (Cam Skattebo). He’s also been quiet on the rushing front in the last 2 games, which is something to keep an eye on moving forward. The positives are a cheap price point and a matchup against the Niners, who are 25th in EPA allowed per dropback.

Tier 3 – Sprinkle Plays

Remember a few weeks ago when we thought the Jaguars were good? That feels like a lifetime ago. Since then, they have had two bad losses against the Seahawks and Rams. And now we have trade rumors surrounding Brian Thomas Jr.. It’s sure fun to be a Jacksonville fan. Kidding aside, Trevor Lawrence ($5,400 DK / $6,900 FD) is in a good spot. The Jaguars are coming off a bye and draw a nice matchup against the Raiders, who are 26th in EPA allowed per dropback.

One of my favorite large-field tournament plays is Josh Allen ($7,300 DK / $8,900 FD). He’s so expensive that he’s garnering next to no ownership this week. We know that the best time to target Allen is in big games where we expect the opponent to keep the game competitive. In his last 3 games against the Chiefs, he has scored 25, 21, 30, and 40 fantasy points. If he hits that 35+ fantasy point ceiling, he could make a difference in GPPs.

🏈 Quarterbacks – Noto’s Notes

🏆 Core Plays: Caleb Williams, Geno Smith
💪 Strong Plays: Patrick Mahomes, Jaxson Dart
🌧️ Sprinkle Plays: Trevor Lawrence, Josh Allen
% Ownership Angle: QB pOWN is spread out; play your favorites
🔗 Potential Pairings: Williams + Odunze, Smith + Meyers
❤️‍🩹 Key Injuries: Joe Flacco (Q), Michael Penix (Q), Carson Wentz (O)

Top Running Back Plays

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