NFL DFS FanDuel Ownership Projections: Week 13 Preview
In this space, we’ll preview FanDuel ownership projections for the Sunday main slate of Week 13 of the NFL DFS season. We’ll look at chalk. We’ll look at contrarian plays. We’ll look at plays that should be owned more than they will be. We’ll look at plays that should be owned less than they should be.
This isn’t a comprehensive look at ownership throughout the slate, but a peek into what stands out. The reasoning behind the analysis can be applied to dozens of other players on the slate.
NFL DFS Week 13 FanDuel Ownership Preview
- Zack Moss ($5,600) – 42.84%
- Tua Tagovailoa ($8,400) – 17.67%
- C.J. Stroud ($8,000) – 14.56%
- Russell Wilson ($7,400) – 13.73%
- Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,500) – 8.43%
- Alvin Kamara ($8,300) – 8.54%
- Derrick Henry ($8,200) – 5.44%
Week 13 NFL DFS ownership projections for FanDuel are accurate at the time of publication and subject to change. Sign up for Premium to get updated ownership projections all the way to kickoff.
FanDuel Ownership Notes
Just Play the Cheap Megachalk
I don’t like the term “free square,” but a supersolid backup RB getting a bell-cow role due to the starter’s injury is a free square when the backup is ultra-cheap.
Zack Moss at $5,600 is the FanDuel being (reasonably) unprepared for Jonathan Taylor to be out for Week 13. In four starts this season, Moss averaged 111.3 rushing yards on 22.3 carries and 18 receiving yards on 2.5 targets. He’s averaging 4.8 YPC on the season and is a slight favorite against the Titans. Gardner Minshew is a fine QB, but he’s still a backup. The Colts aren’t gonna lean on the passing attack versus the run, out of the blue.
When great megachalk is priced as a punt, we just play them. Start with it in single-entry and consider the lock button in MME. I say, let others overthink this and be even or underweight on the field.
Let’s Talk About Stacks, Ba-bee
Stack ownership is highly reflected in QB ownership. It looks like there are five stacks we pretty much wanna play — the Dolphins, Eagles, Texans, Chargers, and Broncos. The game stack that most will target will be the Texans-Broncos game, as we see a ton of ownership floating in that direction. The Dolphins will be heavily owned as the top offense in the league facing the worst defense. And the Eagles will be owned simply because they’re the Eagles and might be matchup-proof, while the Chargers are just a way to target a Patriots squad that’s fallen apart.
Tua Tagovailoa, C.J. Stroud, and Russell Wilson are the chalk, while Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert will be higher-owned.
Two things:
#1 Wilson is dangerous chalk. He’s topped 19 FD pts just twice this season. This reeks of high opportunity cost, given Tagovailoa facing a horrible defense. Not saying the Tagovailoa is a lock, but he, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle are what we’re up against. Salary disparity isn’t really a thing on this FD slate, so I’m not sold that the savings on Broncos stacks covers that opportunity cost.
#2 If we wanna save and venture into a high-scoring environment with a lot of passing, there are always the Commanders stacks. Sam Howell has topped 18 FDpts in each of his last six — 20-plus in four of those. Washington will get blown out, so Howell should be passing a ton. Neither Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, nor Curtis Samuel project particularly well, but one of those three should get carried by Howell. This is an easy way to play Hill with correlation and save a little cash.
Low-Owned Studs
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Alvin Kamara, and Derrick Henry are way to spend up to be contrarian.
St. Brown won’t be at home, but he will be in the dome in New Orleans where crazy stuff happens all the time. He has 11, 11, 9, 9, 19, and 15 targets over his last six. Jared Goff also knows who his best guy is and forces it his way.
In that same game, Kamara is getting overlooked because of the price tag, but we can go cheap with Moss to free up salary off the bat and we’ve mentioned cheap Commanders to get us some more leash. Kamara is wildly volatile, but he’s gamescript-proof because of his potential activity in the passing game. He can break any slate with some volume.
Speaking of volume, Henry is a nut spot to dominate the ball. His team’s passing attack is hot garbage, they’re at home, and they’re only slight dogs. There’s so much potential for 20-plus touches and multiple TDs. Also, it’s December.