NFL DFS Week 13 Preview: Snap Counts, Air Yards, and Usage Facts
In this space, we’re gonna look at NFL snap counts and usage facts, including wide receiver air yards, to consider as you make NFL DFS picks and Week 12 projections.
Check out RotoGrinders’ NFL DFS Usage tool to view NFL air yards and snap counts for every player ahead NFL Week 12 — a free app for DFS players or sports bettors specializing in NFL props.
NFL DFS TIPS WEEK 13
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson vs. Broncos
It’s hard to love Lamar Jackson for the price in games where he shouldn’t have to run, like as -8.5 favorites vs. DEN. But Lamar is trying to get there with his arm as he did in his MVP season.
Lamar is currently tied for 7th in attempts of 20-plus yards (47) and aDOT (8.45). And we don’t have to stack with Mark Andrews every time. We can go cheaper to Demarcus Robinson (10.76 aDOT) and gamble on that deep ball.
Justin Herbert at Raiders
No QB in the NFL is dropping back more than Justin Herbert. His 503 dropbacks lead the league. They use his short stuff to Austin Ekeler as an extension of the run game. As only -2 favorites in Vegas, we should expect the ball in Herbert’s hands a ton in a shootout. And LV is dead-last by a wide margin in pass defense DVOA.
Trevor Lawrence at Lions
Games in Detroit have been lit, as the kids should say, for fantasy. JAX is a -1.5 favorite going into DET with a 51.5-point total. Trevor Lawrence has 40.2 dropbacks per game since Week 7 — 48 and 43 in their last two games. In a contentious shootout against a bad defense in a dome, he could in for a ceiling game. Over that span, Christian Kirk has 10, 7, 9, 12, and 9 targets; Zay Jones has 10, 3, 5, 10, and 14. So, there are definitely a couple of stacking partners in whom we could feel comfortable.
Running Back
Benny Snell at Falcons
If Najee Harris (abdomen) misses Week 13, Benny Snell is getting a whole mess of action, as Jaylen Warren (hamstring) could miss, as well. This is a Mike Tomlin with one RB situation. Historically, this has meant the predictable RB getting the ball a ton.
Gus Edwards vs. Broncos
Gus Edwards had 17 opportunities in Week 12 and Week 17. Whoop-tee-frickin-doo. No Ravens RB has had more than 17 in any week other than the 26 Kenyan Drake got in Week 9 as basically the only RB on the roster. This has been the Ravens M.O. — pretty much — since Ray Rice. Tempting spot with the highly positive gamescript, though.
Josh Jacobs vs. Chargers
We’ve seen Josh Jacobs role in a close loss in Week 10 — 29 opportunities.
We’ve seen Jacobs’ role in a close win in Week 11 — 28 opportunities.
We’ve seen Jacobs’ role in a shootout in Week 12 — 40 opportunities.
Unless LAC blows LV out — and the market is saying that won’t happen, Jacobs is in a great spot. LAC is 29th in run defense DVOA.
Jacobs (calf) is dealing with an injury, so just stay tuned to the news.
Christian McCaffrey vs. Dolphins
The 49ers wanna make the playoffs with a healthy Christian McCaffrey, but with Elijah Mitchell (knee) out, McCaffrey might need a full workload to get the W necessary to get them into the playoffs.
McCaffrey’s averaged 19.5 opportunities per game since Week 8 with SF, including 9, 6, 7, and 6 targets in each of those four games.
McCaffrey is dealing with “knee irritation” himself, but we shouldn’t be surprised if he took the week off from practice and dominated the ball on Sunday.
It isn’t nothing that SF is a -3.5 favorite.
Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Jaguars
It’s been no secret that Amon-Ra St. Brown was a monster to close out and start this season. Then, he got hurt, missed a little time, played decoy, then — BAM! — came back like a machine. Since seeming to get healthy, he’s seen 10, 9, 11, 8, and 10 targets with 44% of the little air yards there are to go around. JAX is 3rd-worst in pass defense DVOA, this game is in a dome, it should shoot out, this is a great spot.
Davante Adams vs. Chargers
This dude pissed me off. How do 70-plus points get scored in five quarters and Davante Adams not get 20 fantasy points?!?
Anyway, since Week 9, Adams’ 14 targets per game are miles ahead of the rest of the league — Stefon Diggs, 11.5; Justin Jefferson, 11.3; then, a bunch of guys with 10.0-to-10.3. His 142 air yards per game lead over this stretch, as well.
Tee Higgins vs. Chiefs
Tee Higgins with Ja’Marr Chase in — 7.3 targets per game, 10.20 aDOT.
Tee Higgins with Ja’Marr Chase out — 9.0 target per game, 11.74 aDOT.
The targets don’t jump off the screen to scream, TARGET MONSTER, but the uptick in an already high aDOT tells us that Joe Burrow trusts Higgins to drop bombs on offenses.
KC is a middle-of-the-road defense, but they don’t really force turnovers, so Burrow can gamble to Higgins with impunity in a shootout.
Tight End
T.J. Hockenson vs. Jets
There are three TE’s with eight-plus targets since the trading deadline:
Travis Kelce — 10.5
T.J. Hockenson — 8.5
Mark Andrews — 8.0
This is excellent company from a position we’ve called “Kelce, Andrews, and a bunch of guys.”
Image Credit: Imagn