NFL DFS: Week 17 Playoff Scenario Breakdown
After 16 weeks, the NFL regular season will come to a close this Sunday. With some teams vying for playoff position while others are eliminated, savvy DFS players will want to consider the playoff implications for each game this weekend.
In general, the situations that we should be concerned with are teams that could possibly rest their starters for the playoffs. Several teams have been eliminated from the playoffs for weeks now, but they haven’t stopped trying. Well, at least they’ve still given the same effort they’ve given all season (looking at you, Dolphins and Browns).
We have 16 games this weekend, and only five (STL/SF, WSH/DAL, PHI/NYG, DET/CHI, and NO/ATL) are meaningless for both teams. The easiest way to do this is just to take a quick game-by-game look at what is at stake for each team.
Games are listed in order of start time with the earliest first (all times listed are Eastern).
New York Jets (10-5) at Buffalo Bills (7-8) – 1:00 PM
What’s at stake: The Bills have already been eliminated from the playoffs, but they will look to play spoiler as they try to reach .500 or better for the second season in a row under new owner Terry Pegula. They’ll have to do it against a Jets team that is both a division rival and a playoff hopeful.
The Jets’ playoff scenario is rather simple. They clinch a playoff berth with a win. Should they lose to the Bills, they can also clinch with a Steelers loss but they won’t be able to count on that as both the Steelers and Jets kick off at 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots (12-3) at Miami Dolphins (5-10) – 1:00 PM
What’s at stake: The Patriots look to rebound from a disappointing loss to the division rival Jets this past weekend. With home-field advantage still at stake, the Patriots must play to win this game. They can achieve the #1 Seed with a win. Should the Patriots lose, they can also clinch home-field advantage with a Denver loss, but they won’t be able to count on that since the Broncos do not play until 4:25 PM.
The Dolphins have been eliminated, but that’s been the case for a few weeks now. They’ll still bring their motivation, as both coaching and positional jobs are on the line.
New Orleans Saints (6-9) at Atlanta Falcons (8-7) – 1:00 PM
What’s at stake: The field is already set in the NFC, and neither team in this game is part of it. This game is just a battle of division rivals, both of whom had high hopes and largely disappointed this season.
Baltimore Ravens (5-10) at Cincinnati Bengals (11-4) – 1:00 PM
What’s at stake: The Bengals have two scenarios in play here. They already have the AFC North locked up, but they can clinch a first round bye with:
1.) A win plus a Denver loss
2.) A Chiefs win plus a Denver loss
The Bengals don’t entirely control their own destiny here. Both scenarios involve a Denver loss, but the second needs help from the Chiefs. The Bengals will play to win this game and then watch at 4:25 PM when the Broncos and Chiefs play their games.
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6) at Cleveland Browns (3-12) – 1:00 PM
What’s at stake: The Steelers’ playoffs hopes are on life support after an unexpected loss to the Ravens last Sunday. The Steelers will need a win and some help to make the playoffs. The Steelers can make the playoffs with a win plus a Jets loss. The good news from a DFS perspective is that both the Steelers and Jets play at 1:00 PM, so the result of the Jets game won’t be known.
The Browns have an interesting conundrum. On one hand, they would love to play the role of spoiler and ruin the rival Steelers’ playoff hopes. On the other hand, the #1 pick in the 2016 draft is also in play. The Browns need a loss plus a Titans victory to secure the #1 pick. This isn’t something they intentionally try for, but I would keep it in the back of my mind as a DFS player.
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10) at Houston Texans (8-7) – 1:00 PM
What’s at stake: The Jaguars have already been eliminated from the playoffs, and will only play the role of spoiler here. The playoff implications in this game are on the other side as their opponent has several scenarios. The simplest scenario for Houston is to win this game and clinch the AFC South. Should Houston lose, they can still win the AFC South with three other scenarios. They are:
1.) Clinch AFC South with a Colts loss.
2.) Clinch AFC South via strength of victory. (Need one of the following: CIN win, NYJ win, NO win, DEN loss, MIA loss)
3.) Clinch AFC South via strength of schedule over IND (KC win + PIT loss)
All of that seems very confusing (we’ll cover it more in the Colts section) but the Texans can avoid all of that mess by simply beating Jacksonville.
Tennessee Titans (3-12) at Indianapolis Colts (7-8) – 1:00 PM
What’s at stake: According to ESPN Stats and Information, the Colts simply need 10 different games to break their way to make that playoffs. The odds of that happening are roughly 3,300-to-1. On the bright side, the first two of those 10 already went their way. Now they just need to win plus all of the following:
HOU loss + CIN loss + DEN win + NYJ loss + NO loss + KC loss + MIA win + PIT win
Sounds pretty simple! What about their opponent? I mentioned above the Titans are the front runner for the #1 pick based on strength of schedule. They need a loss to lock up the #1 pick. Again, that’s not something teams intentionally try for but it is a consideration.
Washington Redskins (8-7) at Dallas Cowboys (4-11) – 1:00 PM
What’s at stake: The Redskins have already clinched the NFC East as well as the #4 Seed. They will play against the #5 seed next weekend no matter what. The only question is whether they will do that with an 8-8 record or a 9-7 record. This is one situation I would monitor closely. Will the Redskins risk injury-prone players such as Jordan Reed or DeSean Jackson in a meaningless game?
For the Cowboys, the only thing at stake is draft position and pride. Without Tony Romo and several other contributors, the Cowboys have limped to the finish line in a lost season. It will be worth checking on whether veterans such as Dez Bryant and Darren McFadden will get a full workload.
Philadelphia Eagles (6-9) at New York Giants (6-9) – 1:00 PM
What’s at stake: This game doesn’t have playoff implications, but I will toss you a bonus nugget here. The NFL announced their 2016 International Series. One of the games is a Week 7 matchup between the Rams and the team who finishes in the same spot in the NFC East standings as the Rams finish in the NFC West. We already know the Rams will finish third in the NFC West. The loser of this game will drop to third in the NFC East and travel to London to face the Rams.
Detroit Lions (6-9) at Chicago Bears (6-9) – 1:00 PM
What’s at stake: As I previously mentioned, the field is already set in the NFC. The only thing left to be decided is seeding. Neither of these teams made the playoffs, so this is just a good old-fashioned battle for last place in the NFC North.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-9) at Carolina Panthers (14-1) – 4:25 PM
What’s at stake: As crazy as it sounds, even at 14-1 the Carolina Panthers still need a win if they would like to clinch home-field advantage. They can also clinch with an Arizona loss, but they won’t be able to count on that as the Panthers and Cardinals both play at 4:25 PM.
The Panthers’ opponent in this game is a Buccaneers team that has already been eliminated. The Buccaneers will still play for pride and personal accolades. One such accolade is the rushing title. Doug Martin trails Adrian Peterson by 64 yards for the NFL rushing title. Martin winning the rushing title is definitely a long shot but you never know, right?
Oakland Raiders (7-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-5) – 4:25 PM
What’s at stake: The Raiders have been eliminated so their only motivation is a .500 season. Their opponent still has plenty to play for in this game. The Chiefs have already clinched a playoff spot but it has not been determined whether that spot is the AFC West crown or a Wild card. The Chiefs only scenario to achieve the AFC West crown is a win plus a Denver loss. They will still play to win though as both the Chiefs and Broncos play at 4:25 PM.
San Diego Chargers (4-11) at Denver Broncos (11-4) – 4:25 PM
What’s at stake: At (4-11) the Chargers have been eliminated for several weeks now. Their opponent in this game has the most on the line of any team playing this weekend. The Broncos could potentially end up with home-field advantage, but they could also drop to the #5 seed and end up playing a road game next weekend.
The Broncos clinch home-field with a win plus a New England loss. Since New England plays at 1:00 PM, they’ll already know the result of this portion prior to kickoff. That won’t allow them to take their foot off the gas though.The Broncos can clinch a first round bye with a win, or a Bengals loss plus a Chiefs loss. In order to clinch the AFC West title, the Broncos also need a win or a Chiefs loss. As you can see, every scenario for the Broncos involves a win.
Seattle Seahawks (9-6) at Arizona Cardinals (13-2) – 4:25 PM
What’s at stake: This game is one of only two games where both teams have playoff implications. Let’s start with the Seahawks who can only slightly improve their seed. We already know that the Seahawks will be a wild card. The only question is whether they grab the #5 seed and play at Washington, or the #6 seed and play at either Minnesota or Green Bay. The Seahawks instagram account posted a nice flow chart here breaking it down. Basically, if Seattle wins, they have a shot at the #5 seed if Minnesota wins. If they lose, they become the #6 seed no matter what.
The Cardinals only have one playoff scenario, as they need a win plus a Panthers loss to clinch home-field advantage. They won’t know the outcome of the Panthers game though so they will still try to win. Should they lose, they’ll still be the #2 seed and have a first round bye next weekend.
St. Louis Rams (7-8) at San Francisco 49ers (4-11) – 4:25 PM
What’s at stake: This is one of three games this weekend where neither team has playoff hopes. The Rams will play for an 8-8 season while the 49ers look to pick up their fifth win to avoid “San Francisco 4 and 12ers” memes being posted on Facebook.
Minnesota Vikings (10-5) at Green Bay Packers (10-5) – 8:30 PM
What’s at stake: Finally, we come to the last game of the weekend. As always, the NFL used flex-scheduling to move the most meaningful game of the week to primetime. Both the Vikings and Packers have already clinched a playoff spot. The only question remaining is which team will become the NFC North Champion and which will become a wild card. The winner of this game clinches the NFC North and the loser clinches either the #5 or #6 seed (depending on the result of SEA/ARI).