NFL DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections: Week 2 Notes & Advice
The first week of the NFL season was relatively low-scoring for a typical 13-game NFL DFS slate. Some games had sketchy weather situations, while many offenses around the league simply looked rusty. Some of the most popular plays of the week paid off, of course. Look no further than Tyreek Hill, who popped off for over 200 receiving yards with a couple of touchdowns. Others – like Jamaal Williams – failed to capitalize despite significant ownership.
Game log watching is real, especially when it comes to NFL DFS. With such huge fields, you’re going to find tons of casuals populating your GPPs. Obviously, you can use this to your advantage. Lots of people are going to overreact to what we saw last week, which is obviously silly in the grand scheme of things. Something tells me Tee Higgins won’t put up a 0 every week, yet I bet he’ll see depressed ownership in Week 2 after that goose egg last Sunday.
An early run of our RotoGrinders DraftKings NFL ownership projections is live, and it’s never too early to take a gander. These projections are always subject to change depending on injury news and other factors, but knowing how the field is planning to approach the slate is a good way to get an early leg up on your competition.
Here are a few takeaways heading into Sunday’s DraftKings 12-game main slate for Week 2.
NFL DFS Week 2 DraftKings Ownership Projections
Calvin Ridley ($7,200) – 20.09% pOWN
Puka Nacua ($4,900) – 19.06% pOWN
Davante Adams ($7,600) – 17.17% pOWN
James Conner ($6,200) – 16.9% pOWN
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800) – 16.73% pOWN
Week 2 NFL DFS ownership projections for DraftKings are accurate at the time of publication and subject to change. Sign up for RG Premium to get updated ownership projections all the way to kickoff.
DraftKings Ownership Notes
Jags’ Offense is Popping
Calvin Ridley missed all of last season after violating the NFL’s gambling policy, but he returned in a big way in his Jaguars debut in Week 1. The ex-Bama standout caught 8 passes for 101 yards and a touchdown in Jacksonville’s road victory in Indianapolis. Ridley’s 11 targets were 4 more than the next-most-targeted pass-catcher, and he may well have already supplanted Christian Kirk as the top target for Trevor Lawrence. Ridley’s current pOWN of around 20% is the highest player on the DK slate, as of Thursday. The Jaguars will play their home opener on Sunday afternoon against the Chiefs in a rematch of last year’s AFC Divisional Round.
Ridley isn’t the only Jag pulling ownership, however, as Lawrence (10.51%) is also the most popular QB play on the slate, per our current projections. Even Kirk – who whimpered to just 1 catch for 9 yards in the opener – is projected to be in about 9% of lineups on Sunday. Jacksonville is an underdog in this one, yet they still have a fairly high 24-point implied team total. This game’s over/under of 51.5 points is the highest of the week, as well.
The $7,000-$8,000 range is rich with quality options at wide receiver this week, though most of them are projecting for double-digit ownership. I wouldn’t say Ridley is the safest chalk play considering we’ve only seen one game’s worth of his work with the Jaguars, but we’re also limited in terms of direct pivots. Keenan Allen for $100 less and about half the projected ownership of Ridley looks like the best bet if you’re looking to dodge the Ridley chalk.
The Chiefs’ defense has been more vulnerable to the pass over the past couple of seasons. We saw the Lions enjoy some success through the air in the opener. It’s worth noting there is potential for some rain in this game, however, so keep an eye on Roth’s weather report as we get closer to Sunday.
Puka Nacua Chalk SZN
Puka Nacua generated some headlines in training camp, but few saw his Week 1 explosion coming. The Rams’ rookie wideout grabbed 10 of his 15 (!!!) targets for 119 yards in LA’s opening-week win in Seattle. Tutu Atwell attracted 8 targets, while no other pass-catcher drew more than 3 looks from Matthew Stafford. With Cooper Kupp on IR, it’s logical to assume Nacua will continue to play a significant role in this offense for the next few weeks.
The Rams will welcome the 49ers to SoFi on Sunday, so it’s not an easy spot by any means. This defense ranked first in the league in DVOA last season, and they absolutely suffocated the Steelers’ potentially-promising offense on the road last week.
Still, Nacua’s $4,900 salary is just far too cheap for a guy who lured 15 targets in Week 1. After such a monster showing last week, Puka’s current RG pOWN of around 19% could also be undershooting it a bit. As of now, he’s pretty easily the best point-per-dollar value at WR in our projections.
Adams, Conner Face Injury Question Marks
Davante Adams (17.17%) and James Conner (16.9%) are projected to be among the most popular flex plays of the week on DraftKings, though both are facing injury questions. Adams missed the Raiders’ practice on Wednesday with a sore foot, while Conner was a limited participant for Arizona due to a sore calf. It’s too early to suggest either will actually miss Sunday’s games, but the practice statuses are still worth noting.
Both players are also coming off of relatively underwhelming showings in Week 1. Adams hauled in 6 passes for 66 yards and didn’t find the end zone. The Broncos made a point of shutting Adams down, which led to a massive outing for Jakobi Meyers. Meyers is currently in concussion protocol, though, so there’s a chance he sits this week when the team heads to Buffalo. Even with Jimmy Garoppolo now in the mix, though, I’m not at all concerned about Adams’ status as a fantasy WR1 on a weekly basis.
Conner played 52 of the Cardinals’ 62 offensive snaps last week in Washington, so he should be primed for a big role again this season, even in what should be one of the league’s worst offenses. He carried the ball 14 times for 62 yards and impressive caught all 5 of his targets. He only amassed 8 receiving yards, but targets are targets, and they’re particularly useful on DK given the PPR format.
The Cardinals will host the Giants on Sunday. New York looked dreadful in all facets last week against Dallas, but let’s not forget this was a top-5 defense a season ago. Dalvin Cook and Jahmyr Gibbs are a couple of potential pivots in the same price range as Conner, though neither projects quite as well from a median standpoint. AJ Dillon ($5,900) could become a chalky play and sap some of Conner’s ownership if Aaron Jones is a no-go for the Packers, however.
Seahawks-Lions Shootout?
You may remember the last time the Seahawks faced the Lions in Detroit, probably because it was less than a year ago. Seattle went into Detroit and came away with a 48-45 win in one of the wildest games we’ve seen in quite some time. Geno Smith and Matthew Stafford both topped 300 yards passing. Both teams had a running back go over 100 yards, while 4 players caught at least 81 yards’ worth of passes.
This week’s rematch only has a 47-point over/under, which is a bit surprising. Kenneth Walker and David Montgomery are both projected to pull double-digit ownership, but Amon-Ra St. Brown (16.73%) leads all players in that regard. Interestingly enough, he missed last year’s extravaganza, which paved the way for big outings from both TJ Hockenson and Josh Reynolds.
St. Brown is going to be a target monster again this season, and we saw him catch 6 of his 8 throws last week with a TD in Kansas City. We saw Seattle’s defense get gouged by Matthew Stafford and a slew of no-name receivers last week, so it stands to reason that they’ll struggle against what should be a more prolific Lions passing attack in this one.