NFL DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections: Week 4 Notes & Advice
How ‘bout those Lions? We saw Detroit go into Lambeau Field and stomp the Packers on Thursday night in an impressive effort to kick off Week 4. The action will continue on Sunday with a 12-game main slate on DraftKings for the second consecutive week.
There isn’t one single game standing out above the rest like we had last week with the Chargers-Vikings clash, but we do have 5 games with over/unders of at least 45 points. Some of the plays currently projected to be popular aren’t necessarily the usual suspects, which makes things interesting. The builds don’t build themselves, so we’ve got some decision points.
Our RotoGrinders premium ownership projections are live and ready for your perusal. Here’s how pOWN is shaking out on DK as of Friday afternoon.
NFL DFS Week 4 DraftKings Ownership Projections
Kyren Williams ($6,000) – 21.72% pOWN
Pat Freiermuth ($3,400) – 18.06% pOWN
Adam Thielen ($4,500) – 16.93% pOWN
Tony Pollard ($7,800) – 16.85% pOWN
Miles Sanders ($5,800) – 16.41% pOWN
Week 4 NFL DFS ownership projections for DraftKings are accurate at the time of publication and subject to change. Sign up for RG Premium to get updated ownership projections all the way to kickoff.
DraftKings Ownership Notes
Kyren Williams SZN
It seems as though we’ve had a chalky value running back in each of the season’s first 3 weeks. Jamaal Williams, Joshua Kelley, and Jerome Ford have all had their time in the limelight, and, ironically, they were all facing the Titans when they were popping as values. Ford was the only one that came particularly close to living up to the hype, however. With guys like Austin Ekeler and Alvin Kamara due back this week, though, we’re hurting for cheapies at the RB position.
As a result, projected ownership is congregating around the Rams’ Kyren Williams, who checks in at $6,000 for a road date against the Colts in Indianapolis. Cam Akers is long gone, and Williams seems to be the only running back Sean McVay trusts these days. Despite a quiet game against the Bengals on Monday night, Williams still managed to play 100% of the Rams’ offensive snaps. Hard to beat that.
The matchup isn’t ideal, as Indy ranks a respectable 13th in DVOA vs. the run so far this season. The game will take place in a dome, though, which is generally good for offensive production. Williams has also attracted 19 targets from Matthew Stafford already. Miles Sanders (20) is the only running back in the league with more. He’s getting the opportunities, it’s just a matter of cashing them in.
Obviously, we shouldn’t overreact to one bad game. Williams is still just 2 weeks removed from scoring a couple of touchdowns in a more difficult on-paper matchup against the vaunted 49ers defense. Given the salary and his projected workload, Williams looks like reasonable chalk.
The Panthers, Huh?
2 of the 5 most popular projected plays on DraftKings play for the Panthers, which…yikes? This offense has looked awful with rookie Bryce Young under center, and Young is likely to return on Sunday after missing last week’s game with an ankle injury. The matchup at home against the Vikings’ pathetic defense is attractive, but I certainly wouldn’t say this is comfortable chalk.
As mentioned, Miles Sanders has been heavily involved in the passing game, which is useful on a PPR site like DraftKings. The ground game is a question mark, though, as he’s averaging barely over 3 yards per carry thus far. This is about as good of a bounce-back spot as he can ask for, as Minnesota ranks dead-last in the league in DVOA vs. the run through 3 games.
Sanders has played about two-thirds of the Panthers’ snaps to this point, with Chuba Hubbard serving as the clear backup. He’s totaled at least 5 targets in each game, however, which is the primary source of appeal here. It’s worth noting that Sanders is officially questionable for this one with a groin injury, but he’s a reasonable value if he’s good to go.
Meanwhile, we’ve also got Adam Thielen projected for nearly 17% ownership. He had a monster game in Seattle last week…with Andy Dalton in there. He had more targets in that game (14) than he did in his first 2 games combined (11) with Young throwing him the football. His Week 2 outing was boosted by a late TD, as well.
Thielen gets the #revenge narrative against the Vikings. Minnesota has fared better against the pass early in the year – ranking 11th in DVOA – but they did get gouged by Justin Herbert and friends last week. The issue here, of course, is that the Panthers are not the Chargers.
At $4,500, though, there isn’t a ton of opportunity cost with Thielen. He should be the primary target for the rookie QB, and he doesn’t have to completely go off in order to pay off the salary. However, you will need a big outing from Thielen in order to pay off the significant ownership he’s likely to attract.
If there’s anyone I don’t mind going under the field on in GPPs, it’ll be this Panthers chalk.
Muuuuuuuuth!
The Steelers look like a trendy offense this week when they head down to H-Town to take on the Texans. They’ll be in the dome against what was expected to be one of the worst defenses in the sport. Houston ranks a solid 8th in total DVOA through 3 games, but it’ll take more than a 3-game sample for me to be buying this team as some defensive stalwart.
We finally saw Kenny Pickett get something going through the air last weekend in Vegas, and you can stack this team on the cheap. Pickett ($5,100) and George Pickens ($5,400) are easy sells, while Pat Freiermuth ($3,400) is popping as the second-most-popular player at any position on DraftKings. A quick glance at tight end tells you why. We don’t have Travis Kelce or Sam LaPorta on this slate, while Mark Andrews (vs. CLE) is in a fairly difficult spot. TJ Hockenson ($6,500) looks like the chalky spend at the position, while Freiermuth will be popular on the lower end of the salary spectrum.
Freiermuth caught a mere 2 passes for 5 yards combined through the first 2 weeks, but he bounced back with 3 receptions (4 targets) for 41 yards and a score a week ago against the Raiders. This guy racked up 98 targets last season, good for the fifth-most among tight ends. So far this season, he ranks 34th in the same category. Something tells me he’ll be rising those rankings as the season progresses, and he won’t be just $3,400 every week.
Back to the Pollard Well
A whole lot of nothing went right for the Cowboys in the desert last week, though Tony Pollard was one of the few bright spots. He totaled more than 5 yards per carry en route to his first 100-yard rushing effort of the young season in Dallas’ upset loss in Arizona.
Pollard has been a workhorse in the first year of the post-Zeke era in Dallas. Only David Montgomery (69) has more carries than Pollard’s 60 so far, and last week he was out there for a season-high 86% of the snaps. Rico Dowdle is getting occasional work, but Pollard also has 12 targets from Dak Prescott.
The on-paper matchup at home against the Patriots isn’t ideal, especially considering Bill Belichick’s long track record of taking away his opponent’s primary weapons. Given the way the Cowboys have been feeding Pollard to this point, it’s safe to assume stopping him will be the top priority of this defense.
On the flip side, who cares? Pollard is one of the few legit bellcow backs in the league these days, and he’s arguably still underpriced at only $7,800.