NFL DFS Stack Spotlight: Week 7
Stacking is an essential part of NFL DFS. Each week it is important that we identify the best available correlations and apply them carefully to our DFS lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. The RotoGrinders LineupHQ Optimizer has a stacking feature we can use to locate high quality options each week, and we’ll use it now to discuss three of the top options from our projections. We can then compare that to the projected ownership to help make our decisions for daily fantasy football.
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Week 7 NFL DFS Stacks Report
Green Bay Packers
Top Players to Stack: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Davante Adams
Projected Fantasy Points: 57.99 FanDuel/Yahoo, 67.56 DraftKings
Opponent: Houston Texans
Top Bring Backs: Will Fuller
Expected Ownership: mid-to-high
First and foremost, I put “mid-to-high” as the expected ownership because I am not quite sure all three of these guys in a stack together is going to be popular. For one, it is extremely expensive to play all three of them in one lineup, as they are amongst the most expensive players at their respective positions. And secondly, stacking a running back with that player’s quarterback isn’t nearly as popular as the QB/WR tandem (for obvious reasons).
That being said, I do think these guys as individual pieces will be pretty popular. When using the Stack Finder with QB + 2 skill position players on that team, this trio comes in with the fifth highest cumulative ownership on both FD and DK.
The one thing that immediately stood out to me on the Stack Finder though was how far ahead this trio is in projected points from the rest of the field. At the time I ran the Stack Finder (Friday morning), they projected about three points higher than the next group on FD and well over five points on DK.
And while the counterpoint to that would be a very reasonable, “Yeah but, these dudes are expensive!”, they also rank extremely high in the FPTS/$ category. How high? While they are ‘just’ the 11th best on FD, the looser pricing there also makes it easier to fill out a good roster around them. On DK though, they come out as the fifth best point-per-dollar trio on the entire slate.
Seattle Seahawks
Top Players to Stack: Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf
Projected Fantasy Points: 52.91 FanDuel/Yahoo, 61.66 DraftKings
Opponent: Arizona Cardinals
Top Bring Backs: DeAndre Hopkins, Kenyan Drake or Chase Edmonds
Expected Ownership: high
While this Seattle trio comes in slightly behind the aforementioned Packers trio in cumulative expected ownership, I do expect this stack as a whole to be more popular since it is Russ and two receivers.
And can you really blame anyone for wanting to stack this group? With the Seahawks letting Russ throw more (fifth highest Pass% in the league this season according to GridIronIQ), he and at least one of these two receivers has hit every week. Only two straight down games from Lockett has stopped it from being a can’t-miss three-man stack in every game this season.
On FD, this stack is far more affordable than the Packers trio. Whereas Rodgers, Jones, and Adams combine for $25,500 in salary, this Seahawks group costs you just $23,400. So not only does this lineup technically correlate better, but you are also getting an extra $2,100 to upgrade another position or two. On DK though, it is the second most expensive three-man stack on the slate behind the Packers trio.
One last thing to note here is a bit of housekeeping. Although this game got pushed back to Sunday Night Football, it is still going to be a part of the main slate. So who knows, maybe the fact that we have a Sunday Night Football game as part of the main slate (like the old days) means we get a little ownership discount on these guys?? One can hope…
Arizona Cardinals
Top Players to Stack: Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins
Projected Fantasy Points: 40.57 FanDuel/Yahoo, 47.01 DraftKings
Opponent: Seattle Seahawks
Top Bring Backs: Chris Carson, Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf
Expected Ownership: high
When using our Stack Finder (QB + just 1 WR/TE), no duo comes in with a higher total of projected fantasy points than Murray and Hopkins. And it is hard not to blatantly see why that is the case when looking at the matchup.
Guess how many teams have allowed more fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than the Seahawks? None! Guess how many teams have allowed more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks? One!
In addition to the great matchup, these two guys are also fantasy goldmines. Hopkins has the second highest market share of targets on his team in the entire league at 31.7%. As for Kyler, he has the 13th most rushing yards in the entire league. And yes, that includes running backs (he is still inside the Top 20 when you look at just rushing yards per game). So while he may not be quite as lethal with his arm as some other QB’s in the league, he certainly makes up for it with his legs.
Rightfully so, the expected ownership is going to be an issue here though. This duo has the highest cumulative ownership on FD in our projections and the second highest on DK. So before blindly just plugging these two guys into your lineup, you will need to give some consideration to just how chalky they might end up being.
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Image Credit: Imagn