NFL DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections: Week 8 Notes & Advice
Following a bye-heavy Week 7, we’re back to a massive 13-game main slate in Week 8. As of this writing on Friday afternoon, we don’t have any clear-cut smash value plays at the skill positions on DraftKings, which should make things interesting. As a result, lots of the ownership on DK seems to be congregating in the midrange at running back and wide receiver, in particular.
Our RotoGrinders premium DraftKings ownership projections are ready to roll ahead of Sunday’s slate. LineupHQ. Who are some of the most popular plays on DK heading into the eighth week of the 2023 campaign?
NFL DFS Week 8 DraftKings Ownership Projections
Zay Flowers ($5,600) – 23.29% pOWN%
Jordan Addison ($5,700) – 22.73% pOWN%
Joe Mixon ($5,800) – 21.13% pOWN%
Josh Downs ($4,800) – 20.41% pOWN%
Breece Hall ($5,900) – 18.75% pOWN%
Week 8 NFL DFS ownership projections for DraftKings are accurate at the time of publication and subject to change. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium to get updated ownership projections all the way to kickoff.
DraftKings Ownership Notes
All Aboard the Rookie WR Bandwagon
As of now, we’ve got 3 rookie wideouts projecting to be among the 5 most popular plays on DraftKings this week. The Ravens’ Zay Flowers leads the way, though Jordan Addison and Josh Downs aren’t far behind. All 3 have quickly asserted themselves as core pieces in their respective offenses, and they’re all in very attractive matchups, to boot.
Flowers leads his new team in target share (26.2%), which is impressive in an offense that features more established players in Mark Andrews and Odell Beckham. He’s quickly developed a rapport with Lamar Jackson, and it helps that the Ravens have taken a more pass-heavy approach this season. It’s worth noting that Flowers has only scored one touchdown this season with a grand total of zero 100-yard games, but he does have at least 6 targets in each of the last 3 games.
The matchup is also terrific, as the Ravens will be going into the dome to face a Cardinals defense that enters the week a dismal 31st in the league in DVOA vs. the pass. Mix in the cheap salary and I think you’ve got a recipe for Good Chalk here.
You’ll get Addison for just $100 more when the Vikings head to Lambeau for a date with the rival Packers. Addison is coming off the best game of his young career, in which he hauled in 7 of his 10 targets for 123 yards and a couple of TDs. The USC product has attracted at least 8 targets in 3 of the last 5 games, and he’s the main man in this offense with Justin Jefferson on IR. While I think Flowers is the clear-cut better play in the same range, I see the merit to Addison’s pOWN.
Finally, Josh Downs has seen his target share improve quite a bit with Gardner Minshew under center. Downs scored for the second time this season last week while topping 100 yards through the air in that surprising shootout against the Browns. DK didn’t move his salary much at all ($4,800) despite the fact that he’s been heavily involved of late.
In games in which Minshew has played the majority of the snaps, Downs is averaging a healthy 7.4 targets. Compare that to the 5 looks he averaged with Anthony Richardson logging most of the work. The Colts will stay in their dome to take on a Saints defense that comes into this one 18th in pDVOA on the year.
Sub-$6,000 RB SZN
As mentioned, it looks like we won’t have any obvious punts at running back this week. We should see some ownership flock to the pricier Christian McCaffrey, Tony Pollard, and Alvin Kamara in appealing spots of their own, but those opting for the balanced build may prefer the savings provided by Joe Mixon ($5,800) and Breece Hall ($5,900).
Mixon isn’t a sexy play these days. He’s in the midst of the least efficient campaign of his career, as he’s averaging a middling 3.8 yards per carry. He’s also scored just one total touchdown through the Bengals’ first 6 games. To make matters worse, this team will head west for a date with that vaunted 49ers defense on Sunday afternoon.
Given those factors, I wouldn’t be all that surprised to see Mixon’s pOWN dip as we get closer and closer to lock on Sunday. The one factor that keeps me coming back to Mixon is the workload. He’s logged at least 70% of the Bengals’ offensive snaps since Week 1. Backup Chase Brown has 2 carries all year. There aren’t many RBs in the league still getting legit bell-cow work, especially in Mixon’s price range. I get the appeal from that standpoint, but I’m not dying to play Mixon at high ownership.
Hall feels a bit more tolerable for $100 more. He finally got over the 50% of the snaps threshold in Week 5 before seeing a season-high 66% of the snaps in Week 6. Dalvin Cook is essentially a non-factor in the Jets’ plans at this point, with Michael Carter slowly working his way into the No. 2 role.
Hall seems to be back near full strength after last year’s ACL tear. He’s among the league leaders in yards per carry (6.5!), and he’s getting work in the passing game. Hall has at least 3 targets in 3 straight games, including 5 last time out.
The Jets will play their intra-stadium rivals on Sunday afternoon. The Giants (30th in rDVOA) haven’t been able to slow down opposing ground games all year, and Hall might be a $7,000 player before too long. Get in while you still can, as long as he’s as affordable as he is this week.
Jonathan Taylor Time?
Jonathan Taylor returned from his IR stint in Week 5, and he’s been slowly working his way back ever since. He played just 15% of the snaps in Week 5 before getting up to 42% and 50% in the last 2 games, respectively. Zack Moss has played well enough to retain some sort of role, but it sure looks like JT is about to seize back control of Indy’s rushing attack.
At $6,200, we’re still getting a considerable discount on the 2021 rushing champ. His 18 carries a week ago were a season-high, and he found paydirt for the first time. He’s also attracted 10 targets over the past 2 games combined, which adds to his appeal given the PPR format DraftKings employs.
Frankly, I don’t see much reason not to hop on the JT bandwagon after last week’s showing. His current pOWN in the 16% range is hardly overwhelming, either. The Saints have been stingier against the run (8th in rDVOA), but this is simply a matter of one of the game’s premier running backs being way, way too cheap.
As is the case with Hall, we could see a significant salary hike for Taylor as early as next week. Now’s the time.