NFL DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections: Week 9 Notes & Advice
Sunday’s 10-game main slate has a little bit of everything on DraftKings. If you’re looking to pay up at quarterback, look no further than Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson in appealing matchups. There also happen to be several viable cheaper options out there that’ll help you get access to some of the studs at running back, wide receiver, and tight end.
Taking an early peek at projected ownership is a great way for you to learn how the field will be building lineups on Sunday. As always, our DK NFL ownership projections are now live ahead of this weekend’s main slate.
Who will be the most popular plays on DraftKings in Week 9?
NFL DFS Week 9 DraftKings Ownership Projections
Chuba Hubbard ($5,000) – 25.9% pOWN%
A.J. Brown ($8,600) – 22.81% pOWN%
Bijan Robinson ($6,100) – 22.69% pOWN%
Alvin Kamara ($8,100) – 22.46% pOWN%
Demario Douglas ($4,000) – 20.7% pOWN%
Week 9 NFL DFS ownership projections for DraftKings are accurate at the time of publication and subject to change. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium to get updated ownership projections all the way to kickoff.
DraftKings Ownership Notes
Demario Douglas Chalk Week
The Patriots’ offense has been heavily maligned all season, though they have shown some signs of coming around lately. Despite a 1-2 record during this stretch, the Pats have put at least 17 points on the board in each of the last 3 games. That may not sound like a lot, but let’s not forget they mustered just 3 total points over the course of a 2-game run several weeks ago.
This team has been thin on playmaking receivers for what feels like decades, but they’ll be even more shorthanded this week when they host the Commanders. Kendrick Bourne – one of the very few offensive bright spots – just went on IR after tearing his ACL last weekend. Bourne has been playing upwards of 90% of the snaps in recent weeks, so his absence will open up a huge hole in this passing attack.
DeVante Parker and JuJu Smith-Schuster are the bigger names, but Demario Douglas is the one expected to pull ownership in Week 9. The rookie has started to play his way into a bigger role. On the season, Douglas has a modest 19 catches on 30 targets for 222 yards. However, 9 of those receptions and 13 of those targets have come in just the past 2 games. He’s also set season-highs in snap counts (62%, 77%) in the last couple of games.
Washington’s defense has been fairly weak (18th in DVOA) against the pass, and they’re not going to improve in that regard from here on out. The Commanders traded their two best pass-rushers before this week’s deadline, so there’s a chance Mac Jones will actually enjoy some success in this one.
Most importantly, Douglas is also just $4,000 on DraftKings. Viable punt receivers with legitimate roles don’t come around very often, and the alternatives – Elijah Moore, Van Jefferson, Wan’Dale Robinson, Noah Brown, etc. – aren’t really more appealing. That said, it’s not like Davis is the safest chalk in the world. I don’t mind pivoting to one of the other options at what could be a fraction of Davis’ ownership in some tournament builds.
Back to Chuba
We got a report shortly before lock last week that the Panthers planned to feature Chuba Hubbard a lot more on early downs. He’s essentially already replaced Miles Sanders as the preferred back in the Carolina backfield, though he didn’t attract much attention last week. Hubbard still came in with single-digit GPP ownership on DK, even at a reasonable $4,800 DK salary.
This week, we’ll have to pay just $200 more to roster Hubbard in the Panthers’ matchup at home against the Colts. He’s projecting to be the most popular player at any position on DraftKings this time around, however, even after a stinker last week against Houston. He did get 15 carries but struggled his way to just 28 rushing yards for an average of just 1.9 yards per tote.
Chuba has averaged exactly 4 yards per carry over the course of his career, so we know he has more in the tank than he showed against the Texans. The matchup also suits him well, as Indy ranks just 21st in the league in DVOA vs. the run. Hubbard’s involvement in the passing game has been fleeting, but the ownership is a reflection of the cheap salary. He saw a season-high 67% of the snaps last week, while Sanders was only on the field 18% of the time.
Bijan Back?
Given the way the Falcons have frustratingly used – or not used – Kyle Pitts over the past few years, perhaps we should’ve seen this Bijan Robinson fiasco coming. For some reason, Arthur Smith seems to think that doing anything other than giving your most explosive, dynamic players the football is a smart way to play offense.
Spoiler alert: it is not.
Robinson infamously played just 17% of the snaps a couple of weeks ago as he was allegedly battling an illness the team failed to disclose before the game. Last week, the former No. 7 overall pick bounced back to play 74% of the snaps in a road loss to the Titans. Bijan looked like his usual, efficient self in that one, averaging 5.6 yards per carry along with a touchdown. Unfortunately, he got just 11 carries, and failed to haul in any of his 5 targets, either.
This week, Robinson and the Falcons find themselves in a better matchup in the dome at home against the Vikings. Minnesota has been surprisingly effective in terms of stopping the run – ranking 11th in rDVOA – but they’re just 25th in tDVOA.
This $6,100 salary is the second-cheapest price point we’ve seen on Robinson all year. There’s no telling whether the Falcons will actually do the right thing and give him a heavy workload, but I’m willing to roll the dice on a guy who’s been priced up over $7,000 for most of the season.
Atlanta will also be without Drake London on Sunday, so it makes even more sense for Atlanta to make Robinson a focal point once again.
All Aboard the Kamara Bandwagon
Coming into the year, it was fair to wonder whether the best days of Alvin Kamara as a player were in the rearview mirror. He started the season with a 3-game suspension, and he was coming off a middling 2022 campaign in which he scored just 4 total touchdowns.
However, based on his workload since his return, Kamara is still as reliable as ever. Frankly, we can chalk his resurgence up to the Saints’ decision to sign Derek “Captain Checkdown” Carr during the offseason. After averaging north of 5 targets per game last season, Kamara is attracting a gaudy average of 8.8 throws per game so far in 2023.
Through 5 games, Kamara has at least 8 targets in 3 of them. That includes a pair of 14-target games, one of which came 2 weeks ago against Jacksonville. The Saints have the rather annoying habit of letting Taysom Hill vulture touchdowns in the red zone, but Kamara does have at least 17 rushes in 4 straight.
There are just lots of ways for Kamara to get there, and the PPR format on DraftKings makes him all the more valuable over there. This week’s matchup is another tasty one, as the Bears will come to town. Chicago’s defense is the third-worst in football this season per tDVOA, and this game will take place in friendly indoor conditions at the Superdome.
Kamara’s salary is on the rise ($8,100), but the current projected ownership suggests even a price hike won’t cool the enthusiasm for him on DK this week.