NFL Futures Update: MVP Odds and Best Bets Heading Into Week 4
Somehow, someway, three whole weeks have gone by in the 2021 NFL season. Less surprisingly, quarterbacks still dominate the league. Just like last week, QBs comprise the top 11 players on the MVP odds boards of most sportsbooks (reigning two-time rushing champ Derrick Henry remains 12th).
We analyze the MVP odds weekly, until the end of the regular season, keeping an eye on the movement and determining the best values. We’ll show you BetMGM’s updated top ten list, then reveal our best bets and favorite longshots to ultimately bring home the trophy.
NFL futures betting continues to rise in popularity, kind of like playing the long game in the stock market as opposed to short-selling (betting individual games). Making futures bets allows you to hitch your wagons to a player or team you believe in, and cash in on your investment down the line if they accomplish what you thought they would.
Let’s dive into our initial market update of the MVP race, and make some early picks!
All odds are from BetMGM, and all stats are from NFL.com and Pro Football Reference.
2021 NFL MVP Odds — Week 4
Kyler Murray +700 (rank/odds last week: No. 1/+550)
Patrick Mahomes +800 (last week: No. 2/+600)
Tom Brady +800 (No. 3/+700)
Matthew Stafford +800 (No. 4/+1100)
Josh Allen +900 (No. 6/+1400)
Aaron Rodgers +1000 (No. 5/+1300)
Justin Herbert +1100 (outside top 10/+2500)
Dak Prescott +1400 (No. 7/+1600)
Russell Wilson +2000 (No. 8/+1600)
Lamar Jackson +2200 (No. 10/+1800)
Favorites
The odds board remained largely unchanged since last week, with the early favorites staying the course at least for now. Third-year King of the RPO Kyler Murray remains at No. 1 (although his payout has interestingly gone up from +550 to +700), while Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady hold on to their respective spots in the top three despite each of them losing two of their first three games. Like Murray, Matthew Stafford has been spectacular, and has his squad at 3-0. But the Rams were expected to be very good—not many (besides me, humble brag) even had the Cardinals in the playoffs this season.
Rounding out the top five, Josh Allen leap-frogged incumbent MVP Aaron Rodgers. That’s not a knock on Rodgers, who had another big win in primetime, leading the Pack to a game-winning drive in just 37 seconds flat. It’s more a testament to Allen’s dominance over the Washington Football Team last weekend. The 2020 MVP runner-up completed 32-of-43 passes for 358 yards and four touchdowns, and he ran a fifth one in himself. Allen at +900 is my favorite pick in the top five—he’s cooking with gas now, and might not look back the rest of the way. He has figured out how to be a dominant passer in the NFL, and he has the right coaching staff, offensive weapons, and defensive unit around him to be a top contender the rest of the way.
If you pass on Allen now, you might regret it later if the gun-slinger trounces Houston this week, and then goes on to win a Week 5 duel against 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City. After Buffalo’s Week 6 tilt against Derrick Henry and the Titans in Nashville, it’s BYE week time and then smooth sailing. Check out the Bills’ schedule from Week 8 through Week 18: vs. Miami, at Jacksonville, at NY Jets, vs. Indy, at New Orleans, vs. New England, at Tampa Bay, vs. Carolina, at New England, vs. Atlanta, vs. NY Jets. Barring injury, I only have Buffalo losing three more games at most the rest of the way. If Allen leads the Bills to a 13-4 record, and has 2020-like stats, this award could be his for the taking.
Watch out for Herbert & Prescott
Rodgers got bounced from No. 5 to No. 6, despite his heroics in his home state last weekend. He’s still a great bet to go back-to-back, and I’m sure he’d love—at least on the inside—to win MVP while not even acting like he cares much about football, never mind his franchise. He has as much passion for football at the professional level as he has in his look, which seems to be bordering somewhere between homeless chic and hipster surfer.
The biggest riser? Justin Herbert, who joins Stafford as the other QB to put Los Angeles football back on the map. Herbs has been fire the last couple weeks, and he’s building a unique rapport with breakout receiver Mike Williams. It also helps that running back/pass-catcher extraordinaire Austin Ekeler is healthy—he’s a tremendous safety valve for a young QB, not to mention a very underrated pass-blocker despite his small stature. Herbert would be worth a small wager if you believe in him as much as I do—his strength of schedule is weak, and his confidence is through the roof.
Another guy I like in the bottom-half of the top ten is Dak Prescott. The Cowboys have looked really good early on, and Prescott has been one of the better stories of the young season. He’s recovered from two ankle surgeries and played through a strained shoulder, and he looks better than ever. Even with Amari Cooper dinged up, this Dallas offense has looked explosive under Prescott. He’s got a plethora of playmakers at the skill position, most notably stud second-year wideout CeeDee Lamb and the running back tandem of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. The Cowboys also have a much-improved defense, with linebacker Micah Parsons and cornerback Trevon Diggs leading a very talented young core. Consider getting in while Dak’s outside the top five.
The biggest snub in the top ten? Derek Carr! The man remains undefeated in 2021, but he’s getting as much respect as Rodney Dangerfield in the ‘80s. He’s at +2200, just outside the top 10, after briefly holding down No. 10 at +2000 last week. Carr finished in the top five a few years back, so it’s not inconceivable for him to rise up in the rankings between now and the end of the season. His young receiving core of Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards, and Hunter Renfroe has taken a major step forward, and tight end Darren Waller remains the second-best playmaker in the NFL at the position. Betting Carr is kind of like getting a BLT over a Steak and Cheese, but I wouldn’t blame you if you bought a small investment share in the veteran at +2200.
Longshots
Last week, I featured veteran QB and the newest Broncos signal-called Teddy Bridgewater as my favorite longshot. Well, Teddy B has still yet to throw an interception, he has a QB rating of 116.4, and most importantly, he has Denver at 3-0. Suffice to say, Bridgewater at +6600 still sits atop my dark-horse MVP board (admittedly, it’s not a long list).
Derrick Henry (+5000) might deserve some recognition on the sleepers list for 2021 MVP. Although he’s an infinitely better bet to win Offensive Player of the Year, Henry could conceivably garner some attention at MVP across the first 17-game season in NFL history—especially if Mahomes and the Chiefs continue to have a down year by their standards and AJ Brown and Julio Jones continue to deal with injuries.
Sometimes we see players get achievement awards for dominating in the shadows for a lengthy amount of time, just like actors win Academy Awards for Best Actor after getting passed over for their best work (here’s looking at you, Leo DiCaprio). King Henry has ruled the running game for three years now, leading the NFL in rushes, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, rushing yards per game, and total yards from scrimmage. He’s atop all those stats again this year, with 353 rushing yards, 458 all-purpose yards, and three touchdowns. With all that said, it’s more prudent to back King Henry +800 to win Offensive Player of the Year.
Image Credit: Imagn