NFL Grind Down - TNF Edition: Week 4
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
| Baltimore Ravens | Pittsburgh Steelers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Thursday – 8:25 p.m. | Heinz Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 44 | 23.25 | 2.5 | 44 | 20.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.3 | 16 | 9 | 27 | Offense | 25.3 | 11 | 3 | 21 | |
| Opp. Defense | 17.3 | 6 | 20 | 9 | Opp. Defense | 28.0 | 26 | 27 | 7 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 25 | 4 | 17 | 30 | Baltimore Ravens | 27 | 5 | 31 | 1 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Smith | 40 | 25 | 2 | 349 | Archer | |||||
| Aiken | 11 | 6 | 0 | 88 | Brown | 35 | 29 | 2 | 436 | |
| Perriman | Wheaton | 14 | 7 | 0 | 138 | |||||
| Gillmore | 13 | 10 | 2 | 151 | Miller | 16 | 12 | 1 | 116 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Crockett Gillmore (BAL, Calf, Out), Breshad Perriman (BAL, Knee, Out), Ben Roethlisberger (PIT, Knee, Out)
BAL Matchup Rating: 5.5
PIT Matchup Rating: 6.5
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: Joe Flacco (FD $8,000, DK $6,000) and the Ravens get one of the most favorable matchups a passing game can get this weekend as they take on the Steelers, who have allowed the sixth-most points to opposing quarterbacks so far this year. (And one of those quarterbacks was Colin Kaepernick.) Yes, they shut down Nick Foles last week, but that was as much a byproduct of Foles and his receivers’ ineptitude than any reflection of an improvement for a pass defense that was 30th in the NFL last year according to Football Outsiders. Flacco threw for four touchdowns and only one interception against the Steelers a year ago, so if he hits 300 yards and continues on that average of two scores and a pick per game, he will make his daily fantasy owners very happy. He’s in play in all formats in what should be an up-tempo game with a decent amount of scoring.
Running Game: So far this season, the Ravens have run 28 plays in the red zone. Justin Forsett (FD $6,700, DK $6,000) touched the ball on only five of those, and saw only one target. When the Ravens get close to the end zone, they tend to throw, and specifically throw at a receiver we’ll get to in the next section. Forsett is always at risk of losing goal-line touches to Lorenzo Taliaferro (FD $5,200, DK $3,000), who doesn’t get enough volume to justify selection on his own, but is a thorn in the side of Forsett’s potential. The Steelers have been pretty tough against the run so far this year, and while some of that may be a small sample size, they were among the best at stopping runs in “power” situations (as defined by Football Outsiders as third or fourth down runs to gain a short first down, or goal-to-go situations), and have stepped up their ability to contain big plays in the running game so far this year. The longest run a running back has achieved against the Steelers this year is only 13 yards. There are better ways to fill the running back spot on your roster in this game, and elsewhere on this weekend slate.
Pass Catchers: So far this season, when the Ravens are throwing the football, you can assume it’s going to one of three possible targets: a tight end, a running back, or Steve Smith (FD $7,300, DK $6,200). The veteran receiver has 40 of his team’s 125 passes credited as targets to him this season, which is more than double any other player on the roster. The running backs combine for 32 targets among the four backs to see a ball thrown their way, and the tight ends have combined for 23. No other receiver has more than 11. If you think the Ravens are going to have success through the air, it would be unwise to not pair Flacco up with his top receiver. Pro Football Focus negatively grades out the starting corners for the Steelers, meaning as Smith moves around the formation, there’s no one to worry about from a matchup standpoint. Smith is a solid play in any format. Outside of Smith? I’m not rostering any other wide receiver, but could see Maxx Williams (FD $4,700, DK $2,500) as a punt at tight end with Crockett Gillmore out. It’s not a great week at that position with Gronkowski missing from the player pool on a bye week, so you could do worse with a punt than a minimum salary player against a team that allowed four touchdowns to tight ends in Week 1, and three in two games against the Ravens last year.
The Takeaway: Flacco and Smith are a great duo for tournaments, or used apart or together in cash games. Maxx Williams is a viable punt in tournaments at tight end, and Forsett is a tournament play at best. There’s no one else of interest on this side of the ball with how sporadic the usage is outside of Smith and Forsett.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback: With Big Ben sidelined due to a knee injury, Michael Vick (FD $6,700, DK $5,000) will start for the Steelers, and while his price is quite low, so are his expectations. The Pittsburgh offense will likely lean on its talented skill position players even more, which will make the offense more predictable and less dynamic and exciting. Vick is known for his athleticism and mobility, but at age 35, don’t expect the 1000-yard rusher from 2006 to return and provide tons of fantasy points with his legs. Instead, expect a few scrambles to provide a decent floor for his fantasy production, and lots of inaccurate throws from a passer never known for his precision, even in his prime. He’s in play due to his price, but I wouldn’t go out of my way to roster Vick on too many lineups. He’s a tournament option with potential, but lots of uncertainty.
Running Game: The Ravens have been pretty tough against opposing running backs so far this season from a fantasy points allowed standpoint. They were quite tough against the position a year ago, never allowing a 100-yard rusher and letting opposing backs into the end zone only seven times all year. One of those was Le’Veon Bell (FD $8,900, DK $7,700), who didn’t live up to his lofty expectations in two matchups with Baltimore last year despite hauling in a touchdown reception in their Week 9 meeting. But the underlying numbers might not be there for the Ravens this year. Last year’s fifth-ranked defense against the run according to Football Outsiders DVOA is currently 20th in the NFL through three games in 2015, and ranks below average at defending backs in the passing game as well. It’s still risky to roster Bell in what was a tough matchup for him last year, but I would never rule out a talented player who is going to get the volume and opportunities against a defense that seems to be over-performing against the run at the moment. Bell is a tournament option.
Pass Catchers: The only reason to not roster Antonio Brown (FD $8,900, DK $9,200) is if you have no faith in Michael Vick to get him the ball accurately. He’s arguably the best receiver in football, and faces a defense with no one capable of defending him. The Ravens gave up 90 yards or more to opposing receivers eight times last year, and two of those were courtesy of Brown. He’ll catch screens and get quick passes thrown his way to let him try to work some magic and make defenders miss, so his PPR floor should be safe, but the quality of his targets will be down, and he’s relegated to tournament status as a result. Julio Jones is a better target if you’re paying up at receiver in cash games.
The Takeaway: The change at quarterback means Michael Vick is a punt at QB, but the offense as a whole will not be as exciting and potent as normal. That means everyone is viable in tournaments, but there are no cash game plays for a home underdog Pittsburgh team counting down the days until their starting signal caller returns.