NFL Grind Down: Week 13, Thursday Edition
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get three months of Grinders Incentives for free ($75 value).
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
| Green Bay Packers | Detroit Lions | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Thursday – 8:25 p.m. | Ford Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 46.5 | 24.75 | 3 | 46.5 | 21.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.8 | 12 | 24 | 10 | Offense | 20.9 | 26 | 7 | 31 | |
| Opp. Defense | 26.2 | 28 | 16 | 22 | Opp. Defense | 19.5 | 6 | 19 | 23 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Detroit Lions | 23 | 14 | 14 | 21 | Green Bay Packers | 19 | 11 | 10 | 27 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Cobb | 94 | 53 | 6 | 646 | Johnson | 110 | 67 | 6 | 921 | |
| Adams | 64 | 32 | 0 | 322 | Tate | 92 | 59 | 2 | 575 | |
| Jones | 56 | 30 | 7 | 592 | Moore | 41 | 27 | 4 | 321 | |
| Rodgers | 60 | 40 | 5 | 304 | Ebron | 46 | 29 | 3 | 348 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Lance Moore (DET, Out), Calvin Johnson (DET, Questionable)
GB Matchup Rating: 7.0
DET Matchup Rating: 4.0
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: It really shouldn’t be a difficult decision to roster the most talented quarterback in football, but Aaron Rodgers (FD $8,700, DK $7,200) hasn’t been quite the stud we’ve expected this season. He has shown flashes of the once automatic DFS option, with three 3+ touchdown outings, but his completion percentage, yards per attempt, and touchdowns have been erratic all season. The Detroit pass defense has been pretty consistent, allowing multiple touchdowns to quarterbacks in all but two games this season, but over their last two games they’ve held the opposing QB under 200 yards and allowed only two touchdown passes. These two teams met in Week 10, and Rodgers threw the ball an astonishing 61 times, and only gained 333 yards and threw for two scores. I don’t expect much more than that this week, but probably on a couple fewer throws. Still, that’s not enough to get excited about, but worthy of a spot in a GPP just in case “old Aaron Rodgers shows back up despite lacking skill position options.
Running Game: According to Football Outsiders, opposing running games have a notably tougher time moving the ball against the Lions than do passing games, and that will likely be the case again this week. It’s easy to dismiss the Lions as a bad team and look to the GB running game for answers, but James Starks (FD $5,700, DK $4,500) couldn’t get anything going in the last meeting between these teams. In fact, over their last three games, the Lions have not allowed a single back to rush for more than Starks’ 42 yards. Prior to that, they did allow Kansas City to rush for multiple scores, and let the Bears, Cardinals, and Chargers all run for two or more TDs. The upside is there, and Eddie Lacy (FD $6,900, DK $5,000) will be getting the first look at carries instead of Starks. The Alabama product has two straight 100-yard efforts, and received five targets in the passing game last week. Lacy is worthy of a spot in a GPP lineup, but this isn’t as an appealing matchup as you might expect against the Lions.
Pass Catchers: The Lions have a corner we should be worried about, as Darius Slay has been playing very well over the last few weeks. Luckily, like most top cover corners, he rarely moves inside, so Randall Cobb (FD $7,100, DK $6,600) is unlikely to see his coverage. Unfortunately, Cobb has been very unreliable this season, as he’s been unable to cope with the lack of Jordy Nelson. Cobb has scored twice in his last four games, but has only 17 catches in those contests. For a receiver who runs such short routes, that’s a disappointing level of volume, and one that shouldn’t appeal to us as DFS players. James Jones (FD $5,500, DK $4,600) and Davante Adams (FD $6,400, DK $4,400) will play outside, and one or the other will be covered by Slay. Adams has fallen off the map since his disappointing effort against the Lions the last time these teams met, so Slay may face up against Jones. This would make Adams the preferred play, but neither holds a lot of appeal on an offense that just hasn’t found its rhythm, playing on a short week on the road. Richard Rodgers (FD $5,100, DK $3,100) might be the most appealing Green Bay player to target, as the tight end has 5 or more targets in each of his last four starts, and in seven of his last eight. Five targets against the Lions, who rank 28th in DVOA against tight ends, could turn into 4 catches for 50 yards and a score. That would more than pay off his bargain salary. He’s not safe enough for cash, but definitely viable in tournaments.
The Takeaway: Richard Rodgers is arguably the top option on the Green Bay offense, while Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams all hold varying degrees of GPP appeal. This team just hasn’t looked right on offense this season, and it’s strange to suggest avoiding them this week, but that might be the right call given their recent performances.
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: Matthew Stafford (FD $7,500, DK $6,100) is incredibly erratic. The two-time NFL leader in pass attempts in a season continues to throw plenty of passes, and not always do a ton with those throws. He has 35 or more attempts in all but three of his games, but has been all over the map in terms of fantasy production. Five touchdowns against the Eagles should come with an asterisk, as Philly is imploding on defense at the moment, while four scores against Chicago several weeks ago stands out as his other big fantasy day of the year. Otherwise, Stafford is only good for a pair of touchdowns and 250+ yards on a good day, with the downside of a couple of picks to go with it. He’s not as cheap as we’d like, and faces a Green Bay defense ranked 11th in DVOA against the pass. He’s at home, however, where he had his two big games this year, so don’t rule out a breakout performance. He’s a secondary GPP option.
Running Game: The folks of fantasy football Twitter are getting their wish, as Ameer Abdullah (FD $5,700, DK $3,700) is getting more consistent touches out of the Detroit backfield. The rookie from Nebraska has 12 and 16 carries in his last two games, the only Lion to see double-digit rushing attempts in those contests. He has yet to recreate the magic of his season-opening 50-yards-and-a-touchdown effort, but he’s a talented player finding his way in the NFL, and seems to have the potential for a big game. A matchup with the Packers might be a good spot depending on where you look, as numberFire ranks Green Bay 24th in the NFL against the run. They otherwise appear to be a fairly neutral matchup for running backs, ranking 15th in DVOA against the run and 25th in points allowed to opposing backs. This means Abdullah is a dart throw at best, as 12-14 carries against a decent defense isn’t a great spot for DFS purposes. Theo Riddick (FD $5,800, DK $3,500) seems to be a solid weekly option, but the Packers have not allowed a back to catch more than five passes this season, and have given up only one receiving touchdown to opposing runners. Riddick is always a GPP option in PPR formats, but this isn’t going to be his best week.
Pass Catchers: Lots of daily fantasy players are going to chase the points with Calvin Johnson (FD $8,500, DK $7,600), and I’m not sure I can give you a good reason why you shouldn’t follow suit. Johnson shows up against the Packers, averaging 91 yards and just shy of a touchdown per game against the Pack in his career, and is alway a threat for video game numbers at the WR position. Matchup doesn’t really matter for Johnson, but it’s encouraging to note that Football Outsiders DVOA ranks the Packers 27th at defending opposing WR1s, having allowed big games to Demaryius Thomas, Keenan Allen, Jeremy Maclin and Doug Baldwin. Johnson has 150-yard, two-score upside, and is a top GPP option this weekend. Golden Tate (FD $6,500, DK $4,800) will see a couple of extra targets with Lance Moore out, as the Lions likely condense their passing game in his absence. Eric Ebron (FD $4,900, DK $3,200) and the other tight ends for Detroit aren’t trustworthy enough, and while this matchup is fairly appealing, it’s just not worth the risk. Stick to Johnson and occasionally mix it up with Tate in tournament contests.
The Takeaway: This game has a fairly high total and should be somewhat evenly matched, but both offenses are tough to trust. Calvin Johnson is a superstar, and is historically good against this team, so there’s no reason to fade him. Otherwise, pick your spots with Stafford, Abdullah and Tate.