NFL Grind Down: Week 4 - Monday Night Football
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow.
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| Kansas City Chiefs | Denver Broncos | |||||||||
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Kansas City Chiefs
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
Quarterback: The Chiefs are 1st in pass DVOA and there hasn’t been any signs of Patrick Mahomes slowing down. The Broncos currently rank 19th in pass DVOA and have allowed the following opposing quarterback performances:
Joe Flacco – 25/40, 277 yards, 1 touchdown
Russell Wilson – 19/33, 298 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions
Derek Carr – 29/32, 288 yards, 1 touchdown
Mahomes now has an absurd 13:0 touchdown to interception ratio. This Broncos defense was one we feared not too long ago but they have shown cracks in their armor. The Broncos defense has just five sacks on the year, tied for 21st in the NFL, and have 15 quarterback hits, tied for 15th in the NFL. I see no reason not to keep riding the Mahomes wave.
Running Backs: Kareem Hunt did find the end zone twice last week against the 49ers but still finished as just the 16th highest scoring running back in Week 3 with 16.4 DraftKings points. Hunt had 18 carries but didn’t catch his lone target and has been non-existent in the passing game. Now through three games, Hunt has just one reception. It’s too early to hit the panic button, but it’s a concern he hasn’t been involved more in the passing game. I’m not ready to call Hunt a touchdown-dependent back, but until he sees more targets, he’s someone I’m not planning to go heavy on. He has only averaged roughly 17 carries per game so far, so he’s not being relied upon at the levels we’ve been used to.
Pass Catchers: Let’s scan through the Chiefs’ 2018 target share through the first three games:
The share has essentially been concentrated mainly among three players (Kelce, Watkins, Hill). The crazy thing is that Mahomes has connected with 12 different players already, and nine of them have caught touchdowns. Even the distribution among Kelce, Watkins and Hill have been fairly even, so Mahomes is utilizing every weapon at his disposal and it could be any number of players having a big day or finding the end zone. This makes it tricky from a DFS perspective to determine who we should prioritize.
Travis Kelce is my favorite of the bunch when factoring in the matchup. The Broncos allowed nine touchdowns last season to tight ends and were a top-five team for tight ends to face from a fantasy perspective. Tyreek Hill would probably be my next priority, but he is expensive. I have no idea if this is just noise or there’s something to it, but Hill’s home/road splits have been pretty dramatic where they are much better on the road, and this is a road game. 12 of his 16 career receiving touchdowns have been on the road, so that’s just something to take note of.
The Takeaway: Keep riding the Patrick Mahomes train. If you wanted to pair him with someone, Travis Kelce and/or Tyreek Hill are my favorite options, with Sammy Watkins third. Mahomes spreads out the ball so much that it could be any number of players going off or grabbing a touchdown. I’m concerned about Kareem Hunt and his lack of pass game work, so I’m more focused on the passing attack on the Chiefs.
Denver Broncos
Notable injuries and suspensions: Butt (Out – ACL)
Quarterback: If you’re playing a slate with this game, all eyes and focus will be on the Chiefs side (and rightfully so the way they’re playing). But there’s merit to loading up on the Broncos side and hoping the Broncos can go off. The Chiefs rank 30th in both pass and run DVOA and have’t shown an ability to stop opposing teams on defense. Case Keenum was dreadful last week, going 22/34 with 192 yards and an interception, but that was against a much better Ravens defense. The Chiefs have allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for 1,088 yards in three games, tied for most in the NFL. They’ve also allowed a 106.3 quarterback rating, an 8:1 touchdown to interception ratio and a 66% completion rate. Keenum isn’t an exciting player but he gets a fantastic matchup here against a weak Chiefs defense that will likely be without Eric Berry once again.
Running Backs: The Broncos remain in a timeshare between Phillip Lindsay, Royce Freeman and Devontae Booker. Lindsay was ejected for fighting in Week 3, which allowed Freeman to rack up 13 carries for 53 yards and a touchdown. Freeman has now scored rushing touchdowns in back-to-back games but hasn’t seen more than his 15 touches from Week 1. I don’t love either of Freeman or Lindsay, but the Chiefs have been awful against the run so it’s conceivable one or both have serviceable games here. If I had to choose one to roster it would be Linsday, but the coaching staff seems content on riding the hot hand so there’s risk in choosing a side here.
Pass Catchers: Emmanuel Sanders (24 targets) and Demaryius Thomas (26 targets) remain the focal point of this offense, and there’s merit to stacking both with Keenum. Sanders remains my preferred play despite seeing two fewer targets as he enters Monday with nearly twice as many receiving yards as Thomas (269 to 144). Sanders also had a 35-yard rushing touchdown last week, so the team is finding creative ways to get the ball in his hand.
Courtland Sutton is third on the team with 14 targets, but it’s possible his role expands now that Jake Butt suffered an ACL tear on Thursday. Sutton has played in 82% and 78% of snaps in the Broncos’ last two games, so he’s getting plenty of playing time. It hasn’t translated to much fantasy production yet, but it has to come at some point with this many snaps.
The Takeaway: I like Case Keenum as a contrarian option given the poor state of this Chiefs defense, and would pair him with one or both of Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas. Courtland Sutton is a sneakier dart throw in tournaments given he’s seeing about 80% of the team’s snaps and may see more looks with Jake Butt done for the year. I don’t love the running back options in a timeshare but would lean Phillip Lindsay over Royce Freeman. The hot hand is going to get the playing time so just know it could vary from week to week.