NFL Grind Down: Week 7, Thursday Edition
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
| Seattle Seahawks | San Francisco 49ers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Thursday – 8:25 p.m. | Candlestick Park | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6 | 42 | 24 | 6 | 42 | 18 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.3 | 17 | 19 | 1 | Offense | 16.7 | 32 | 24 | 9 | |
| Opp. Defense | 26.7 | 25 | 32 | 15 | Opp. Defense | 20.8 | 11 | 8 | 13 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 30 | 26 | 29 | 19 | Seattle Seahawks | 11 | 1 | 2 | 30 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Baldwin | 31 | 26 | 291 | 291 | Boldin | 47 | 28 | 333 | 333 | |
| Kearse | 26 | 18 | 274 | 274 | Smith | 25 | 14 | 323 | 323 | |
| Lockett | 19 | 12 | 0 | 139 | Ellington | 4 | 4 | 44 | 44 | |
| Graham | 40 | 29 | 344 | 344 | Davis | 16 | 8 | 109 | 109 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Reggie Bush (SF, Probable), Anquan Boldin, Carlos Hyde (SF, Questionable)
SEA Matchup Rating: 6.5
SF Matchup Rating: 1.5
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback: So far this season (which is admittedly a very small sample size relative to a lot of the data we like to use), the San Francisco 49ers have been a much, much different team at home than on the road when it comes to playing defense. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging an ANY/A (per Pro Football Reference) over five yards lower in the Bay Area than they are when facing the Niners on home turf. ANY/A takes into account sacks and interceptions, and is the best overall indicator of quarterback performance as it correlates most closely to wins and losses as compared to other quarterback statistics. In fact, their home ANY/A allowed is on-par with the dominant defenses we’ve seen over the past few years, while their road ANY/A allowed is on par with the worst in football.
Do I think Russell Wilson (FD $8,100, DK $6,500) will be intimidated by a trip to San Francisco? Not at all. But I think it’s foolish to expect him to dominate the 49ers the way we’ve seen quarterbacks play so well against them in road games this year. I’m likely skipping this Thursday slate altogether, apart from a tournament lineup or two, but if I was playing, I wouldn’t be including Wilson in any cash lineups, and he’s not a top option in tournaments either. He’s priced fairly, but on par with some passers in great spots during the weekend slate who don’t face such tough home/road splits.
Running Game: Those home/road splits are tough on running backs as well, at least in terms of finding the end zone. But I am a firm believer that Marshawn Lynch (FD $8,200, DK $6,900) is matchup proof, and would use him in this situation the same way I would in any other situation. He has played well against younger, better iterations of this San Francisco defense, and while his offensive line isn’t as dominant as it was during many of those meetings, he’s still more than capable of breaking a big run or two and wearing down the defense and punching in a touchdown. He saw all but one rushing attempt (from backs, Russell Wilson had a few carries) last weekend, and we should expect more of the same this week in a game the Seahawks should win with a bit of room to spare. His price isn’t all that appealing, but he’s viable for tournaments thanks to his multiple touchdown upside. He’s the team’s top option in the red zone, and the only skill position player with a consistent workload. If you expect a big Seattle win, you want Beast Mode in your lineups.
Pass Catchers: If we could be confident at all that the 12, 8 and 8 target totals Jimmy Graham (FD $6,300, DK $5,400) has seen so far this season were a reasonable floor, he’d be well worth a look this week against the Niners, even though they’re tougher to pass against at home. But games with 2, 5 and 5 targets, and the fact that he only has more than one red zone target in one game this season, leaves him with a share of the offense more fitting for a mediocre tight end priced $1,000 cheaper. He’s obviously talented, and if you want to bet on last week’s surge in volume as a predictor of things to come, throw him in tournament lineups. I won’t be, however. No other player had more than four targets against Carolina, a trend far too common among Seattle receivers. There’s a case to be made for Russell Wilson on his own in a tournament, but not for any of his wide receivers.
The Takeaway: The 49ers are a bit of a mess right now, but much less so when playing at home in their new stadium. Seattle’s offense isn’t clicking yet, and may not start clicking at all this season, thanks to a drop in performance from the offensive line, but that doesn’t mean Marshawn Lynch is worthy of a complete fade. The rest of this offense is tough to trust, especially if they get out to a big lead in this game and coast to victory. The defense and special teams have playmakers who can score touchdowns, and they should get a healthy amount of points from limiting production, getting sacks, and securing turnovers. You can use the Seattle D/ST in any format.
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback: Andy Dalton and Aaron Rodgers both threw for two touchdowns against the Seahawks, but the other four quarterbacks to face the Seattle defense combined for two touchdowns and two interceptions on 115 attempts, yet with a couple of rushing touchdowns mixed in. That last tidbit would inspire a bit of hope for Colin Kaepernick (FD $6,900, DK $5,000) and his fantasy outlook, except that the Seahawks have kept him from rushing for a touchdown in each of their six meetings so far in his career, and have limited him to only three passing touchdowns as compared to nine interceptions in those games. The floor is way too low, and the ceiling isn’t particularly high in this tough matchup, so I’ll be staying away from Kaepernick on Thursday night.
Running Game: Carlos Hyde (FD $6,800, DK $4,600) dominates the rushing attempts for the 49ers, and while he’s dealing with a nagging foot injury, he should still be able to play. But at less than 100% in a nightmare matchup, I can’t justify spending salary on him this week. The Seahawks have allowed the fewest points per games to running backs this season, and while they did just allow their first two rushing touchdowns of the season last week, I don’t expect a repeat performance, especially not with an offensive line that includes four players graded out as a backup or below replacement level by Pro Football Focus.
Pass Catchers: It’s a shame that the offensive line and quarterback have performed so poorly for the Niners this season, because their pass catchers are actually somewhat intriguing. Anquan Boldin (FD $6,300, DK $4,500) is Kaepernick’s favorite target, and is a reliable receiver who will pick up a handful of catches more often than not, while seeing far more red zone targets than anyone else on the San Francisco roster. Boldin has been thrown to 14 times inside the opponent’s 20 so far this season, no other player has more than four such targets. Vernon Davis (FD $4,800, DK $3,000) is an interesting alternative, but his workload hasn’t come back since his injury early this season, and he’s now just one of a handful of receivers who don’t see enough work in this subpar offense to justify legitimate consideration. But if you’re going way off the radar, Davis faces a defense that’s been beaten by tight ends in the past, and he’s one of Kaepernick’s favorite targets.
The Takeaway: It’s tough to recommend anyone from this offense in a game that should see the 49ers scoring one or two touchdowns at most. Anquan Boldin is your best shot at a touchdown without the downside of interceptions you get from rostering Kaepernick. Otherwise, save your San Francisco exposure for cheap tournaments where you really, really want to go contrarian.