NFL Grind Down: Wild Card Weekend

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2014-01-04 08:19:32

Welcome to the RotoGrinders Weekly NFL Grind Down Article. There’s no better place to start your research for NFL action in the week ahead than the Grind Down. Each week, we break down every game in an effort to better prepare you when building your daily fantasy lineups.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Kansas City at Indianapolis

Kansas City Chiefs						Indianapolis Colts
Sat – 4:25 PM ET						Lucas Oil Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2.5	46.5	22				-2.5	46.5	24.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.9	6	24	10		Offense	24.4	14	17	20
Defense	19.1	5	25	22		Defense	21.0	9	13	26
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Indianapolis	13	11	22	7		Kansas City	18	17	12	2
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Bowe	105	6.9	7.0			Hilton	138	8.4	11.3	15.0
Avery	72	4.4	2.3	0.0		Whalen	40	4.4	6.7	7.0
McCluster	81	5.5	4.5	6.0		Rogers	23	4.6	4.7	2.0
Fasano	33	3.8	4.0			Fleener	88	5.3	2.7	4.0

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs backups put in an impressive effort in Week 17, and in doing so they were the only playoff team that was able to fully rest their starters in the last week of the season. They’ll head to Indianapolis to take on a Colts team that dismantled them just two weekends ago in Kansas City. In that game, Alex Smith turned the ball over 4 times with 2 INTs and 2 fumbles lost. Before Week 15, Smith hadn’t lost a fumble all season but after dropping one against Oakland followed by the 2 vs. IND, Smith finished the season with 3 in his last 2 games. A big reason for Smith’s struggles was the Colts pass rush, which was able to bring him down 5 times in that game. According to PFF, Smith was pressured on 13 of 36 dropbacks and had a miserable 17.5 NFL QBR on those plays. On the season, Smith has just a 66.0 QBR on plays where he’s under pressure compared to 97.0 QBR on dropbacks without. It’s not surprising that he feels more comfortable with time to pass, but it is concerning that their offensive line struggled so much with containing a pass rush that ranked in the bottom half of the NFL on PFF’s pass rush ratings.

On the outside, Dwayne Bowe is Smith’s best receiving option by far but actually finished the season 2nd in targets. Smith doesn’t love throwing the ball downfield and targeted RB Jamaal Charles 104 times compared to 103 for Bowe. Bowe will matchup pretty heavily with Vontae Davis on the outside. Davis absolutely fell apart for a stretch in the middle of the season, and is listed as questionable for this game, but he came on strong in the last three weeks. He graded out with a positive pass coverage rating on PFF for Weeks 15-17. The Colts on the whole had a 5 week stretch earlier in the year where at least one opposing WR had 100 or more receiving yards, but have improved since Week 13, holding 5 consecutive teams without a receiver with more than 80 yards. Overall, they rank 4th against WRs and given how little Smith goes to the outside, it’s unlikely Kansas City will test that.

That’s where Charles comes in, and he did manage 5 catches for 38 yards in the Week 16 matchup vs. IND. Before that, Charles had his historic 8 catch, 195 yard and 4 TD game vs. Oakland but looking back even further, the Chiefs moved away from the screen game after the bye week and Andy Reid worked on opening up the offense. Charles had 8 total receptions over a three week span, while the Chiefs went 0-3 when trying to play a more uptempo style with the high-powered Broncos and Chargers offenses. A lot of Charles’ impact will depend on how this game plays out, but he did go for 106 rushing yards on only 13 carries against IND in Week 16. Overall, Indy has allowed 100+ total rushing yards to opposing RBs in 4 of their last 5 games while allowing the 15th most FPPG in that 5 week span.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts get to host KC on Saturday afternoon while having already beaten the Chiefs on their home turf this year. They come in as 2.5 point favorites against a defense that has been fading fast. Over the last 5 weeks, the Chiefs have allowed the 6th most FPPG to opposing QBs, 7th most FPPG to opposing RBs, 5th most to opposing WRs, and 15th most to opposing TEs. In the Week 16 battle with KC, Griff Whalen was the Colts most productive receiver and he was able to haul in 8 balls for 80 yards. He’s broken out over his last three weeks in general, and has overtaken the role that Darrius Heyward-Bey was supposed to play after the loss of Reggie Wayne. Here are Whalen’s last three game logs:

• Week 15 vs. CIN – 4 Rec, 45 RecYd, 1 RecTD
• Week 16 vs. KC – 8 Rec, 78 RecYd, 0 RecTD
• Week 17 vs. JAX – 4 Rec, 32 RecYd, 1 RecTD

In that three game stretch, Whalen has seen 20 targets with 5 of those 20 coming inside the red zone. Whalen could have some sneaky upside in this game, but still the receiving corps for IND starts with T.Y. Hilton right now who notched 11 catches for 155 yards in the season finale vs. JAX. He’s now been targeted 34 times over his last three games. What’s alarming with T.Y. is that he only has 5 receiving touchdowns on the year and those came in two games (2 vs. SEA, 3 vs. HOU) and he hasn’t found pay dirt since Week 9.

As far as coverage goes, the Chiefs didn’t have much success against Hilton when he was targeted in Week 16, but he saw just 7 total looks in that game with 5 going for receptions and 52 yards. Hilton, who ran routes out of the slot on over 40% of downs this season, will see a heavy dose of Brandon Flowers, who has slot coverage responsibilities on over 50% of plays. According to the incredible advanced stats on ProFootballFocus Flowers was thrown at 48 times when in coverage in the slot this season, allowing 33 receptions for 345 receiving yards. Flowers has been up and down all season, but improved over his final two games in Weeks 15 and 16 by posting positive pass coverage ratings on PFF after 7 consecutive negative coverage ratings. When productive, Flowers is one of the best slot corners in the game and Hilton may find more success on the outside than trying to mix it up with him underneath and over the middle.

Moving from the passing game onto the ground, Donald Brown will lead the Colts rushing attack against a Chiefs defense that rested all 11 regular starters in Week 17. Throwing out those stats, Brown was actually the last back to face the real Chiefs defense and he went for 79 yards on just 10 carries with a TD. He also contributed 2 receptions for 31 more yards and another score. Brown and Richardson combined for 122 rushing yards on the day, meaning all but one team since Week 9 has been able to total 100 or more RuYd from their RBs. Much of the struggle has been due to the loss of Justin Houston, who hasn’t played in the Chiefs last 4 games and rates out as the 4th best rush stopping outside linebacker for 3-4 schemes in the NFL on ProFootballFocus. Houston is expected to make his return this week and could spark a Kansas City defense that was lackluster even before he went down, but should be far more stout with him prowling that LOLB position. Brown and Richardson make for intriguing upside plays, but the matchup should be a little tougher than the one they faced in Week 16 and the timeshare between the two makes it very difficult to guess which will get more touches, even though it’s been more than clear that Brown is more explosive right now.

KC @ IND – Daily Fantasy Relevant

• Alex Smith – Smith is the cheapest QB available across the board this weekend, meaning he could provide some nice salary relief but should really only be considered on 2 QB sites. On the 1 QB sites, you’ll need to hit on at least one of the top 3 scoring quarterbacks to win most contests and it’s unlikely Smith ends up in that range.

• Jamaal Charles – The matchup isn’t great as Indy is right around the middle of the pack over the last 5 weeks against RBs, but Charles has proven he’s essentially matchup proof and you know that Andy Reid is going to rely on him heavily to keep KC in this game. He’s the most expensive RB across the board, but you know you’ll probably get 100+ yards and a touchdown.

• Dwayne Bowe – Bowe could be considered a bargain bin play on most sites this weekend, which makes him very relevant given his talent level. He’ll match up heavily with a banged up Vontae Davis and while his upside has been limited this season, he could get you 5-6 catches for 50+ yards for just $6K on DS, $8500 on DD and $82K on Feud.

• Dexter McCluster – McCluster becomes relevant on the short slate but he also has shown some upside at times this season. He’s an athletic freak who can play all over the field and using him on quick passes to neutralize the pass rush of Robert Mathis is going to be essential for Alex Smith. He’s $4.8K on DS, $3.7K on DK and $6.7K on FTD most notably. Donnie Avery is a similar play but is used more for home run type throws than in the short passing game.

• Andrew Luck – I was high on Luck the last time these teams played, and at home in the playoffs I’m even higher. KC’s secondary is overrated and Luck’s stat line would’ve been a whole lot bigger had the Chiefs not turned the ball over a ton and that game got out of hand. Luck’s best value by far comes at $15.3K on DD, but he’s a middle of the pack priced QB across the board and could be used on most sites this weekend.

• Donald Brown – Brown is juicy at $5.8K on FD and $7K on DS. The Chiefs have allowed the 8th most yards per carry this season and if Brown can get enough touches he should have a good enough day to cover value on most sites.

• Trent Richardson – I’d only use T-Rich in spots where he’s much cheaper than Brown, such as FTD where he’s $7.4K compared to $8.5 for Brown or DK where he’s $600 less. With that said, he’s nothing more than a GPP option who’s in play strictly because of the short slate of games and other RBs available.

• T.Y. Hilton – Hilton’s price didn’t shoot up too much after his monster Week 17 game, and at $5.6K on FD he’s really underpriced. The same could be said, although not as drastically, for his $9K price tag on DS and $6.1K spot on DK.

• Griff Whalen – Whalen wrapped up the last 3 weeks of the regular season with 3 consecutive double digit fantasy games and was targeted 20 times by Luck in that span. He’s a great GPP punt option this weekend for $4693 on DS, $4.9K on FD and $3.3K on DK.

• Coby Fleener – KC ranks 28th against tight ends over the last 3 weeks, so the match up for Fleener is pretty solid. With that said, he hasn’t been as involved in the Colts scheme recently so there are definitely some red flags with this play. He’s definitely price dependent but at $3.7K on DK you won’t hear any argument from me if you decide to roster him.

New Orleans at Philadelphia

New Orleans Saints						Philadelphia Eagles
Sat – 8:10 PM ET						Lincoln Financial Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2.5	54.5	26				-2.5	54.5	28.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.9	10	2	25		Offense	27.6	4	9	1
Defense	19.0	4	2	19		Defense	23.9	17	32	10
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Philadelphia	30	12	32	9		New Orleans	5	10	6	10
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Colston	110	7.4	9.7	6.0		Jackson	126	7.9	8.3	4.0
Moore	54	4.2	5.0	5.0		Cooper	84	5.2	4.3	3.0
Stills	51	3.2	3.0	1.0		Avant	76	4.8	4.3	5.0
Graham	144	8.9	8.3	8.0		Celek	50	3.2	3.3	5.0

New Orleans Saints

This is the big game that most will be targeting, and for good reason given the 54.5 over/under. There will be some questions about the weather here, but for now the Winter Storm ‘Hercules’ is expected to hit Philadelphia on Friday and the weather Saturday will be about 32 degrees without any chance of precipitation. Now that that’s out of the way, let’s talk football. New Orleans has been an up and down offense all season, differing greatly on the road versus at home. Drew Brees, in particular, has fallen victim to the road game struggles and when splits are as drastic as his, it is certainly worth looking into. Here’s the breakdown:

The stats are certainly staggering, but trying to find a reason beneath them is even more challenging. The average Defense vs. Quarterbacks rank of teams Brees faced at home this season was 15.5, which is slightly better but not noticeably different than the 14.5 average he faced on the road in 2013. So then I thought it might be dome related, since the Saints play on the turf for 50% of their games at the SuperDome. That didn’t check out either, as Brees struggled in 2 road games in domes vs. Atlanta and St. Louis (neither defense being all that intimidating). Against the Falcons, he had 278 yards and 2 TDs, which are fine stats for most QBs but far from the elite number we’d expect by Brees against a bad secondary. And at St. Louis, Brees threw for 393 and 2 scores but was picked twice and spent the majority of the second half playing catch up after burying New Orleans in a hole. Regardless of the dome factor, it’s clear that Brees struggles away from the bayou and the entire offense is bogged down with him.

With that out of the way, you can guarantee that the biggest matchup nightmare for Philadelphia this weekend will be Jimmy Graham. Last weekend, the Eagles gave up 12 receptions for 135 yards against Jason Witten, as well as a 17 yard TD reception to 2nd string TE Gavin Escobar. The week before that, Martellus Bennett was able to spring 85 receiving yards on 5 receptions against Philly. Overall, the Eagles have allowed the 3rd most FPPG to opposing TE’s in the last 5 weeks, and the 5th most over the last 3 weeks. Graham meanwhile has pretty much identical stat lines over his last two, bringing in 5 catches for 70-75 yards and a score in each.

As far as who will cover Graham, that’s a hotly debated topic this week, but my guess is that he’ll see a mixture of Mychal Kendricks and Brandon Boykin. Kendricks is the most athletic linebacker that the Eagles have but at just 6 feet tall, he falls seven inches short of Graham’s 6’7” stature. Kendricks rated out on PFF as the 2nd worst inside linebacker, among 66 qualified ILB’s, in terms of pass coverage. If Kendricks is in coverage, expect Patrick Chung to help out but he rated in the bottom 10 of qualified safeties in pass coverage this season as well. The better option might be the CB Boykin who plays slot corner on about 75% of downs. Graham will line up anywhere from the line to the slot to wide out, but came out of the slot on just under 50% of downs according to PFF. Boykin also gives up a ton of size to Graham though, and despite being one of the best slot corners in the NFL this season he’d likely have trouble with a 9 inch height differential.

In general, the Eagles secondary isn’t very good and the Saints will certainly have openings to throw into. Marques Colston ended 2013 on a high note, grabbing at least 5 balls for 60 or more yards in each of his last 4 games of the regular season. Colston was targeted 42 times in that span, but saw just 6 targets in Week 17 as the Saints mopped the floor with Tampa Bay. Brees loves to spread the ball around, as was showcased by the four different receivers (Colston not being one) to catch a touchdown in that Week 17 game. Stills represents the deep threat whose value is heavily reliant on getting over the top of the secondary for one big TD catch per game. Lance Moore quietly has 70+ yards receiving in 2 of his last three games and could be an intriguing option in this weekends games as well.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles snuck by a Romo-less Cowboys team in Week 17 despite struggling at times moving the ball on a pretty miserable Dallas defense. Nick Foles did throw for 263 yards and 2 TDs, but both DeSean Jackson and Riley Cooper struggled on the outside. Over 110 of those 263 receiving yards came from the tight end combo of Ertz and Celek. At least one of the two has found pay dirt in four of the Eagles last 5 games and combined they have five double digit fantasy games in PHI’s last 5 weeks. On the other side, the Saints have allowed the 6th most FPPG to opposing TE’s in that same 5 week stretch. In that time, tight ends have 4 receiving touchdowns vs. NO including big games allowed to Zach Miller (5 rec, 86 yds, 1 TD) and Tim Wright (5 rec, 58 yds, 1 TD). The biggest challenge with the Philly tight ends is deciding which will have the big game. Last week, they were both targeted an even 5 times, but since the Eagles Week 9 bye, Celek has had more targets in 2 games, Ertz has lead in two games and they’ve tied twice. For Jackson and Cooper on the outside, it could be a tough day again as the Saints have only allowed 1 100+ yard receiver all season (Jeffery in Week 5). Over the last 5 weeks, the Saints have allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points per game to opposing WR’s, and the 8th fewest over the last 3 weeks. That success against WRs hasn’t necessarily translated to success vs. QBs though, and they rank 18th in FPPG-allowed to QBs over that 5 week span.

On the ground, LeSean McCoy finished his impressive regular season with his second consecutive 130+ rushing yard effort in Week 17. He ended the year as the NFL rushing leader and has been incredibly impressive in Chip Kelly’s revamped offense. He’ll draw a middle of the pack Saints rush defense in the Wild Card Round, whose true ability to stop the run might be embellished when looking at their defense vs. position figures. Only four teams have been able to truly commit to using their featured back against New Orleans this season and run the ball at least 18 times with the RB1. All four of those RBs went for over 95 rushing yards, and the Saints allowed the 5th most yards per carry in the NFL at 4.6.

• Week 2 – Doug Martin – 29 Rush Att, 144 RuYd, 0 RuTD, 14.4 FP
• Week 15 – Zac Stacy – 28 Rush Att, 133 RuYd, 1 RuTD, 20.8 FP
• Week 6 – Stevan Ridley – 20 Rush Att, 96 RuYd, 2 RuTD, 23.5 FP
• Week 9 – Chris Ivory – 18 Rush Att, 139 RuYd, 1 RuTD, 19.9 FP

McCoy has had at least 18 touches in 11 different games this season and I’d be shocked if the Eagles suddenly stopped using their best asset in the playoffs. Given the home field advantage and the high volume of plays the Eagles want to run, McCoy should be a lock to get 20+ touches and over 100 yards in this contest.

NO @ PHI – Daily Fantasy Relevant

• Drew Brees – If you’re paying for Brees, you’re paying for the most expensive QB on the board on all 7 sites on Sunday. Consider the drop off between himself and guys like Foles/Rodgers before plugging him in, especially on the road. On DK, SS and FTD, that gap is pretty narrow and you aren’t sacrificing a ton of salary to get him into your lineups.

• Pierre Thomas – He’s the cheapest RB1 on all 7 sites this weekend and although he’s struggled in recent weeks, he still brings tremendous PPR value to the table. It’s also pretty likely that Sproles struggles in the cold, outdoor conditions and Thomas’ home/road splits haven’t been nearly as drastic as some of the other Saints players this year.

UPDATE: PIERRE THOMAS HAS BEEN RULED OUT FOR THIS GAME. Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles will split snaps in this one. Sproles will see a few more targets than usual and gets a nice boost in full point PPR formats, while Ingram is more of a downhill runner who would likely only have value if the Saints have a late lead and need to pound the running game.

• Darren Sproles – He slides in as a GPP play, much like T-Rich from above, because of the short schedule and limited options. He’s an outside the box play who I don’t particularly love because of his struggles outside of the Super Dome but he can turn 5 catches into 80 yards receiving and a touchdown in a hurry. For $4.3K on DK or $7.5K on FTD, he’s a bargain.

• Marques Colston – Colston’s strong last quarter of the season has me feeling a lot better about trusting him in cash games, especially against a pretty soft Philadelphia secondary. The Eagles sound really worried about stopping Graham (based on some Chip Kelly interviews I’ve seen), which means they might overlook Colston’s talent a bit and he’ll see some single coverage he can take advantage of. His $11.4K tag on DD and $5.8K price point on FD stand out to me the most.

• Lance Moore – Moore’s value ebbs and flows a bit week to week, but again on a short slate you have to at least consider every option. He’s priced near the bottom of the pack on every site and is coming off a four catch, 73 yard and 1 TD performance in Week 17.

• Kenny Stills – Stills is your GPP special this weekend. He’s going to either give you a nice bagel or go for a 70 yard TD bomb. He saw one target last weekend, and he housed it on a 76 yard reception. His best value is $3.2K on DK and $5.4K on FTD.

• Jimmy Graham – It’s a great matchup for Graham but you’ll have to pay the price to get him. It’ll be a challenge to build a lineup around him and Brees, but it’s doable and he could outscore the other tight ends this weekend by a solid 10 fantasy points easily.

• Nick Foles – Right behind Brees is Foles, who is the 2nd highest priced QB on every site this weekend. The dropoff from Brees to Foles is pretty significant in a few spots though, and Foles may have more bang for the buck on DS, FD and DD. With that said, he’s been extremely consistent and makes for one of, if not the best head to head or 50/50 play in this high-scoring game.

• LeSean McCoy – McCoy is priced as the RB2 across the board and is slightly cheaper than Charles on every site. I have him ranked as my top RB of the weekend given the matchup against what might be an overrated Saints front 7. You know he’ll get 18-20 touches at least and should be Chip Kelly’s best weapon in keeping Brees off the field.

• DeSean Jackson – There are two sites in particular where Jackson seems underpriced. For $11.6K on DD he’s cheap and also on DraftKings where he’s $6.5K. On a number of sites he’s more or right around the price point of Jordy Nelson, so he may be worth avoiding there.

• Riley Cooper – Cooper is another boom or bust WR who finds most of his value when he’s able to break a couple of big plays. After posting 3 20 fantasy point games between Weeks 6 and 10, he hasn’t gone over 12 since so there is certainly a lot of risk in taking him, but for $5500 on FD, $7.3K on DS and just $4.5K on DK he’s cheap enough to warrant a shot.

• Brent Celek and Zach Ertz – It’s tough to know which TE will see the majority of love from Foles, but my best guess would be Celek who has 6 receptions for 130 yards and 2 TDs over the last two games. Ertz probably has more upside though, with a 21 and 14 point fantasy effort in the last five weeks.

Saturday Games – Sunday Games