NFL Market Update: Super Bowl Odds Heading Into Week 4
The 2021 NFL season has been an absolute roller-coaster of emotions, almost as excitedly frenetic as my daughter when I take her to the zoo on a busy day. We have seen each of last February’s Super Bowl teams, the Buccaneers and Chiefs, drop games. Carolina, Arizona, and Las Vegas surprisingly lie amongst the field of five undefeated teams. The LA Rams have dominated out of the gate, and sit atop the majority of analysts’ current power rankings. But the season still has 15 weeks remaining, and a whopping 11 teams have 2-1 records—indeed, anything can happen between now and February 2022.
Without further ado, let’s dive into the updated Super Bowl odds at online sportsbooks, and make some picks before the Jaguars and Bengals kick off Thursday Night Football!
All odds are from BetMGM, and all stats are from NFL.com and Pro Football Reference.
2021 Super Bowl Odds Board – Top 10 in Week 4
Kansas City Chiefs +600 (last week’s rank/odds: No. 1/+500)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +600 (last week: No. 2/+575)
Los Angeles Rams +800 (No. 4/+1200)
Buffalo Bills +900 (No. 3/+1200)
Cleveland Browns +1400 (No. 8/+1 ,600)
Green Bay Packers +1400 (No. 7/+1400)
San Francisco 49ers +1400 (No. 5/+1200)
Baltimore Ravens +1600 (No. 6/+1400)
Los Angeles Chargers +1800 (outside top 10/+3000)
Arizona Cardinals +2500 (No. 10/+2500)
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Not much has changed from Week 3 to Week 4, but the Los Angeles Rams pushed up +400 and leap-frogged the Buffalo Bills, who jumped up +300 despite dropping a spot. Both these teams have played the best from top-to-bottom in their respective conferences through three games, but oddsmakers understandably still consider Kansas City and Tampa Bay the odds-on favorites.
It’s hard to ignore how awesome the Rams have looked. I mentioned in this column last week that they were the best bet over +1000, so hopefully you got in before their rise to the top. QB Matthew Stafford has looked like an early MVP front-runner, and his chemistry with Cooper Kupp and company has been impressive. After knocking off Tom Brady and the defending-champion Buccaneers, the Rams have earned their rightful spot atop the NFL power rankings.
In the AFC, the Bills are cooking with gas again. Josh Allen, the MVP runner-up last season, helped Buffalo destroy Washington last week. He collected 358 passing yards and five total touchdowns in the process, and Buffalo’s defense looked impressive as well. I’ve been in on the Bills for the better part of five years, and it looks like they are finally poised to make a legit run at the Super Bowl. I like their value at +900, and wouldn’t be surprised if they continue to climb.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs and Bucs yield almost no value as currently constituted. Kansas City has encountered struggles in the passing game that we haven’t seen in the Patrick Mahomes era. And Tampa Bay’s typically-dominant defense has been exposed multiple times, most notably in the secondary. The surprising signing of Richard Sherman shows how desperate Bruce Arians and company are to plug their holes. Stay away from the front runners at these odds.
Back the Packers?
Last week, I wrote about the Green Bay Packers being the most complete team over +1000 in Super Bowl odds boards. At +1400, the Pack’s odds to win Super Bowl LVI remain unchanged, despite Aaron Rodgers taking down the 49ers in San Fran on a game-winning drive that took him just 37 seconds. You won’t have many more opportunities to bet Green Bay at these odds.
Moving up to the top ten list, and bouncing the Seattle Seahawks like a swift hind leg-kick from a horse, the Los Angeles Chargers are for real. The chemistry between 2020 Rookie of the Year Justin Herbert and breakout wide receiver Mike Williams has been eye-popping, and LA actually seems to have a semblance of a defense now. Plus, dual-threat running back Austin Ekeler is healthy, happily dominating opposing front-sevens. The Bolts might be worth a small wager.
One thing to keep an eye on: the San Francisco 49ers and their quarterback situation. Niners Nation—players and fans alike—seemingly believe in rookie QB Trey Lance way more than head coach Kyle Shanahan. Lance provides spark, energy, and movement when veteran QB Jimmy Garoppolo gets stuck in the mud. This team is a contender the moment Lance gets promoted.
Surprisingly still at the end of the top ten list, the Arizona Cardinals didn’t move in any way, shape, or form despite winning their third of three games. Oddsmakers probably don’t believe in Arizona’s body of work, or in the Cardinals defense. But Kyler Murray and company destroyed the Titans—a playoff team one season ago—in Week 1, and outlasted a strong Minnesota offense in Week 2. And Arizona’s D has taken a major step forward with J.J. Watt teaming up with Chandler Jones on the pass rush. Vance Joseph’s unit has held two of its first three opponents under 20 points, and ranks second in the NFL in takeaways (7), average time per defensive possession (2:20), and opposing third-down conversion percentage (25.7%). The Desert Birds deserve more respect than their +2500 number commands.
Best Longshots
Last week, I detailed the Dallas Cowboys at +3000 as my favorite longshot bet on the Super Bowl odds board. I’m sticking with them, and can’t believe they only shot up by +500 after winning their second of three games. Their only loss was in the NFL season-opener to the reigning champs. I would bet the Cowboys over the Browns, 49ers, and Ravens, to name a few.
Sports books probably still don’t believe in the Dallas defense, but it’s a largely-improved unit. I have been most impressed with rookie linebacker Micah Parsons and stud second-year cornerback Trevon Diggs. With an ever-improving D, a healthy Dak Prescott under center, and a barrage of offensive weapons—headlined by second-year wideout CeeDee Lamb and perennial Pro Bowler “(player-popup #ezekiel-elliott)Ezekiel Elliott”:/players/ezekiel-elliott-35540—this team seems like a legitimate contender.
Another intriguing longshot? The Las Vegas Raiders, who remain undefeated through three games. Veteran quarterback Derek Carr is playing like he did in 2016, when he finished third in MVP voting. The QB currently leads the NFL in passing yards (1203, good for 401 yards per game), and he’s making a name out of young wideouts Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards, and Hunter Renfroe. And we all know about talented pass-catching tight end Darren Waller.
If the Raiders can improve upon their pass-rush and secondary—and Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake can stay relatively healthy—they could make a run at the ship. They seem to have a “why not us?” mindset, and we’ve seen head coach Jon Gruden make fringe playoff teams into Super Bowl contenders before. At +3000, they’re worth at least a $5 wager to win $300.
Image Credit: Imagn