NFL Pick'em Pool Picks Week 2: Straight Up & Against the Spread
After going 10-6 in Week 1, including hitting on three underdogs, we are back with our Week 2 NFL Pick’em selections!
There are multiple formats for pick’em tournaments, including the picking against the spread and ranking selections in confidence intervals. In this column, we will touch on both the classic style and picking against the spread each week.
I will start by ranking each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks, then Matt Schmitto will break down his top five picks against the spread. Also, don’t miss my Week 2 Survivor Guide if you’re still alive in your eliminator pools!
NFL Week 2 Pick’em Pool Picks: Tips, Strategy
Week 2 Selections
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2. Cleveland Browns
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Kansas City Chiefs
5. Los Angeles Rams
6. Buffalo Bills
7. Seattle Seahawks
8. Los Angeles Chargers
9. Arizona Cardinals
10. Cincinnati Bengals
11, San Francisco 49ers
12. New England Patriots
13. Las Vegas Raiders
14. New York Giants
15. New Orleans Saints
16. Denver Broncos
Heavy Favorites
Since 2003, teams favored by more than 11 points in the NFL are 270-35-1, which translates to an 89% win-percentage. Having established the strong likelihood that these three teams will win this week, it makes sense to have each of them occupy the top three spots in your confidence rankings. For the non-mathematicians, three individual outcomes that each have an 89 percent chance of occurring means that there is a 70 percent likelihood that all three events manifest. For sports bettors, a parlay on Tampa Bay, Cleveland, and Green Bay to win this week can be had at -187, which is a 65.2 implied odds price. That line is mispriced by almost five percent based on nearly two decades of historical data.
Chiefs (vs. Ravens)
The Ravens allowed 33 points to Derek Carr and the Raiders in an embarrassing Week 1 loss. If Carr can throw for 435 yards and two touchdowns against a Baltimore defense that had over a week to prepare for that matchup, what is Patrick Mahomes capable of doing this week against a Ravens team that is on a short turnaround after playing on Monday night? Lamar Jackson continues to struggle throwing the ball down-the-field. Jackson isn’t helped at all by a porous offensive line and a makeshift running back unit. Kansas City did not play all that well against Cleveland in Week 1, but still managed to put up 33 points and come away with a victory. Expect a cleaner performance from the Chiefs in Week 2, resulting in a Kansas City win.
Rams (vs. Colts)
Last week in this column, we talked about how we expected Matthew Stafford to be a great fit in Head Coach Sean McVay’s offense. However, I do not think anyone could have predicted that he would look that good—even against a weak Chicago Bears secondary. Stafford threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1 on only 26 pass attempts. In Week 2, he has a favorable matchup against an Indianapolis Colts secondary that allowed Russell Wilson to throw for four touchdowns in their season opener. The Rams are better on both sides of the ball in this one. There is always a slight concern with a west coast team traveling into an east coast time zone, but the talent disparity on the field is enormous in this game. The Rams should have little trouble earning a win on Sunday.
Bills (vs. Dolphins)
Did Buffalo look awful in their Week 1 loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers? Yes. Still, this team is still comprised primarily of players that played in the AFC Championship Game in 2020. Despite the loss, the Bills defense looked good, holding Ben Roethlisberger to 188 yards passing and only one touchdown. If not for a blocked punt that Pittsburgh returned for a touchdown, Buffalo could have been looking for a 2-0 start to the year in Florida this weekend.
Tua Tagovailoa was unimpressive in the Dolphins’ Week 1 victory. If not for a late fumble by Damien Harris, we might have seen a lot more pundits discussing whether or not Tagovailoa is capable of being a high-caliber NFL starter. He was outplayed by rookie Mac Jones in Week 1. Expect Josh Allen to have a big game in Week 2 and for Buffalo to silence any concerns surrounding his football team.
Seahawks (vs. Titans)
Russell Wilson was exceptional in Week 1, throwing for four touchdowns in the Seahawks’ win over the Colts. Even more impressive, the Seattle defense made life extremely difficult for Carson Wentz and company all afternoon. On the other hand, the Titans were awful in every facet of the game against the Arizona Cardinals. Tennessee has dealt with a plethora of injuries to starters on both sides of the ball throughout training camp and the preseason, which resulted in very little practice time as a cohesive starting unit. The offense is still trying to build chemistry with new pieces that have not been on the field much together. The defensive side of the ball appears to be a concern once again for the Titans. Tennessee is going to have a difficult time avoiding an 0-2 start when they travel to take on Seattle this weekend.
Chargers (vs. Cowboys)
To the Cowboys’ credit last week, they had an excellent game plan against the Buccaneers. Dallas completely neutralized Tampa Bay’s menacing defensive line by designing a wide variety of quick throws. Dallas abused Tampa Bay’s weakest member of their secondary, Sean Murphy-Bunting, until he left the game with an injury. Still, Dallas failed to execute defensively on “(player-popup #tom-brady)Tom Brady”:/players/tom-brady-11604’s game-winning drive, and it remains to be seen if this “potential,” that pundits keep talking about in Dallas, will ever actually manifest on the field, or if this will continue to simply be a roster with a lot of big names, but not a lot of wins. Justin Herbert did a fantastic job in Week 1 of squeaking out a victory against a very strong Washington defense. Expect a much better performance from Herbert in Week 2 against a beatable Dallas secondary, and for the Chargers to walk away with a victory.
NFL Week 2 Pick’em Pool Picks Against The Spread
By Matt Schmitto
Yikes. It was one of the worst opening weeks for public bettors in recent history, and I, finding myself on chalk plays like the Packers and Chiefs, was one of the many casualties. We had some bad luck with Ryan Pitzpatrick exiting early against the Chargers, and I galaxy-brained myself taking a stale -7.5 line on Thursday Night Football even though I liked the Cowboys against the spread to begin the week. Regardless, I have to be sharper.
Using data and lines from DraftKings $4M Pro Football Millionaire Pick’em, we see that underdogs went 11-7 ATS and three of the five most popular picks —Patriots -2.5 (40%), Washington +0.5 (37%), 49ers -7.5 (29%), Broncos -2.5 (28.5%), Packers -3.5 (26%) — failed to cover. Only 33 of the 1,870 entries went a perfect 5-0.
Here’s what I have on my radar this week.
Saints at Panthers +3.5
Current Consensus Line: Panthers +3.5
I expect bettors to overreact to the Saints’ dominant performance over Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. In fact, that’s what we’re seeing at sportsbooks with 61% of bets backing the Saints as of Thursday morning, according to ScoresAndOdds. Pick’em pool contestants will probably behave similarly. Meanwhile, I don’t know if the Panthers are getting enough credit. They didn’t cover the spread against the Jets, but they won more comfortably than the score suggests. I’m a believer in Joe Brady and Sam Darnold, who are surrounded with a bevy of talented playmakers, both in the backfield and out wide. Additionally, the Panthers defense has improved. It’s not elite by any measure but it should suffice if and when the offense finds its groove.
PICK: Panthers +3.5
Bills at Dolphins +3.5
Current Consensus Line: Dolphins +3.5
The Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen entered the season as one of the most hyped teams in the NFL. On the back of Allen’s competitive MVP campaign, the Bills won not one but two playoff games — two more than the previous 20 years combined! Maybe the hype was justified but I stand skeptical. Might last season be an outlier? It sure looked that way as the Bills lost their home opener to the Pittsburgh Steelers 16-23. The Miami Dolphins are well coached, and second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will benefit from the return of wide receiver Will Fuller, who will keep a susceptible Bills secondary on their heels, and eventually smothered in dust, during this Week 2 game.
PICK: Dolphins +3.5
Cowboys vs. Chargers -2.5
Current Consensus Line: Chargers -3.5
I’m a believer in quarterback Dak Prescott, offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the rest of this Cowboys offense (aside from Ezekiel Elliott, but that’s a story for another time). I don’t, however, have any faith in the Cowboys defense. The Cowboys return Zack Martin to the offensive line but lose La’el Collins, who has been suspended five games, and wide receiver Michael Gallup. Considering how well Prescott handled pressure against the Bucs, I’m still not overly concerned about either of their absences. The injury woes are worse on the defensive side of the ball, the one place they can’t afford to lose guys like DeMarcus Lawrence (fractured foot) and Randy Gregory (COVID). Prescott and Justin Herbert didn’t play in the Big 12 but they’re about to get a taste of what a Big 12 football game is like. All points, little to no defense. Chargers should be able to squeak out a three-point victory in this inter-conference shootout.
PICK: Chargers -2.5
Titans +5.5 at Seahawks
Current Consensus Line: Titans +5.5
Russ cooked in Indy, while Tannehill starved in Nashville. There’s no reason the Titans offense looked as bad as it did. The most plausible explanation is a combination of two things: an improved Cardinals defense and the lack of preseason reps for Tennessee’s starting offense. I like the Titans to bounce back against an unimpressive Seahawks defense in what should be a high-scoring affair on the west coast.
PICK: Titans +5.5
Ravens vs. Chiefs -3.5
Current Consensus Line: Chiefs -3.5
This will no doubt be one of the more popular Week 2 picks in pick’em pools but I’m sticking with it for a few reasons. Over the last decade, the Ravens have found defensive success by blitzing at one of the highest rates in the NFL. The one quarterback this philosophy hasn’t worked on? Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is 3-0 against the Ravens since taking over as the Chiefs’ franchise quarterback in 2018, leading the Chiefs to victories and acting as the Ravens’ kryptonite with an overwhelming pass attack. Just look at the numbers: In 2018, Mahomes threw for 377 yards and two touchdowns; in 2019, 374 yards and throwing two of three touchdowns in the face of blitzes; and last year in Baltimore, Mahomes torched the Ravens for 385 yards and four touchdowns. To make matters worse this week? The Ravens are without cornerback Marcus Peters, who they desperately missed against the Raiders. We saw how Derek Carr and Darren Waller exploited the Ravens secondary without complementary help from wide receivers. Now imagine what Mahomes and Kelce will do with Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman on the outside, the latter of whom’s best and third-best career performances (97 rec yards & 1 TD in 2019; 81 rec yards and 1 TD in 2020) both came against the Ravens.
PICK: Chiefs -3.5
Image Credit: Imagn