NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 2: Strategy, Safest Bets, and Upsets
The 2021 NFL season is in full-swing once again, which means that eliminator, survivor, and pick’em pools are on many people’s minds once again. This fall, we will be offering some advice and best practices for how to approach each of these formats.
There are quite a few heavy favorites on the board for Week 2, but let’s break down our best options for both NFL survivor and eliminator contests. For tips at the sportsbook, check out NFL Week 2 Best Bets.
NFL Week 2 Survivor Pool Picks and Strategy
Traditionally, survivor pools require participants to simply pick the winner of one NFL game straight up each week. The challenging part of eliminator tournaments is that you can only use a team once during the season. In 2021, this means that you will need to select 17 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season, so there will be weeks during which you will not be able to have an elite roster at your disposal.
Week 2 Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 1 Pick: Los Angeles Rams
In Week 1, we said that it makes sense to burn an elite team to start off the year with a victory. Given the fact that there are a few heavy favorites again for Week 2, we recommend burning another elite team—the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Despite blowing a sizable lead last Thursday night against the Dallas Cowboys and needing a last-second field goal to secure a victory, the Buccaneers are unquestionably one of the most talented teams in the league.
This Sunday, the Buccaneers get a home matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, who lost 32-6 at home to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1. There is a reason that Tampa Bay is a double-digit favorite in this game. The Buccaneers have a superior offensive and defensive line and should be able to dominate the trenches with ease for the entirety of the game. At the skill positions, such as wide receiver and cornerback, the disparity in talent is enormous. Carlton Davis was outstanding against the Cowboys and should once again be a force for the Buccaneers secondary.
Tampa Bay is a better team on both sides of the football in this matchup. They should win comfortably on Sunday afternoon.
Safest Bets
If playing in a survivor pool with no constraints on picking the same team multiple times throughout the course of the season, participants have far more options to consider on a weekly basis. In Week 2, the biggest favorites include the Cleveland Browns (-12.5), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11.5), and the Green Bay Packers (-11.5). Since 2003, teams favored by more than 11 points in the NFL are 270-35-1, which translates to an 89% win-percentage. Having established the strong likelihood that these three teams will win this week, it makes little sense to consider other games.
We discussed above why we like Tampa Bay to win easily in their Week 2 matchup against the Falcons, so let’s dig deeper into the matchup between the Houston Texans and the Browns. Through three quarters last Sunday, it appeared as though the Browns were on their way to making a huge statement win on the road in Arrowhead Stadium against the Kansas City Chiefs. A botched punt attempt and an inexcusable defensive breakdown on a long Tyreek Hill touchdown ended up costing Cleveland a victory. Still, despite turning the ball over three times in the second-half, the Browns had an opportunity to win the game on the final drive. Baker Mayfield looked incredibly sharp. Nick Chubb was outstanding outside of a costly fumble. Cleveland looks like they will be one of the best teams in the NFL this fall.
Houston performed well in their opening week win against the Jacksonville Jaguars, but this is still a team with more than a few holes on their roster. Tyrod Taylor completed 21 of 33 passes for 291 yards in Week 1, but he is likely to have a less stellar stat-line this week against a much better defense.
Cleveland is a strong option for eliminator and survivor pool participants to consider.
Watch Out for Packers in Survivor Pools
Each week, we will examine one team that is a heavy favorite and discuss why they could be a slightly more risky option than the other teams that people are considering in their survivor and eliminator pools. This week, that team is the Packers.
After an entire off-season of chaos, Green Bay was favored heading into their Week 1 matchup against the Jameis Winston-led New Orleans Saints. However, they scored only three points in one of the most embarrassing performances from that organization in recent memory. Aaron Rodgers completed only 15 of 28 passes for 133 yards, throwing for no touchdowns and two interceptions. Aaron Jones had only five carries for nine yards, which is concerning for two reasons—one being that he was inefficient with his opportunities, and the other reason being that the coaching staff completely panicked and stopped running the football after falling behind early. Randall Cobb did not look good, despite Rodgers’ insistence on bringing him back into the Green Bay locker room in the off-season. There are more than a few question marks with this group going forward, and it does not help that their star quarterback and the coaching staff seem to be trading passive aggressive attacks on one another in their post-game press conferences. There are better options to consider in Week 2.
DraftKings & Circa Survivor Pools Recap
By Matt Schmitto
In a week where underdogs went 9-7 straight up, marking the first time underdogs finished with a winning Week 1 record since 1980, 22,14 of 2,642 entries (83.8%) survived DraftKings’ $1M Pro Football Millionaire Survivor
At Circa Sportsbook in Las Vegas, 3,397 for 4,080 entries (83.2%) advanced to Week 2.
Another 11.25% of DraftKings contestants would have been knocked out had Tom Brady not led the Buccaneers to a game-winning field goal on Thursday.
The Rams were by far the most popular pick in each contest, with 30.4% of DraftKings entries picking them in Week 1. San Francisco was the second-most popular pick at 28.29%, followed by the Bucs, then the Panthers at 10.90%. All other teams were picked by less than 2% of the field except for the Bills, who came in at 3.11%, accounting for the majority of eliminated entries.
Image Credit: Imagn