NFL Pick'em Pool Picks Week 5: Straight Up & Against the Spread
After going 10-6 in both Week 1 and Week 2, we delivered a 15-1 Week 3 performance. Last week, we regressed slightly due to some late-week injuries and a few very surprising upsets, but still finished a positive 9-7. We look to stay hot as we reveal our Week 5 NFL Pick’em selections!
There are multiple formats for pick’em tournaments, including the picking against the spread and ranking selections in confidence intervals. In this column, we will touch on both the classic style and picking against the spread each week.
I will start by ranking each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks, then Matt Schmitto will break down his top five picks against the spread. Also, don’t miss my Week 5 Survivor Guide if you’re still alive in your eliminator pools!
NFL Week 5 Pick’em Pool Picks: Tips, Strategy
Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
Week 5 Selections
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. New England Patriots
4. Minnesota Vikings
5. Los Angeles Rams
6. Green Bay Packers
7. Arizona Cardinals
8. New Orleans Saints
9. Buffalo Bills
10. Baltimore Ravens
11. Cleveland Browns
12. Las Vegas Raiders
13. Pittsburgh Steelers
14. Tennessee Titans
15. Atlanta Falcons
16. Carolina Panthers
Buccaneers (vs. Dolphins)
It is hard to imagine Jacoby Brissett, who put up zero points against the Bills and only 17 points against the Indianapolis Colts, doing enough to keep pace with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers this Sunday. Tampa Bay only scored 19 points on Sunday Night Football in Foxborough, but brutal weather conditions and high emotional intensity unquestionably played a role in the tightly-contested affair. Expect Brady and the Buccaneers to win this one with ease.
Cowboys (vs. Giants)
Our second-highest confidence pick of Week 4 was on the Saints against the Cowboys, so perhaps it is a bad omen to once again go against the Giants in this spot. Yet, Dallas is the far superior team in this contest. Through four weeks, the Cowboys’ only loss is to the defending Super Bowl Champions on the road to begin the season. Dallas has proven that they are capable of beating up on weaker teams in their division, evident by a 41-21 slaughtering of the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3. Dak Prescott and company should roll in this one.
Patriots (vs. Texans)
New England is far from an elite team. They have a rookie signal caller, inconsistent play on the defensive side of the ball, and more than a few injuries that they are dealing with down the roster. However, this group has already established that they can take care of business in matchups that they are expected to win. In Week 2, the Patriots embarrassed rookie quarterback Zach Wilson in a 25-6 New England victory. Davis Mills is unlikely to have much fun this week against Bill Belichick, only seven days removed from getting shutout against the Bills.
Vikings (vs. Lions)
It is unusual to see a team with a losing record be favored by nearly 10 points, but that is the case this weekend with Minnesota. The Vikings lost in overtime in Week 1, lost on a last second missed field goal in Week 2, and had a chance to win the game on their final drive against the Browns in Week 4. They easily handled the Seattle Seahawks in Week 3. Jared Goff and the winless Detroit Lions could be without arguably their best pass-catcher, T.J. Hockenson, and their best offensive lineman, Penei Sewell this Sunday. Michael Brockers, Trey Flowers, D’Andre Swift, and Jamaal Williams were also limited practice participants on Thursday. The Vikings should be able to emerge victorious here.
Rams (vs. Seahawks)
Last week against the Cardinals, the Rams looked shockingly beatable. Matthew Stafford misses a number of open receivers, and the defensive line rarely was able to make Kyler Murray uncomfortable. However, Los Angeles is still one of the most talented teams in the NFL. They have some exploitable members of the secondary, but the Rams have an offense that can usually go toe-to-toe with anyone, even when their defense plays poorly. It is not often that opponents will catch the Rams having a bad day on both sides of the ball. Expect Los Angeles to get back in the win column on Thursday.
Packers (vs. Bengals)
How long is the market going to punish the Packers for their embarrassing 38-3 Week 1 loss to the Saints. Since that point, Green Bay has beaten the Detroit Lions, the San Francisco 49ers, and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Aaron Rodgers has looked as good as ever. The Cincinnati Bengals trailed 14-0 at halftime of their game last week against the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars. Cincinnati obviously has the rest advantage in this matchup, but Joe Burrow and company have not earned the right to be only a field goal underdog against one of the better teams in the league.
Schmitto’s NFL Week 5 Picks Against The Spread
*Week 5 Lines are from DraftKings Pick’em Pool
Rams at Seahawks +2.5
Current Consensus Line: Seahawks +2
If you’ve been following my picks, you know I’m unfortunately behind the eight-ball in my pick’em pools. As a result, it’s time to pick some contrarian spots against the spread as I try to fight back. Week 5 kicks off with an opportunity to do just that on Thursday Night Football, as Russell Wilson and the Seahawks host Matt Stafford and the Rams. Lumen Field, home of the 12th man, is one of the most difficult NFL environments. Despite that, bettors are still overwhelmingly backing the Rams, as 73% of bets are behind the horns, per ScoresAndOdds.com. The Seahawks have struggled so far but Russell Wilson is still Russell Wilson and DK Metcalf is still DK Metcalf. I’ll fade the public and presumably majority of pick’em pools by picking the Seahawks as a home dog.
PICK: Seahawks +2.5
Eagles at Panthers -3.5
Current Consensus Line: Panthers -3.5
The Panthers stumbled in Dallas, but that’s no reason to sound the alarms. Despite a two-turnover deficit and missing star running back Christian McCaffrey, Carolina kept the game close against a team that some are now calling Super Bowl contenders. Meanwhile, the Eagles looked much better against the Chiefs than they did against the Cowboys. Though one must ask, who hasn’t managed to score points against Kansas City’s porous defense? The Eagles aren’t as fortunate this Sunday, as their injury-riddled offensive line will face one of the league’s most impressive defensive fronts. Missing three starters on defense, though, the Panthers aren’t without injury concerns of their own but I don’t expect that to keep them from reaching Jalen Hurts. Panthers by 7.
PICK: Panthers -3.5
Saints at Washington Football Team +2.5
Current Consensus Line: WFT +2.5
Though it might have been ugly, Washington picked up their second win of the season against the Atlanta Falcons. Now they host Jameis Winston and the New Orleans Saints, a perfect spot for a defense that has dramatically underperformed to finally get right. Additionally, this is another good opportunity to fade the public, with nearly 75% of bets on the Saints.
PICK: WFT +2.5
Titans vs. Jaguars +4.5
I already had my doubts about Urban Meyer in the NFL before the season started. Now, so it seems, he’s lost the Jaguars locker room. We’re getting a discount on the Titans -4.5 after they lost to the Jets while the Jaguars played the Bengals close in Cincinnati. AJ Brown is back at practice, there’s a chance Julio Jones returns, and, well, I’m a sucker for a nice discount.
Current Consensus Line: Titans -4.5
PICK: Titans -4.5
Browns at Chargers -1.5
Current Consensus Line: Chargers -2
The Chargers sit atop the AFC West and Justin Herbet has ascended into the MVP conversation while his coach, 38-year-old Brandon Staley, is now the favorite to win Coach of the Year. The Browns have the same 3-1 record as the Chargers but their offense has some issues. If you watched their 14-7 victory in Minnesota, Baker Mayfield did not look good. He missed multiple touchdown passes and was wildly inaccurate even if his errant throws didn’t end up in the defense’s hands. Win or lose, 15-for-33 and 155 yards is cause for concern. The offensive woes make more sense following Thursday’s revelation that Mayfield was playing with a partially torn labrum. The injury won’t require surgery and Mayfield has been a full participant in practice, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be 100% anytime soon. The Browns relied on the running game and hard-nosed defense against Kirk Cousins but they need more from Mayfield to keep up with Herbert, and unfortunately for Browns fans, he doesn’t appear to be up for the task.
PICK: Chargers -2
Image Credit: Imagn