Best Week 18 Player Prop Bets for NFL Saturday
What kind of performances can we expect on Saturday evening from Derrick Henry, Travis Kelce, and Joshua Dobbs? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down his three favorite NFL prop bets for NFL Saturday in Week 18
Week 18 of the NFL regular season will begin with a two-game slate on Saturday, featuring the Kansas City Chiefs against the Las Vegas Raiders in the afternoon time slot, followed by the Tennessee Titans against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the night cap. By this time in the year, and especially as kickoff approaches, much of the value on the saturated markets (sides, totals) has been stripped of its value. Instead of forcing action into efficient markets, bettors may be able to find better outcomes if they turn their attention to player props. Below, we offer three recommendations to consider adding to your Saturday card!
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Week 18 – NFL Saturday Player Props
- Derrick Henry u95.5 rushing yards
- Travis Kelce to score a touchdown
- Joshua Dobbs o17.5 pass completions
Derrick Henry u95.5 rushing yards (-125)
When these two teams met in Week 14, Derrick Henry totaled 121 rushing yards on 17 attempts. However, he had the benefit of having Ryan Tannehill on the field with him in that matchup, who threw for 254 passing yards and two touchdowns to open up the offense. Still, Henry had 50 of his 121 rushing yards on a single attempt, and was largely bottled up for the rest of the afternoon against a respectable Jacksonville Jaguars run defense. Since Week 9, the Jaguars defense ranks 6th in the NFL in rush EPA, making them one of the most difficult matchups that Henry could face in Week 18. Though the Tennessee Titans will unquestionably attempt to emphasize a rested Henry on the ground in this spot, it is doubtful that they will be able to get him to the century-mark against a tough run defense that will be able to stack the box against a quarterback without much ability to throw the ball down-the-field.
Travis Kelce to score a touchdown (-130)
The Las Vegas Raiders will feature the worst linebacker corps of any team in the NFL this weekend, with three undrafted players manning the middle of the field. Curtis Bolton, undrafted in 2019, has played only two defensive snaps this fall. Harvey Langi, undrafted in 2017, played his first defensive snaps of 2022 in Week 17, allowing five receptions on six targets in his vicinity. Luke Masterson, undrafted in 2022, ranks 81st out of 84 eligible linebackers this season in defense grade, per Pro Football Focus. Last weekend against the San Francisco 49ers, he allowed two catches on three targets in his direction. This unit is likely to have an extremely difficult time stopping the best tight end in the NFL on Saturday. Expect Kelce to find the end zone as Patrick Mahomes looks to further solidify his MVP case.
Joshua Dobbs o17.5 completions (-125)
Last Thursday, Joshua Dobbs completed 20-of-39 pass attempts against a Dallas Cowboys secondary unit that ranks in the top-10 in both opponent completion percentage and opponent yards-per-attempt through the air this fall. In Week 18, Dobbs will have an easier matchup against a Jacksonville Jaguars secondary unit that ranks 15th or worse in both of those metrics for the season. Since Week 9, Jacksonville’s secondary unit ranks 23rd in dropback EPA. Dobbs should find himself in a negative game script, which should have him throwing the ball frequently late in the game. He should find a way to hit the over in this spot.
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