NFL Betting Picks: Best Player Props for Week 1
Happy Saturday, Grinders. Football is back! After enduring a long stretch of time without any sports, football joins baseball, basketball, golf, well… nearly every sport to atone for the dismal stretch. With football back in the fold, online betting sites unraveled players props for savvy bettors who look to take advantage of less efficient lines. Today, we will peruse online sportsbooks for the best opportunities and the best prices.
Check out our Week 1 Lines and Betting Picks and some NFL betting tips before diving into all of the online sportsbooks. Here are my three favorite props for NFL Week 1.
NFL Betting Picks Week 1 — QB Player Prop for Packers at Vikings
Kirk Cousins Over/Under 250.5 Passing Yards (use our DraftKings to get these odds)
While Stefon Diggs looks to renew his career in Buffalo, the Minnesota Vikings look to establish the run at all costs in 2020. The Vikings finished second in Rush% (48.04%) last season and second in Rush% when leading by seven or more points (64.02%). Make no mistake Minnesota is going to run the football a lot — especially as a home favorite. At the time of this writing, the Vikings are 2.5-point favorites — sportsbooks project the Vikings to win a close game.
For that reason, Kirk Cousins will not be the focal point in a divisional matchup against the Green Bay Packers. In the two meetings with the Packers in 2019, Cousins compiled 230 and 122 yards. In those games, the Vikings were able to average nearly seven yards per attempt with greater than 26 rushing attempts per game. The formula is clear. Run the ball to gain a lead and then run the ball to preserve the lead. Kirk Cousins arm should be plenty rested for Week 2. I will take the under, here.
My Pick: Under 250.5 Passing Yards -112
NFL Betting Picks Week 1 — RB Player Prop for Cardinals at 49ers
Raheem Mostert Over/Under 49.5 Rushing Yards (use our PointsBet promo code to get these odds)
Raheem Mostert will possibly lead the San Francisco 49ers backfield on Sunday afternoon against the Arizona Cardinals. Coach Kyle Shanahan will leave the playing status of Mostert’s stablemate, Tevin Coleman, up to the back because of air quality issues in San Francisco and Coleman’s sickle cell trait. If Coleman is limited or does not go, Mostert will likely feature in a game where San Francisco is better than a touchdown favorite.
Mostert saw double-digit carries in the last five regular-season games and all three of the 49ers’ playoff appearances. Mostert was wildly efficient in those contests, cracking five yards per rushing attempt in nearly every game. If Mostert is able to start the season efficiently, 50 yards feels bankable given the cloudy status of the backfield situation.
My Pick: Over 49.5 Rushing Yards -115
NFL Betting Picks Week 1 — WR Player Prop for Jets at Eagles
Jamison Crowder Over/Under 58.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
Last season, Jamison Crowder converted 22 of his robust 27 targets against the Buffalo Bills. The Jets open the 2020 season with a thin wide receiver depth chart. Crowder will likely be sharing most of the target share with newcomer Breshad Perriman and is likely in line for another heaping pile of targets.
The Bills stalwart defense will likely make those receptions pretty inefficient from a yards per play sense but Crowder might be so heavily used that 58.5 receiving yards should not present much of a hurdle. Eight to nine yards per reception will give Crowder an easy path given his likely high reception total. Working inside the slot, Darnold will lean on Crowder as he did throughout 2019. Despite the opposing defense, I want the over with Crowder in Week 1.
My Pick: Over 58.5 Receiving Yards -112
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images