NFL PrizePicks Week 1 Predictions: Lawrence, Ekeler, & Cooper Highlight Top Plays
In this space, we’ll look at exciting offers on the PrizePicks board for Week 1 of the NFL season and try to make some predictions based on projections, trends, and the market.
PrizePicks, a DFS Pick’em site, lays out player projections for us to stack on a ticket for user-created entries. They prompt us with a statistical projection for a player, and we get to pick whether or not the player will get More or Less than the line offered. There are hundreds of players from whom to choose and we only have to make at least two picks to create a contest. If you haven’t tried it yet, use the PrizePicks referral code “GRINDERS” to get a deposit match up to $100.
For NFL Week 1, we will focus on player yards because usage is so messy to project this early in the season. Yardage, on the other hand, we can see where there are more inefficiencies in the market. We’ll look at three picks to stack for your entries. One for passing yards, one for rushing yards, and one for receiving yards.
O.K., I lied. First, we’re gonna mention the 500-lb. gorilla in the room. Dak Prescott has a passing yardage line of 0.5 at PrizePicks. We’re clicking MORE and adding that play to every contest we can.
PrizePicks Top Plays for NFL Week 1
- Trevor Lawrence MORE than 246.5 passing yards
- Austin Ekeler MORE than 51.5 rushing yards
- Amari Cooper MORE than 57.5 receiving yards
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Trevor Lawrence MORE/LESS Than 246.5 Passing Yards
Did you know that Trevor Lawrence was seventh in pass attempts and completions, finishing ninth in passing yards (4,113), in the 2022 NFL season? Do you remember that they won the NFC South and a playoff game? This is all relevant because Lawrence is only 23-years-old, seems to be getting better, had a decent team around him last year, and the offense just got better with the addition of Calvin Ridley.
The Colts should be terrible, but Vegas only has the Jags at -4.5, so there’s reason to believe that Lawrence gets a lot of volume in this one. In the dome. With a receiving corps of Christian Kirk, Travis Etienne, Evan Engram, and Zay Jones alongside Ridley, Lawrence can get some high efficiency and explosion for us.
246.5 yards is right around his 241.9 average in 2022. In a competitive game with a boosted arsenal, we should love the RotoGrinders projection of 261.24 passing yards for Lawrence.
PLAY: Lawrence MORE than 246.5 passing yards
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins
Austin Ekeler MORE/LESS Than 51.5 rushing yards
I’m a sucker for a running back favored at home with a high total. Austin Ekeler and the Chargers are -3.0 favorites in a game with a 50.5 over/under.
Ekeler is known much more for his receiving out of the backfield and red zone usage than his general rushing, but when we peel back a layer of the onion, something juicy arises.
Generally, Ekeler ran 12 times per game for 53.8 yards. But he ran 13.1 times for 66.4 yards per game in the Chargers’ ten wins. Here at RotoGrinders, we have him currently projected at 59.26 rushing yards and that looks about right, considering his role and the gamescript.
PLAY: Ekeler MORE than 51.5 rushing yards
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Amari Cooper More/Less Than 57.5 Receiving Yards
The over-under on this game is only 47.5, and I’m calling bull. Two talented QBs with diverse offenses in a virtual pick ‘em could easily turn into a shootout.
Deshaun Watson and Amari Cooper only played six games together, but Cooper had 61.5 yards per game over that stretch, including an aDOT over 9.0 in five of those games — 13.0, 17.8, and 15.3 in the last three games. Watson’s IAY/PA wasn’t noticeably high in 2022, but he was clearly looking for Cooper deep, and we know from history that he has a deep ball. Cooper is still clearly the best Browns WR, so we currently have him projected at 63.88 receiving yards.
This leads me to an honorable mention for Watson’s passing prop on PrizePicks. He’s only posted for 235.5 passing yards. We have him projected for 244.98. We can run a contest with a Watson-Cooper correlation stack and multiply our money on the same idea: that this game is a back-and-forth shootout.