NFL PrizePicks Week 17 Predictions: Olave, Purdy, Hopkins Top Plays
In this space, we’ll look at exciting offers on the PrizePicks board for Week 16 of the NFL season and try to make some predictions based on projections, trends, and the market.
PrizePicks, a DFS Pick’em site, lays out player projections for us to stack on a ticket for user-created entries. They prompt us with a statistical projection for a player, and we get to pick whether or not the player will get More or Less than the line offered. There are hundreds of players from whom to choose, and we only have to make at least two picks to create a contest. If you haven’t tried it yet, use the PrizePicks referral code “GRINDERS” to get a deposit match up to $100.
For NFL Week 17, we’ll look at the board and see what usage, game flow, Vegas, and — of course — our projections can tell us about how players are likely to produce. We’ll look at passing, rushing, and receiving categories most weeks.
PrizePicks Top Plays for NFL Week 17
- Chris Olave MORE than 66.5 receiving yards
- Brock Purdy MORE than 256.5 pass yards
- DeAndre Hopkins MORE than 54.5 receiving yards
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chris Olave MORE/LESS Than 66.5 Receiving Yards
The Bucs’ 264.1 passing YPG allowed is the most in the NFL. Chris Olave is the clear WR1 for the Saints and carries a 13.6 aDOT into this game. He’s seen double-digit targets in six of 14 games — eight or more in eight of his last nine. This isn’t just a deep threat. He’s a high-volume deep threat against a bad pass defense.
The Saints are slight dogs on the road, so the volume should be there in the air. We have him projected way over his 66.5 PrizePicks projection at 84.0 receiving yards. If he ends up getting a demon booster, we might wanna play that, too.
PLAY: Olave MORE than 66.5 receiving yards
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Commanders
Brock Purdy MORE/LESS Than 256.5 Pass Yards
The Commanders’ 261.6 passing YPG allowed is second-most in the NFL. George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Christian McCaffrey are all projected by us to break their PrizePicks Projections, but good luck guessing which one or two of them do so in actuality.
I prefer just going to the source. Brock Purdy doesn’t have the volume that gives us the warm fuzzies, but his efficiency is off the charts. 68.8% completion percentage, league-leading 9.7 yards per attempt, and an 8.2 intended air yards per pass attempt. 25 pass attempts could get us there, as this is a guy who had a six-game run of over 70% completion rates (nine of ten in the stretch).
His 263.1 RG projection feels conservative, but I’m assuming that Purdy’s efficiency kind of breaks the matrix. Like, how could a guy not popping 28 pass attempts smash a 256.5 projection? It’s a reasonable dispute. I’m banking on the 49ers compiling big plays through the air because they’re the 49ers.
PLAY: Purdy MORE than 256.5 pass yards
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
DeAndre Hopkins MORE/LESS Than 54.5 Receiving Yards
Will Levis isn’t good, so any projection for DeAndre Hopkins is volatile. But 54.5 receiving yards is just juicy enough to attack, given his 9, 12, and 12 targets in the three games preceding the four-target dud of Week 16. His catch rate is low because his quality of targets doesn’t match the quantity, but we’re seeing a career-high 15.1 aDOT from him, so he’s working.
His 71.5 RG projection might be a tad loose, so I might not be interested in a demon booster, should one pop up, but we should like the soft PrizePicks projection to just take the proposition.