NFL PrizePicks Week 3 Predictions: Lamar, Rachaad, & Ridley Highlight Top Plays
In this space, we’ll look at exciting offers on the PrizePicks board for Week 3 of the NFL season and try to make some predictions based on projections, trends, and the market.
PrizePicks, a DFS Pick’em site, lays out player projections for us to stack on a ticket for user-created entries. They prompt us with a statistical projection for a player, and we get to pick whether or not the player will get More or Less than the line offered. There are hundreds of players from whom to choose and we only have to make at least two picks to create a contest. If you haven’t tried it yet, use the PrizePicks referral code “GRINDERS” to get a deposit match up to $100.
For NFL Week 3, we will focus on player yards because usage is so messy to project this early in the season. Yardage, on the other hand, we can see where there are more inefficiencies in the market. We’ll look at three picks to stack for your entries. One for passing yards, one for rushing yards, and one for receiving yards. The quarterbacks are most out of sorts according to our projections, so we’ll touch on more than one who can be sprinkled around our contests. Running back is where we’ll get a little aggressive. Receiving yards is pretty straightforward.
PrizePicks Top Plays for NFL Week 3
- Lamar Jackson LESS than 220.5 passing yards
- Rachaad White MORE than 50.5 rushing yards
- Calvin Ridley MORE than 65.5 receiving yards
Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts
Lamar Jackson MORE/LESS Than 220.5 Passing Yards
Lamar Jackson has thrown for 172.2 yards per game in his ten wins since the start of the 2022 NFL season. Over that stretch, he’s thrown for 231.5 in their four losses. This is one of the most game script dependent QBs that we’ve seen.
The Ravens host the Colts and are 7.5-point favorites. I just don’t see how Lamar throws for the volume that his 7.3 IAY / PA requires for him to get to 221 passing yards.
All of that said, beware. Our projections currently have him in the ~225 range, so this is an aggressive low-volume play, but one that totally makes sense.
If you hate me for this play, I don’t blame you. I have thick skin. As an olive branch: My next-favorite passing yards play is Trevor Lawrence MORE than 244.5 passing yards, hosting the Texans in what should be a beat down. It’s also directly correlated with Calvin Ridley, whom we’ll discuss soon.
PLAY: Lamar Jackson LESS than 220.5 passing yards
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Rachaad White MORE / LESS Than 50.5 Rushing Yards
Rachaad White has only run for 3.3 yard per carry over 34 rushes to start the season, but he’s had 17 carries in each of the first two games, playing 75.54% of the team’s snaps.
This is huge.
The negative game script isn’t great for the Tampa rushing game, but they’re trying to run a balanced offense, so the Eagles’ nickel defense (due to a lack of linebackers) is something we should plan on Tampa to try to exploit deep into the game.
We currently have White projected for ~64 rushing yards.
If you wanna make a low-volume aggressive play, the Dolphins passing game prompts are reasonably high. Raheem Mostert is at MORE / LESS than 60.5 rushing yards, which seems too high. The game script should be good for the Dolphins rushing attack, but who’s running the ball? I prefer our ~48-yard projection for Mostert, so we can play Mostert LESS than 60.5 rushing yards.
PLAY: Rachaad White MORE than 50.5 yards.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans
Calvin Ridley MORE / LESS Than 65.5 Receiving Yards
I want some of this Jaguars offense every week. Especially while we keep getting these discounts. The most egregious discount is Calvin Riley at MORE / LESS than 65.5 receiving yards.
The Jags are 9.5-point favorites over the lowly Texans, but they have an implied total of 26.5. Travis Etienne is really good, but he’s not single-handedly getting all of those points. The passing game should feast, and it’s why we have Ridley projected at roughly ~83 receiving yards.
Week 2 sucked for the Jags, but Ridley still followed up his 11 Week 1 targets with eight in Week 2. He has 157.7 air yards through the first two games and that might be around his ceiling for Week 3 because the Texans are hopeless.
Watch out for the DK Metcalf (rib) news. If he isn’t gonna play, Tyler Lockett has a MORE / LESS than prompt of 55.5 receiving yards. Even if it moves, I doubt it would move enough. We already have him projected for ~67 receiving yards with Metcalf in.