NFL PrizePicks Week 6 Predictions: Lawrence & Henry Highlight Top Plays
In this space, we’ll look at exciting offers on the PrizePicks board for Week 6 of the NFL season and try to make some predictions based on projections, trends, and the market.
PrizePicks, a DFS Pick’em site, lays out player projections for us to stack on a ticket for user-created entries. They prompt us with a statistical projection for a player, and we get to pick whether or not the player will get More or Less than the line offered. There are hundreds of players from whom to choose, and we only have to make at least two picks to create a contest. If you haven’t tried it yet, use the PrizePicks referral code “GRINDERS” to get a deposit match up to $100.
For NFL Week 6, we’ll look at all of the prompts and see what usage, gameflow, Vegas, and — of course — our projections can tell us about how players are likely to produce. We’ll look at passing, rushing, and receiving prompts most weeks.
PrizePicks Top Plays for NFL Week 6
- C.J. Stroud MORE than 242.5 passing yards
- Trevor Lawrence MORE than 247.5 passing yards
- Derrick Henry MORE than 66.5 rushing yards
Houston Texans vs. New Orleans Saints
C.J. Stroud MORE/LESS than 242.5 passing yards
C.J. Stroud is averaging 292.2 passing yards per game on 37.2 attempts. He doesn’t run often, which is good for us; and he’s averaging 8.0 IAY/PA, which is great for us. The Saints are bottom-eight in the league in giving up an 8.7 aDOT, so Stroud should get his looks.
This total is low, but the Texans are slight dogs, and we’ve seen the Texans completely abandon the run in games to let Stroud sling it.
If you’re unfamiliar with Stroud from a football sense, the rookie has a 98.4 rating with no INTs. His completion percentage isn’t great, but his depth per attempt is such that anything over 60% is probably fine for him to compile the yardage for us. Our projections currently have Stroud at 277.63 passing yards.
PLAY: C.J. Stroud MORE than 242.5 passing yards
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
Trevor Lawrence MORE/LESS than 247.5 passing yards
Any time Jacksonville is implied over 24 points, I check out the MORE/LESS on Trevor Lawrence. And it’s habitually too low.
In Week 6, the Jaguars have a 25.5 implied total against a Colts defense that’s given up the fifth most passing yards per game (262.8). Lawrence is a skilled passer, averaging 251.6 passing yards per game this season with 254.6 air yards per game. The Jaguars only have 4.3 YAC per reception. With Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Travis Etienne, and company, we should expect some regression toward the mean in that department to push our MORE/LESS pick over the top.
We currently have Lawrence projected for 264.19 passing yards.
PLAY: Trevor Lawrence MORE than 247.5 passing yards
Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens
Derrick Henry MORE/LESS than 66.5 rushing yards
This is the monster pick of the week. Derrick Henry is deceptively in the spot to ball out. The Ravens are a really strong defense, sure, but it’s against really strong defenses that the Titans tend to lean heavily on Henry as their only hope.
The Titans are 4.0-point dogs at home, which is just close enough for Tennessee not to be forced to abandon the run.
We currently have Henry projected for a whopping 85.38 rushing yards. Massive in relation to the number we’re getting on him. The Titans are only expected to score 17, and Henry can still have a 25/90/2 line.