NFL Week 1 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy
The 2021 NFL season begins tonight in Tampa Bay, which means that eliminator, survivor, and pick’em pools are on many people’s minds once again. This fall, we will be offering some advice and best practices for how to approach each of these formats.
We’ve already taken a look at pick’em strategy this week, now let’s break down our best NFL Week 1 picks for NFL survivor contests.
NFL Week 1 Survivor Picks, Strategy
Traditionally, eliminator/survivor pools require participants to simply pick the winner of one NFL game straight up each week. The challenging part of eliminator tournaments is that you can only use a team once during the season. In 2021, this means that you will need to select 17 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season, so there will be weeks during which you will not be able to have an elite roster at your disposal.
Opening Week Survivor Pick: Los Angeles Rams
In Week 1, it makes sense to burn an elite team to start off the year with a victory. The Los Angeles Rams are unquestionably the safest bet of the week to win straight up. Matthew Stafford is a tremendous upgrade at the quarterback position for the Rams, and his down-the-field passing ability makes him a perfect fit for Head Coach Sean McVay’s offense. Stafford should have plenty of opportunities to exploit a weak Chicago Bears’ secondary on Sunday Night Football in his first regular season action with his new team.
The Rams defense should also shine in Week 1 against Andy Dalton—an unimpressive signal caller, who is simply a placeholder under center for the Bears until the front office and coaching staff feel more comfortable with first round draft selection Justin Fields. In 2020, Los Angeles had the best defense in the entire league, allowing less than 300 total yards per game. They should be able to make life very difficult for the Chicago offense in this one.
Los Angeles is a better team on both sides of the football in this matchup. They should win comfortably in their first game of the 2021 season.
If playing in a survivor pool with no constraints on picking the same team multiple times throughout the course of the season, participants have far more options to consider on a weekly basis. In Week 1, the biggest favorites include the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5), San Francisco 49ers (-7.5), Los Angeles Rams (-7.5), and the Buffalo Bills (-6.5).
The Buccaneers open the 2021 campaign with a marquee Thursday Night Football matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. While Dallas still has plenty of big names on their roster—Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and more—they are an underwhelming team. Last year, Head Coach Mike McCarthy failed to win the worst division in football with this group after Prescott was hurt in Week 4. Elliott looks like a running back on the back-end of his career. The wide receiver group has elite potential, but has not delivered elite production as of yet. Dallas will also be without their best offensive lineman, Zach Martin in this game as well. Tampa Bay should win with ease.
Trap Pick: San Francisco 49ers
If there is one big favorite on upset alert this week, it could be the 49ers. Jared Goff is not the most talented quarterback in the NFL, but he is a proven winner and has shown himself capable of managing games well, if nothing else. Goff has a far less talented roster around him in Detroit than he did in Los Angeles, but this is a team rostering quite a few players with hurt feelings after being dismissed by their former employers via trade or being cut during the off-season. San Francisco has their own quarterback dilemma that they are dealing with and might not be in a great state of mind entering Week 1. There could also be a rust factor from some players that missed significant time due to injury last fall. On top of all of that, the 49ers are playing on the road in a time zone three hours ahead of their home stadium. There are better options than the 49ers in Week 1, whether you are in an eliminator or traditional survivor tournament.
We discussed the Rams above, and feel extremely confident in their ability to defeat the Bears in their season opener.
The Bills nearly made it to the Super Bowl in 2020 and appear poised to make another deep postseason run in 2021. Whereas Buffalo is still ascending, it seems as though we have seen the best out of Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers. After starting 11-0 last year, it might be hard to imagine Pittsburgh failing to make the playoffs this fall, but that is a legitimate possibility. In Week 1, Pittsburgh could be without arguably their most impactful player, T.J. Watt as well. The Buccaneers and the Rams are likely safer options, but Buffalo should deliver a winner as well if you choose to go with an AFC team.
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