NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 5: Strategy, Safest Bets, and Upsets
The NFL season is in full swing, and hopefully we’ve helped you survive in your eliminator pools up to this point. We’ve already looked at Week 5 odds, now let’s break down our best NFL survivor picks.
NFL Week 5 Survivor Picks, Strategy
Traditionally, survivor pools require participants to simply pick the winner of one NFL game straight up each week. The challenging part of eliminator tournaments is that you can only use a team once during the season. In 2021, this means that you will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season, so there will be weeks during which you will not be able to have an elite roster at your disposal.
In Week 1, we said that it made sense to burn an elite team, the Los Angeles Rams, to start off the year with a victory. We successfully burned another elite team in Week 2—the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In Week 3, we used a less notable team—the Denver Broncos in an extremely favorable matchup at home against a rookie quarterback. In Week 4, we took advantage of another team with a favorable matchup, the Buffalo Bills at home against an inexperienced signal caller. In Week 5, we are looking at our first semi-risky play of the year, the Dallas Cowboys
Week 5 Survivor Pick: Dallas Cowboys
Last week in this article, we outlined red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid five contexts when considering options for a survivor league:
1. Intra-division games
2. Prime Time games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
In Week 5, each of the biggest favorites that we have remaining to use — the Minnesota Vikings (-9.5), New England Patriots (-8.5), Dallas Cowboys (-7) and the Baltimore Ravens (-7) — have at least one red flag. Let’s take a closer look at each contest.
Vikings (vs. Lions)
Minnesota has an intra-division matchup on tap for Week 5 against the winless Detroit Lions. After opening the campaign with only one win in four contests, it is somewhat surprising to see the Vikings as such heavy favorites. Yet, a Detroit injury report listing T.J. Hockenson and Penei Sewell as non-participants should be enough to warrant confidence in the Vikings in this one. Jared Goff could be missing arguably his most talented pass-catcher and the best member of his offensive line. Although Minnesota enters play with a losing record, they are yet to lose a game by more than one score. At minimum, they should give themselves an opportunity to win this one in the fourth quarter.
Patriots (vs. Texans)
The Patriots are not technically playing on a short week, and they do not technically have a poor defense, but they have yet to establish themselves as a trustworthy option for bettors in survivor pools. In Week 1, a late fumble resulted in a devastating 17-16 loss to the Miami Dolphins. They easily handled rookie Zach Wilson in Week 2, but looked utterly overmatched against a New Orleans Saints team in Week 3 that lost to the New York Giants in their subsequent game. After playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers tough on Sunday Night Football, the market may be overweighting the strength of this football team—even against the Houston Texans, who appear to be unquestionably the worst team in the NFL. New England should win this game, but there is more risk here than the spread indicates.
Cowboys (vs. Giants)
The Cowboys enter play on a three game winning streak with their sole loss coming to the defending Super Bowl Champions on the road to open the season. They’ve defeated two teams that look like postseason contenders—the Los Angeles Chargers and the Carolina Panthers. Dallas easily handled their other opponent, the Philadelphia Eagles, with ease on Monday Night Football. The Cowboys have the better quarterback, the better offense, and the better defense in this contest. If not for a shocking come-from-behind win against the Saints last Sunday, the Giants would likely be heavier underdogs in this game. Dallas has shown that they can beat up on teams inside their own division in 2021. They are a relatively safe option this Sunday.
Safest Pick
If playing in a survivor pool with no constraints on picking the same team multiple times throughout the course of the season, participants have far more options to consider on a weekly basis. In Week 5, the safest option by far, for those who are still able to use them, is the Buccaneers (-10).
The Dolphins have been atrocious this fall. If not for New England beating themselves in Week 1, Miami would still be in search of their first win of the season. They were shutout 35-0 by the Bills in Week 2, and have not impressed anyone either of the last two weeks either. Tampa Bay is still firing on all cylinders offensively. The difficult weather conditions and the high emotional intensity of playing in Foxborough undoubtedly contributed to a close final score in Week 4. However, this is still one of the most talented rosters in the NFL. In a Week 5 home matchup, this is the time to use the Buccaneers if you have not already.
Upset Watch
Each week, we will examine one team that is a heavy favorite and discuss why they could be a slightly more risky option than the other teams that people are considering in their survivor and eliminator pools. In Week 4, we identified the eight-point favorite Baltimore Ravens as being on upset alert. It took a 4th and 19 conversion on the final drive and an NFL record 66-yard field goal as time expired for them to avoid a loss to the underdog Detroit Lions. Last week, we said to beware of the Cincinnati Bengals, who trailed 14-0 at halftime and only barely squeaked out a 24-21 victory on Thursday Night Football. Stay away from these stressful situations when you can help it.
Ravens (vs. Colts)
The market is once again bullish on the Ravens, but is it prudent? Baltimore collapsed in Week 1 to the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football, but have won three games in a row since that point—defeating the Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, and Denver Broncos. Kansas City has experienced an incredibly rocky start to the year. Baltimore needed a 4th and 19 conversion and an NFL record setting 66-yard field goal to beat the Lions. Then, the Ravens took care of business on the road against a Denver team that was dealing with a wide assortment of injuries, which included losing their starting quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater, in the middle of the game. Baltimore is rightfully favored in this game, but they are likely not as good as many pundits are proclaiming. On prime time television, they are not a lock to defeat the Indianapolis Colts, who have played each of their last three opponents very tough.
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