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NFL Week 5 Odds and Predictions: Betting Picks for Every Game

by Sloan Piva (SloanPiva) Last Updated 2021-10-07 17:16:21

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It’s time to look at NFL Week 5 odds and betting tips! Luckily Sloan Piva has you covered with picks for every game, starting with Thursday Night Football. As always, make sure to kick things off with our favorite sportsbook offers found below!

The NFL season continues to fly by, with four weeks now in the books. Only one undefeated team remains, the AFC East has become the new NFC East, and the AFC North has returned to glory (except for Pittsburgh). The undefeated Cardinals supplanted the undefeated Rams, whom we thought was the best team in football, and the Chargers beat the 4-0 Raiders on Monday Night Football to seize control of the AFC West. The Patriots nearly upset the Buccaneers in Tom Brady’s return to Foxboro, and injuries pushed Trey Lance and Drew Lock up the depth chart and under center. Let’s go!

Week 4 proved to be another whirlwind of a ride for bettors, but our early favorites seem to be doing progressively better. We hit on three of our top bets (listed at the top of the 1:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. games), and went four-for-four in the 4:00 p.m. slate. We also nailed both the spread and the over/under on three of the four games in which we picked both.

Full speed ahead to Week 5, as the early bird quite often gets the worm. You know the drill by now: each Tuesday morning, I provide you with my favorite bets for every single game of the upcoming NFL week. Of course, I give you my favorite wager for each primetime game—but I also list my best bets of the 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. Sunday slates, in order by confidence level.

So, don’t smash-play an OVER just because it’s listed on here—if it’s toward the bottom of the list, it might be a little more volatile than it’s worth. But if it’s listed toward the top, it’s something I would bet with my money and not just yours. We’re in this together, RotoGrinders Nation. Let’s go make some more money, and have as much fun as Tom Brady passing Drew Brees for most career passing yards in an away game at Gillette Stadium.

NFL Week 5 Odds

NFL Week 5 Picks

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks +2, O/U 54.5

My LA friends had never been as confident as they were after Week 3, when their Rams beat the reigning-champion Buccaneers at SoFi Stadium. The Rams are going undefeated, one friend told my fantasy football group. The Rams are the best team in football, many of us said.

Insert the ‘needle scratch stop’ sound effect here, because early MVP favorite Kyler Murray and the Cardinals hung 465 yards on LA over the weekend, and dismantled the Rams 37-20 at SoFi. But I still don’t think the loss runs Matthew Stafford and his new squad completely off course. The LA defense had a rare off day in which Murray was fantastic, and Stafford failed to get his offense in a competitive rhythm. This win was a statement game for the Cards more so than a newsworthy loss for the Rams. Arizona had dropped eight consecutive games to their division rival, so Murray took it upon himself to break that negative streak. At one point, Kliff Kingsbury’s Cards marched 94 yards on 11 straight running plays.

That kind of beating won’t happen to Aaron Donald and the Rams very often, and it won’t happen with an older Russell Wilson and Chris Carson this week. Seattle’s D will also struggle to find the consistency Arizona found last week—the Seahawks have improved from their abysmal 2020 defensively, but they still have a plethora of holes. It’ll be even more trouble if d-lineman Carlos Dunlap can’t suit up after a short week with both a sprained toe and turf toe (that’s a serious toe-jam). Through three games, Seattle has given up 84 points on 1,442 yards (947 passing)—which averages out to 28 points, 480.6 yards, and 315.6 passing yards per game.

PICK: Rams -2, OVER 54.5

NFL Week 5 Betting Picks, 1 p.m

Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals +3.5, O/U 49.5

Some of you probably already caught my pick for this one, as it’s listed as my favorite bet of the week in RotoGrinders’ panel feature of expert early picks. As I mentioned, Cincy has looked very
shaky offensively despite its 3-1 record, with Joe Burrow clearly not at 100 percent still from his
2020 ACL tear. Last Thursday, the Bengals struggled at times with the otherwise-hapless
Jaguars, trailing at the half and narrowly eking out a three-point win. Meanwhile, the Packers
have looked great since their awful Week 1 showing against New Orleans. Green Bay has won
three straight games, including a comeback win against a tough defense in San Fran and a
piece-of-cake game against the Steelers. If Burrow can barely outlast Trevor Lawrence and
Jacksonville’s weak receiving corps, I think he’ll have a really difficult time keeping up with
Aaron Rodgers and company in the middle of a hot streak. If Cincy’s second-year wideout Tee Higgins (shoulder) suits up, I would probably buy a half-point to make it Packers -3, but
otherwise I’m fine with the -3.5. The Pack might not lose again until October 28 in Arizona.

PICK: Packers -3.5

New England Patriots at Houston Texans +9.5, O/U 40

The Patriots held their own in the Tom Brady (sort of, kind of) Homecoming, with rookie Mac Jones putting his squad in position to secure the straight upset. But it was not meant to be, and neither was the OVER. Sportsbooks now have New England as close to double-digit favorites against the lowly Texans, and the over/under opened at an NFL season-low 39.5 total points. Don’t mess with a Belichick defense, the sportsbooks probably said. And definitely don’t mess with Belichick’s D against Houston. The Patriots lead the head-to-head series 10-3, and the UNDER has hit in all four of New England’s games so far this season. The confidence (and poise) of Jones continue to grow, as does his chemistry with the Pats’ receiving corps of Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor, and Kendrick Bourne. Hell, even Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith looked halfway-decent last week, after the tight-end tandem struggled mightily the first few weeks. Take the Pats by 10 points, and double-up with the under 40 if you’re bold and beautiful.

PICK: Patriots -9.5, OVER 40

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers -3.5, O/U 45

The Panthers defense remains one of the top surprises of the 2021 NFL season, but they came back to Earth a bit when they surrendered 36 points in a loss to the Cowboys in Arlington. Back at home, I have the Panthers, behind emerging (Pro Bowl candidate?) QB Sam Darnold, beating the young Eagles but failing to cover the spread. But my favorite bet in this game is the OVER—Carolina has scored at least 24 points in its last three games, and the last two Eagles games have totaled 62 and 72 points, respectively. Philly’s offense is improving each week, while the Panthers defense seems destined for continued regression. That’s a good recipe for the over. Watch out for Carolina’s D.J. Moore, who might be launching himself into the conversation as a top three wideout in the NFL.

PICK: Eagles +3.5, OVER 45

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5, O/U 48.5

The Jaguars looked halfway-decent last Thursday against the Bengals—they led 14-0 at halftime—or maybe Cincy just looked asleep until the third frame. Urban Meyer’s boys proceeded to get shut out 14-0 in the third quarter, and lose the second half 24-7. Jacksonville has not won a game since Week 1 of the 2020 season, and now Meyer gets to deal with the court of public opinion after controversial photos and video surfaced of him with young coeds out and about at bars. Woof! As long as Tennessee has reigning two-time rushing champ Derrick Henry, I’m going with the road favorites here. If receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are cleared to play, it might be one of the bigger blowouts of the young season.

PICK: Titans -4.5

New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons -3.5, O/U 46

This matchup pits together two QBs—on opposite ends of the age spectrum—who struggled through three weeks but looked halfway-decent in Week 4. That’s kind of a scary game to bet. But if I must pick a winner, I’m going with the Dirty Birds under veteran and former MVP Matt Ryan. Matty Ice had 243 passing yards and two TDs last week, with a lot of help from veteran Swiss army knife Cordarrelle Patterson (101 all-purpose yards on 7 carries/6 catches). It’s only a matter of time before Pro Bowl wideout Calvin Ridley busts out, and we have barely seen the surface scratched on rookie tight end and No. 4 overall draft pick Kyle Pitts. Meanwhile, second overall pick, Zach Wilson, hopes to pick up where he left off in Week 4. Wilson demonstrated much more confidence against Tennessee, leading the Jets to a 27-24 overtime win. He threw for two scores and finished three yards shy of 300 on the day. But remember, Tennessee was missing top wide receivers A.J. Green and Julio Jones. If any of my money’s on this game, it’s on the ATL. I’d like it a lot more if it was -2.5, so maybe consider buying a point.

PICK: Falcons -3.5

Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5, O/U 40.5

Sportsbooks seem to be acknowledging Teddy Bridgewater’s concussion with the over/under, but not so much with the spread. Maybe it’s because Pittsburgh has been brutal offensively all season, averaging 16.8 points (28th), 301.8 yards of total offense (27th), and 55.2 rush yards per game. Still, Denver can’t win at Heinz Field with Drew Lock. The Broncos have averaged 20.8 points (21st) with Teddy B, so I’m betting against Denver if Lock’s starting. A guy with a 59 percent career completion percentage, 23 TDs and 19 interceptions might be just what the doctor ordered in Pittsburgh.

PICK: Steelers -1.5

New Orleans Saints at Washington Football Team +1.5, O/U 44.5

Another enticing OVER, here. The Saints defense started the season hot, but they’ve allowed 26 points to both the Panthers and Giants. And Washington was the fifth-best scoring defense in 2020, but the third-worst in 2021 (seriously, they allow 30.5 points per game after allowing 21.2 last season). Meanwhile, Jameis Winston and Tyler Heinicke have started gelling with their respective offenses. I’m going for the OVER if I’m going with anything in this game.

PICK: OVER 44.5

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings -7.5, O/U 49.5

Kirk Cousins and the Vikings laid an egg and fell to the Browns 14-7 last weekend, while Jared Goff and the Lions lost to Chicago 24-14. The common denominator in those defeats is not crappy offenses—it’s strong defensive opponents. Now that these squads get to go up against each other, we should see much more offense. Minnesota allows an average of 389 total yards of offense per game (25th), while Detroit surrenders 381.2 (21st). I don’t want any part of picking this spread, but I’d throw the OVER into a parlay.

PICK: OVER 49.5

Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10.5, O/U 48

You already know I hate large spreads, so I saved this 1 p.m. game for last because I want no part of it. Tampa just failed to cover against a New England team that lost 17-16 to these Dolphins (and 28-13 to the Saints). Were emotions playing too big of a part for Tom Brady in his old stadium? Can the GOAT suddenly not play in the elements? Well, it’s back down south for a Sunshine State battle this weekend, and who knows what Dolphins team we will see. It could be the team that almost beat the undefeated Raiders in overtime two weeks ago—or it could be the team that got rolled 35-0 by the Bills in Week 2. I’m saying “no, thanks” to every part of this game, just like my daughter says “no, thanks” to green beans.

PICK: OVER 48, “hold your nose” pick of the week

NFL Week 5 Picks, 4 p.m.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys -7, O/U 52

I’ll be keeping an eye on this line’s early movement, and pouncing the moment it moves even a half-point to -6.5. Dallas has been cooking with QB Dak Prescott healthy and very confident, and the Cowboys offense seems to crush opponents in a different manner each week. Ezekiel Elliott looks to once again be a top-three running back in the league, the tight end combo of Dallas Schultz and Blake Jarwin provides strength across the middle, and CeeDee Lamb appears to be one of the emerging superstar receivers of the NFL. The moment wideout Amari Cooper gets closer to 100 percent, watch out world. The Giants looked alive and kicking in an overtime win over the Saints Sunday, with Daniel Jones accruing over 400 passing yards and Saquon Barkley gashing New Orleans via the air and the ground. When your most talented wideout (Sterling Shepard) and your WR3 (Darius Slayton) are both inactive—and you still have four players amass 74 or more receiving yards against the Saints—you’re doing something right! I still don’t think New York can keep up with Jerry’s ‘boys in Arlington, though.

PICK: Cowboys -6.5 (buy a half-point if you need to), OVER 52

Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders -5.5, O/U 45.5

The Bears looked a little better under rookie QB Justin Fields in Week 4—and they got the W—but that’s honestly not saying much against Detroit. The start to Fields’ career remains very underwhelming—he has yet to find the end zone via the pass, and it appears Chicago coach Matt Nagy and OC Bill Lazor may be keeping the 22-year-old on a leash. That will be easier said than done if the Bears’ biggest offensive threat, running back David Montgomery, misses time with a hyperextended knee. The Raiders, meanwhile, come in looking to get back on track after the Chargers derailed their undefeated season at SoFi Stadium. I understand oddsmaker’s early reactions to the Monday Night meltdown Derek Carr and the Vegas offense endured, but I still expect this line to move further away from Chicago. Raiders coach Jon Gruden should be able to get his squad over its first L of the season, even if it was a big L (RIP Big L!).

PICK: Raiders -5.5

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals -6, O/U 50.5

Man, am I happy I bought a bunch of Kyler Murray autographed rookie cards the past couple seasons. This kid has been absolutely spectacular all season, playing like an MVP while leading the Cards to the last-remaining undefeated record in pro football. Looking at Arizona’s season stat page, it baffled me to realize that Murray has four different receivers on pace to log 1,000-yard campaigns (DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, Christian Kirk, and Rondale Moore). Coach Kliff Kingsbury and his massively-talented dual-threat QB have this entire franchise believing that it’s the best team in football, and who are we to doubt them at this point? When you beat the Rams at SoFi, you can make the league bow to you. Let’s see if they can beat a second-straight NFC West powerhouse this week. The Cardinals have been practically-untouchable in the heart of games—if you take out Arizona’s weird win over the Jaguars—in which JAX somehow pitched a 13-0 second quarter shutout—the Cards have otherwise outscored opponents 48-18 in the second frame of games. Still, if Jimmy G suits up for San Fran, I’ll take the Niners and the points. If exciting rookie Trey Lance starts for Garoppolo again, I’m more likely to bet the OVER. Trey vs. Kyler has a very good shot of reaching 70 points, never mind 51. It will be a frenetic ride, but oh man, will it be fun. Side note: Deebo Samuel is a friggin’ exciting player to watch.

PICK: 49ers +6 if Jimmy G starts; Cardinals -6 if Trey Lance starts; OVER 51 if Jimmy G’s out

Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers -1, O/U 49.5

Cleveland continues to show up and show out on defense and through its running game, while the Chargers have wins over the defending-AFC champion Chiefs and undefeated Raiders in back-to-back weeks. Reigning Rookie of the Year Justin Herbert looks as strong as ever, and so does dual-threat running back Austin Ekeler (props for the one-handed pullups on MNF, Ek). I like Herbert and his multitude of weapons at home more than I like Baker Mayfield and his island of misfit receivers on the road. This line seems destined for movement, so get in on the Bolts -1 while you can.

PICK: Chargers -1

Sunday Night Football Best Bet, Sunday 8:20 p.m.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs -2.5, O/U 56.5

Oddsmakers have finally caught on to the success of OVERs in primetime games, and now we seem destined to witness an unprecedented amount of 55-plus over/unders. This dose of modern reality brought to you by Centrum Silver, the best OTC multivitamin for the 55-plus community. But I digress. Kansas City appeared to be hitting the skids, losing to the Ravens and Chargers in back-to-back weeks, but then Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill went back to scorching the Earth, and they hung a 40-burger on the Eagles. Buffalo, meanwhile, has been the hottest team in the AFC since its ugly Week 1 loss in Pittsburgh. Some Bills-related stats from Week 2 through 4: 118 points scored, 21 points surrendered, 415 yards of offense per game. This one should be fun, kids, but it’s not fun to have to pick a winner (the real winners of this one, my boy, are fans of football!). I’m leaning toward Mahomes and company at Arrowhead, and you’ll have to put the OVER at 60 to scare me away.

PICK: Chiefs -2.5, OVER 56.5

Monday Night Football Best Bet, Monday 8:15

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens -7, O/U 47

The Ravens are 3-1, Lamar Jackson and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown are enjoying bounce-back campaigns, and Baltimore’s defense found the spark it was missing for large parts of 2020. Meanwhile, Indy continues to fight the injury bug—most notably affected at the offensive line of scrimmage. The 1-3 Colts might be the biggest disappointment in the AFC so far, and they’re going to get banged around by the Ravens unless they make a miraculous transformation. If you’re not boat-racing Jacoby Brissett and the Miami Dolphins, you’re not pulling off an upset win in Baltimore on Monday Night Football. Give me the Ravens and their litany of offensive talent.

PICK: Ravens -7, OVER 47

Image Credit: Imagn

About the Author

SloanPiva
Sloan Piva (SloanPiva)

Sloan Piva is a veteran of the sports journalism industry, and a freelance sports betting analyst. He received his master’s degree in Professional Writing from the University of Massachusetts, and currently resides in East Bay, Rhode Island with his wife and daughter. He covers the MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAA, and PGA, as well as anything related to fantasy sports and sports betting. Shoot him an email anytime at SloanPiva@gmail.com!