NFL Week 2 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy (2024)
NFL survivor pool expert Nick Galaida breaks down Week 2 NFL survivor picks and strategy, previewing his top play and top fade.
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NFL Week 2 Survivor Strategy and Picks
In traditional survivor pools, participants are required to select a winner of one NFL game straight-up each week. In eliminator tournaments, the rules are more challenging – allowing participants to use a team only one time throughout the course of the regular season. In 2024, this means that participants will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season. Consequently, there will be weeks when you will not be able to select an elite roster with a favorable matchup.
Each week in this RotoGrinders article, we will identify one trustworthy favorite and pick one 6+ point favorite that is on upset alert. Last year, our teams to trust went 9-0 SU and 9-0 ATS before the Cincinnati Bengals ended our season in Week 10. Our teams on upset alert were 3-6 ATS, with 3 of those teams losing outright as greater than a touchdown favorite. In Week 1, we told readers to beware of the Bengals, who lost outright 16-10 in front of their home fans as 8.5-point favorites.
Below, we have our list of red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when choosing your team:
1. Intra-division games
2. Primetime games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
Top Week 2 NFL Survivor Pick: Baltimore Ravens
Last week’s pick: Buffalo Bills (Result: Won 34-28 against the Arizona Cardinals)
The Baltimore Ravens didn’t look particularly sharp in their preseason opener, but they still out-gained the Chiefs by 99 yards, dominated the time of possession, and were literally inches away from having a chance for a game-winning 2-point conversion as time expired. All in all, that’s not a bad regular-season opener for a team that had multiple new starting offensive linemen, lost their defensive coordinator to a head coaching gig, and saw multiple key defenders depart in free agency. Oh, and Lamar Jackson didn’t even play in the preseason, so this was his first live action of the fall.
Despite the opening-week loss, there were some positive takeaways for Baltimore. Jackson, reportedly down 15 pounds from last year, ran for 122 yards and made his porous offensive line a near non-factor. Baltimore managed 20 points and 452 yards of offense, even though Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, and Derrick Henry were mostly held in check. Defensively, they held Kansas City to 3.6 yards per carry and had the 5th-best defensive success rate against the run of any team in Week 1. The market seems to think that all of these facts will help this group get back in the win column against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 2, pricing Baltimore as 9.5-point favorites on the spread.
The Raiders defense didn’t do much of anything to impress anyone in Week 1. Offensively, they managed only 10 points against a Chargers defense that ranked 23rd in success rate, 24th in EPA/play, and 26th in DVOA in 2023. Part of that was due to the fact that Gardner Minshew had the lowest aDOT of any starting quarterback in the NFL in Week 1. Part of their low point total can also be explained by their head coach p*nting on 4th & 1 from the Chargers’ 43-yard line midway through the 4th quarter – not exactly an analytically defensible decision.
Defensively, Las Vegas only allowed 22 points, but that isn’t a significant accomplishment, facing a Los Angeles team that has zero proven NFL playmakers. Even still, the Raiders finished Week 1 ranked only 10th in defensive success rate, 13th in EPA/play, and 22nd in pressure rate.
According to Clevta, home favorites of between 7-10 points have a 151-40-1 SU record (79.1% win rate) in the regular season since the beginning of 2018. The Ravens should be able to take care of business in this spot, with a few extra days of preparation only further helping their cause. This is a good spot to burn Baltimore, with them facing a bottom-10 quarterback and an offense that figures to struggle to generate explosive plays.
Week 2 Survivor Fade: Los Angeles Chargers
Last week’s Fade: Cincinnati Bengals (Result: Lost 16-10 against the New England Patriots)
Are we sure that the Los Angeles Chargers are a good football team? Are we really sure?
J.K. Dobbins had 135 rushing yards in the Chargers’ Week 1 victory, but 61 of those yards came on a single rush, and he was caught from behind by the defense multiple times. Justin Herbert had only 144 passing yards and ranked 20th out of 32 starting quarterbacks in aDOT. There is little doubt that Los Angeles has one of the least talented wide receiver rooms in the entire NFL.
Defensively, the Chargers benefited from the Raiders’ extremely conservative approach. Gardner Minshew had the lowest aDOT of any starting quarterback in Week 1, and head coach Antonio Pierce inexplicably decided to p*nt on 4th & 1 with his team on the Chargers’ 43-yard line midway through the 4th quarter, down 16-10. On the surface, Los Angeles appeared to do a good job getting pressure on the quarterback, but Minshew created some of those pressures himself by holding on to the ball too long.
The Carolina Panthers looked absolutely horrendous in their season opener, losing 47-10 against the New Orleans Saints. That being said, it would be hard for them, or anyone else, to play a worse game of football. The Panthers had 3 turnovers, went 1-for-10 on 3rd down, and had 80 yards worth of penalties – the latter of which was more than all but 4 teams in the NFL in Week 1.
Heading into Week 2, the Panthers will be without their star defensive tackle Derrick Brown, who has ranked top 7 at his position in PFF’s grading system each of the last two years. It’s undeniable that Brown is a significant loss, but this is still not a matchup in which the Panthers should be overwhelmed. Carolina is unlikely to be terrorized by the deep ball against the apparently low-aDOT Los Angeles offense. It’s worth noting that the Panthers allowed touchdowns of 59 yards, 16 yards, and 14 yards to the Saints. Carolina should also see some positive regression in terms of penalties and 3rd-down conversion rate. The Panthers went 1-for-10 on 3rd down in their season opener, but they weren’t far from the league average in 3rd down distance “to go.”
All of this is to say that we don’t know for certain if Jim Harbaugh has truly fixed the Chargers or if he simply had the benefit of playing an equally dysfunctional organization in Week 1. We also don’t know for sure that the Panthers are as bad as they showed in their season opener – frankly, it would be hard for any team to be that consistently underwhelming. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Carolina put together a better performance in Week 2, playing in front of their home fans against a less explosive offense. Survivor pool contestants should want to see more from the Chargers before trusting them with a do-or-die selection on the road.
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