NFL Week 4 Betting Lines and Picks
NFL Week 4 betting lines are moving fast at online sports betting sites as NFL bettors react to injury news, including the revelation that Tennessee Titans players have tested positive for COVID.
NFL Week 4’s prime-time slate won’t be as highly-anticipated as Week 3’s, but many teams are already playing to keep their playoff hopes alive while others look to remain undefeated. In fact, seven teams are still undefeated — the Bills, Bears, Seahawks, Packers, Chiefs, Steelers and Titans.
When it comes to NFL betting trends, home and away teams are .500 against the spread. There’s not much to look at there, though I still suspect that oddsmakers are weighing home-field advantage a little too much considering the current circumstances. On consecutive nights, we watched Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes travel to enemy territory and pick apart two of the league’s better defenses. As for point totals, there has been a clear advantage in betting on the Over. Heading into Week 4, the Over has hit a whopping 60.4% of the time. This, too, might have to do with limited capacity at NFL games, which plays into offenses’ hands. However, don’t bet on Overs blindly in hopes of the trend continuing; a quick glance at NFL Week 4 betting lines suggesst that NFL oddsmakers are adjusting for the uptick in points.
NFL Week 4 Betting Lines
Early NFL Week 4 Betting Picks
Denver Broncos at New York Jets +3, O/U 40
Is this the Trevor Lawrence bowl? John Elway likes Drew Lock a lot but right now it’s Jeff Driskel, Blake Bortles and Brett Rypien taking reps at quarterback. Brett who? If you aren’t a Boise State fan and if you didn’t watch him take over for Driskel during the Broncos’ 18-point loss to Tampa Bay then you, like me, probably have no idea who Rypien is. He went 8-for-9 and threw 1 INT during his short time on the field, but I’m taking Darnold against all three of those guys. If the Broncos lose on Sunday, and if Lock doesn’t come back soon, the Broncos could very well be in the hunt for Lawrence in the NFL Draft. We’ll have an in-depth preview of this Thursday Night Football matchup later this week.
NFL Pick: Jets +3
Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys -4.5, O/U
Baker Mayfield and “(player-popup #odell-beckham)Odell Beckham Jr won’t be in Cleveland but they will be in familiar territory in Week 4. For Mayfield, he’ll be back in his home state. And for Beckham, it’s a return to AT&T Stadium, a venue where the wide receiver had some of his best games as a New York Giant.
So far, if the Cowboys are in it, it’s primed to be a shootout. Riddled with injuries on defense, offenses have torched the Cowboys secondary through the first three weeks of the season. In fact, Cowboys’ defense has been so bad that Dak Prescott and the offense haven’t had the ball while playing with a lead. If it weren’t for an improbable come-from-behind victory against the Falcons, Mike McCarthy and the Dallas Cowboys would be sitting 0-3, tied for last in arguably the weakest division in the league.
As bad as the Cowboys defense has been, they haven’t been terrible against the run. That’s good because the Cowboys need their run defense to show up and slow down the two-headed monster made of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Kevin Stefanski, the Browns’ first-year head coach, loves to run the ball. His offense is running it 47.62% of the time, which is the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. However, Stefanski is no dummy. He’ll be willing to attack the Cowboys where they are weak, and I suspect he has some play-action plays lined up in Week 4 that will catch the Cowboys’ secondary off guard.
Right now bets are flooding in on the Cowboys — 88% of bets are backing Dallas -4.5, per ScoresAndOdds. This is a get-right spot for Mayfield and Beckham, who have yet to connect for a big game this season. I’ll take the points against a thin Cowboys roster.
NFL Pick: Browns +4.5
Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears +2.5, O/U 45
It appears that we’ve seen Mitch Trubisky throw his last pass as the Bears starter. Bears head coach Matt Nagy turned to Nick Foles after Trubisky threw a pick-six against the Atlanta Falcons. Foles subsequently ignited the offense for a remarkable comeback, leaving the Bears tied atop the NFC North with an undefeated 3-0 record. The Colts are 2-1 with Phillip Rivers behind center, and they’re 2.5-point road favorites as they travel to Soldier Field. I lean toward the Bears but I’m really not sure what to think of either of these teams. I’ll stick with the Under on this one.
NFL Pick: Under 45
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions +4, O/U 54
The Lions avenged a Week 1 tie that felt much more like a loss to the Cardinals in 2019. It was a necessary win after starting the season 0-2. A big factor for their success on Sunday was the return of wide receiver Kenny Golladay. Surprisingly, the Saints travel to the Motor City with an identical 1-2 record. Drew Brees looks like a shell of what he once was, especially without Michael Thomas. If Thomas isn’t back for their NFL Week 4 matchup, I’ll be bet on the Lions +4
NFL Pick: Lions +4
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers +3.5, O/U 52
The Cardinals are 2-1 and Kyler Murray looks like an MVP candidate. To remain in the NFL MVP conversation, the Cardinals need to grab a Week 4 win against the Panthers — other candidates like Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson, whose teams are currently undefeated, are playing too well for the Murray to drop a game. I think the Cardinals stay on track and beat the McCaffrey-less Panthers, but it won’t come easy. I’m not willing to lay the 3.5 points. Instead, I’ll be looking for a Mike Davis receptions prop.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals -3, O/U 47.5
The Bengals and Joe Burrow are still looking for their first win, and this NFL Week 4 betting line likes their odds to put a number in the win column. These teams might only combine for one win thus far but a QB matchup between Burrow and Minshew makes this game as intriguing as it can be. I’m not as sold on Burrow as others are. When in doubt, take the points?
NFL Pick: Jaguars +3
Minnesota Vikings vs. Houston Texans -3.5, O/U 54.5
On Tuesday, the Tennessee Titans had a handful of players and personnel test positive for COVID. Why are you talking about the Titans when we’re looking at NFL Week 4 lines for the Vikings and Texans? Well, it’s the Vikings who lost to the Titans on Sunday. My guess is the NFL takes appropriate measures and postpones this game. But with the Vikings temporarily shutting down team activity, it might not be a bad idea to lock in the Texans -3.5 just in case.
NFL Pick: Texans -3.5
Seattle Seahawks vs. Miami Dolphins +6.5, O/U 54
The Seahawks are 3-0 and Russell Wilson is playing some of the best football of his career. Wilson is arguably the favorite to win NFL MVP after throwing an NFL-record 14 touchdown passes through three games. There’s not much to say about the Dolphins other than that they managed to beat the Jaguars. Of all the NFL Week 4 betting lines, this one feels like a trap so big that it can’t actually trap anyone — eh, well, almost. I see the trap from a mile away yet I’m still walking into it.
NFL Pick: Seahawks -6.5
More NFL Week 4 betting previews and picks coming soon!
Check back for more in-depth NFL betting previews for Thursday Night Football, Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football later in the week.
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