NFL Week 5 Player Props: Bets for Prescott, Robinson, and Golladay
While Week 4 brought a small improvement with our three prop picks, going one for two is not going to help in our quest to beat the book. D.J. Moore provided a sweat-free winning ticket. Unfortunately, our other two picks left plenty to be desired. We will start with a review of last week and then make a few picks for this week. Unsurprisingly, the most buzzed about game this week will be the focus of our article. Let’s go!
I was very happy to see D.J. Moore convert on a long reception the first time the NFL Redzone cut to the Panthers’ game. Moore was targeted over and over again. Despite a losing effort, Moore landed us a pain-free 1.02 units.
On the other hand, Miles Sanders was not a factor at all. Splitting time and reps with his backfield battery mates, Sanders never threatened his rushing yardage prop. Unfortunately, the game eventually devolved into a Chiefs’ route — the chances Sanders would hit a rushing over were curbed by halftime.
Finally, after a really slow first quarter, Lamar Jackson looked to have an opportunity to go under his passing total. That was the first quarter… Soon after, Lamar was picking apart the Denver defense in a pretty thorough beatdown of the Broncos in their home building. Lamar sailed past his sub-200 yard passing prop… and we were left with a net loss.
Make sure to check out our game breakdowns in the sports betting section and some NFL betting tips prior to diving into this weekend’s action.
NFL Week 5 Player Props
Dak Prescott Over/Under 278.5 Passing Yards
So, if the cover image did not clue you in, we are all about the Cowboys and Giants on Sunday afternoon. Not including the Sunday night tilt between the Bills and Chiefs, the contest in Dallas leads the slate with a — at the time of this writing — 53-point implied total. The Dallas offense seems to be a well-oiled machine, scoring at will against a defense that can be scored upon.
While the Cowboys would love to feature their very capable two-head monster in Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard, everything runs through Dak Prescott. The Cowboys sit fourth in the league in points per game, fueled by a third-best 420+ yard per game offense. Prescott has been extremely efficient with a better-than 75% completion rate through the first four weeks. The Cowboys look pretty legit this year — as long as their star signal-caller remains healthy.
Despite a drastic improvement on the defensive side of the football last season, the G-Men sit in the bottom third in the league of passing yards allowed per game through four games. Projected to top this prop on RotoGrinders’ GridironIQ tool, I like Dak to cross the 300-yard mark. We will get back to this game but in the meantime, book the over at FanDuel.
PROP: 1.14u on Prescott Over 278.5 Yards (-114) at FanDuel
James Robinson Over/Under 58.5 Rushing Yards
A surprise inactive in the Jaguars’ Thursday night game against the Bengals, Carlos Hyde dealt with shoulder discomfort. The result? James Robinson was fed the football more to the tune of two rushing touchdowns and a yards per attempt average north of four yards. James Robinson is surely the feature back in Jacksonville.
Assuming Robinson continues to project for close to 20 rushing attempts, a 58.5 rushing yard prop seems pretty relatively beatable against the Titans’ defense. Fresh off of a disappointing — maybe embarrassing — loss to the New York Jets, the Titans continue to run an efficient offense that cannot overcome the woes of a dismal defense.
Surely, the Titans’ defense struggles more against the pass (8.0 yards per passing attempt) but the Jaguars will want to control the game for rookie Trevor Lawrence. After losing D.J. Chark, the Jaguars offense will flow through Laviska Shenault and James Robinson, the latter likely handling a strong workload in what should not be considered a very winnable game.
With Carlos Hyde uncertain for Sunday, I think jumping on the over is worth the risk at this number. If Hyde is declared out before Sunday, we should see movement upwards. Book the over now on PointsBet for the best current number.
PROP: 1.15u on Robinson Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at PointsBet
Kenny Golladay Over/Under 58.5 Receiving Yards
Back to the DFS game stack of the week, Kenny Golladay is last in the line of experience pass catchers for Daniel Jones against the Cowboys. The Giants are projected to play from behind on the road against a Dallas defend seeing the second-most pass attempts per game through four weeks (42.2). Daniel Jones is going to throw the football a lot and Kenny Golladay seems primed for a very heavy workload.
Without Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton, Golladay cashed in 6 of his 7 targets for 116 yards against the Falcons. While Kadarius Toney saw 9 Jones’ targets, the pair of receivers should share the bulk of the receiving workload for the G-Men on Sunday. This number is simply too low. I am grabbing the over without any reservations. The best price is at Caesar’s at the time of this writing.
PROP: 1.10u Golladay Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Caesar’s
Good luck this week! Share your prop picks with Joe on Twitter @JoeCistaro.
2021 NFL Player Props Record: 7 – 5
Net Winning: +1.31
Image Credit: Imagn