NFL Week 5 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy (2024)
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 5 NFL survivor pool strategy, previewing his favorite survivor picks of the week as well as teams to watch out for.
Week 5 NFL Survivor Revival
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NFL Week 5 Survivor Strategy and Picks
In traditional survivor pools, participants are required to select a winner of one NFL game straight-up each week. In eliminator tournaments, the rules are more challenging – allowing participants to use a team only one time throughout the course of the regular season. In 2024, this means that participants will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season. Consequently, there will be weeks when you will not be able to select an elite roster with a favorable matchup.
Unfortunately, in Week 2, I was one of the many casualties of Black Sunday. Baltimore led 16-6 midway through the 3rd quarter, but Lamar Jackson threw an interception, and the Ravens went 3 & out on their final two meaningful drives of the game, losing 26-23 as 9-point home favorites.
Still, we know that many readers, like me, participate in multiple survivor tournaments, so we will be keeping this article going forward for those fortunate enough to be alive in their pools. Each week, we will identify one trustworthy favorite and pick one 6+ point favorite that is on upset alert. Our teams to trust are 11-3 SU and 9-5 ATS since the beginning of 2023. Our teams on upset alert are 4-9 ATS in that same time period, with 4 of those teams losing outright as greater than a touchdown favorite.
If looking for any advice on games not mentioned in this article, don’t hesitate to reach out to @CommishFilmRoom or @nickgalaida in the RotoGrinders Discord! Our goal is to continue providing high-quality research and survivor options for the remainder of this NFL season.
Below, we have our list of red flags, in no particular order of importance, to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when choosing your team:
1. Intra-division games
2. Primetime games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
My Week 5 NFL Survivor Pick: San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers are a flawed team, and they have been snake-bitten by injuries to begin 2024, but their Week 5 opponent has very few redeemable qualities. The Arizona Cardinals have a competent offense, in theory, but they ranked 22nd in EPA/play in Week 3 and 22nd in EPA/play in Week 4. The only game in which Arizona’s offense has scored more than 20 points this fall came against a Los Angeles Rams team that was completely decimated by injuries.
Defensively, the Cardinals ranked 31st in EPA/play and 32nd in success rate this past weekend against the Commanders. Entering Week 5, Arizona’s defense ranks 29th in DVOA, 30th in EPA/play, and 32nd in success rate overall. They can’t stop the run and teams are shredding their secondary unit through the air. The Cardinals aren’t making opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable, either – Arizona ranked 29th in defensive pressure rate in Week 3 and 28th in Week 4.
San Francisco has been far from perfect so far this season, but they are 2-0 at home and didn’t play with their food against New England this past weekend. Brock Purdy is leading the entire NFL in yards per attempt from a clean pocket this fall. The 49ers offense should be able to win this game by themselves if their injury-riddled defense experiences any struggles. However, Kyler Murray is coming off of back-to-back negative EPA/play games against the Lions and Commanders, so it’s unlikely that we see him take a major step forward in this spot. Opposing quarterbacks have ranked 14th, 18th, 10th, and 30th in weekly EPA/play against San Francisco to begin the new campaign. If the 49ers can simply limit the damage done against them on the ground, there shouldn’t be much to sweat here.
Week 5 Survivor Fade: Seattle Seahawks
There are only 2 teams favored by 6+ points this week, meaning that one of them has to be the team to trust, and the other has to be the team to fade in this article for Week 5. That is to say that the Seattle Seahawks aren’t necessarily on upset alert as much as they are on injury watch. In Week 4, the Seahawks were missing EDGE Uchenna Nwosu, EDGE Boye Mafe, DT Byron Murphy II, DE Leonard Williams, and LB Jerome Baker – 5 key pieces on the defensive side of the ball.
The net result was allowing 42 points to the Detroit Lions and allowing Jared Goff to become the first quarterback in NFL history to complete 100% of his pass attempts in a single game. Seattle finished Week 4 ranked 32nd in defensive EPA/play and 31st in success rate allowed.
The New York Giants do not have a top-tier offense, and they could be without star rookie WR Malik Nabers this weekend. Nevertheless, a team missing half of their defensive starters isn’t exactly a trustworthy option for a do-or-die survivor entry. It’s possible that the injury report looks a little bit better heading into the weekend, but Murphy II and Mafe were both absent at Wednesday’s practice, with Nwosu, Baker, and Williams each being limited. There are some red flags for Seattle in this matchup, even against a New York franchise that seems to be on the verge of spiraling to the bottom of the NFC standings.
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