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NFL Weekly Grind Down: Championship Weekend

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2014-01-19 17:27:16

We’re finally here. Daily fantasy football may have lost much of its gusto at the end of Week 17 but this Sunday marks the official end of daily fantasy action in the NFL. If you’re going to be playing this weekend, your lineups will need to be pretty much perfect to win a tournament. With that said, what an intriguing set of 2 games this Sunday. It should be a great way to put a bow on the 2013 DFS season and just wanted to thank all of you for reading this article throughout the year and can’t wait to see you in 2014.

Since it’s a limited slate, we’ll skip the charts and just breakdown the games.

New England Patriots

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In an offense led by Tom Brady, the expectation is typically pass first and run second. Not since the days of Corey Dillon have the Patriots been heavily reliant on the rushing game. But last week we saw yet another monster game from one of the most unlikely suspects in the Patriots offense, LeGarrette Blount. Blount found his way to the end zone on 4 occasions, while rushing for 166 yards on 24 carries. His last three game logs have been astounding:

Maybe more astounding than Blount though was the Patriots rush to pass ratio. In the divisional round, New England ran the ball 44 times compared to just 25 passing attempts for Brady. Blount had 24, but Stevan Ridley was also made the most of his 14 carries for 52 yards and 2 TDs. Those 44 carries are also nearly 3 times as many as the Chargers were able to manage in their divisional round loss against the Broncos. Woodhead, Brown and Mathews combined for just 15 total rushes, totaling 55 yards. The question this weekend might not be whether or not the Patriots will try to be a run-first offense, but instead whether they can afford to be if they fall in the same hole that the Broncos put them in in Week 12. New England ran the ball 25 or more times in 10 different games this season and in those games the Patriots were 10-0, compared to a 2-4 record when they were under the 25 carries mark.

As far as matchup goes, the Broncos have sustained a ton of injuries on their front seven but there haven’t been too many teams who have been able to maintain the running game against them. Since Week 6, only two opposing backs have had 18 or more rush attempts against Denver. Jamaal Charles ran for 93 yards and 1 TD on 19 carries and Ryan Mathews ran 29 times for 127 yards and 1 TD. Because of the big leads created by their offense, their front seven was rarely pressured and they rounded out the season allowing the 12th fewest FPPG to opposing RBs over their last 5 games and 5th fewest over their last 3 games.

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In the air, the Patriots have the most targeted regular season receiver still remaining in the 2013 playoffs on their roster in Julian Edelman. Edelman was thrown at 151 times by Brady during the 2013 campaign and then saw 9 more in a run-heavy divisional round a weekend ago. Since Rob Gronkowski went down in Week 14, Edelman has seen 50 total targets in 4 games between Weeks 15 and last weekend. He also was thrown at 12 times in the Week 12 contest against Denver, despite Gronk being on the field. Quentin Jammer was the Broncos CB in coverage most often on Edelman, and he was targeted 5 times for 4 receptions, 15 yards and a TD.

Coverage this week is likely to be much different though, as Edelman has become the featured WR in this offense since that game and Broncos CB Chris Harris went on IR this week after an injury in the divisional round vs. SD. You can most likely expect Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to follow Edelman on the outside but Edelman will play a ton of slot in this one, especially since Harris was their go-to slot corner. He played 363 snaps at slot corner this year, with Duke Ihenacho playing the next highest number of slot snaps at just 73. The most likely situation here is that Champ Bailey is forced to play a lot of snaps at slot corner, and while the name is daunting he’s been injured all season and has yet to show that he’s the same premiere corner he once was in 2013.

Denver Broncos

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Peyton Manning set records for passing yards, passing touchdowns and pretty much every imaginable passing based record you can think of during the 2013 season, but when these two teams met in Week 12 Manning threw for just 150 total yards while the three Broncos running backs combined for 280 yards on the ground. In fact, the Broncos ran on first down on all but 2 series for the entire game. This is the same Broncos team that passed on 1st down with 2 and a half minutes left last week with the Chargers having 0 timeouts remaining. There were three major factors that lead to this. The first being the weather; it was cold and windy and passing into the wind was a huge dilemma for both teams in quarters in which they were forced against it. There’s no better proof of this than Belichick’s decision to defer in OT and ‘take the wind’, a move that could have easily blown up in his face. The second was the early lead taken by Denver, and after they established a 20+ point advantage over the Patriots there were plenty of reasons to take the air out of the ball. The final reason was the art of the Belichick defense, which left huge spaces over the middle of the front seven and essentially forced Peyton to put the ball on the ground. The final factor is one that Belichick has been using against Manning for years, but given the combination of factors 1 and 2 above, it was even easier for Peyton to defer to his backs.

This weekend, I’d imagine 150 passing yards from Peyton won’t be enough to push the Broncos past the Patriots. I’d also imagine he needs to be a whole lot better than he was in the divisional round against the Chargers. He threw for 230 yards with 2 touchdowns but had one ball intercepted in the red zone to end the first half that almost came back to haunt him as the Chargers fell just short of completing their comeback. The 230 passing yards was the second fewest by Manning all season, the fewest being of course that 150 total amassed in New England in Week 12. The fact remains that he wasn’t the same dominant Manning that we saw in the regular season and the differentials between his performances in the playoffs and the regular season over time are staggering.

As far as where he’ll be throwing, his favorite target Demaryius Thomas struggled against Aqib Talib’s shadow coverage in Week 12. Talib chased Thomas all over the field and was the closest defender on 6 of his 9 targets in that game. Thomas reeled in only 3 of those 6 targets for 30 yards and a TD. Welker saw 6 different players, from linebackers to corners, in coverage in that game, something he’ll see again this week most likely. The Patriots linebacking corps has changed a bit since then, with Brandon Spikes being sent to the IR last weekend and replaced by Jamie Collins who was superb in last week’s tilt vs. IND and is a significantly better pass defender than Spikes despite some struggles in the run game. He’ll be a key piece of covering both Welker and TE Julius Thomas who didn’t suit up in the Week 12 game. While he didn’t dress, that didn’t mean there weren’t issues for the Patriots against Tight Ends, as Jacob Tamme posted 5 catches for 47 yards and a score.

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The last piece of the puzzle for Denver in the passing game is Eric Decker, who lines up in the slot on about 33% of snaps according to PFF. When he and Welker are both in the slot, it’s likely that Decker draws Logan Ryan in coverage, who has been a revelation in the New England secondary. Ryan was in coverage on 3 of Decker’s 4 targets in Week 12 and Decker had 0 catches on those targets and Ryan picked off Manning once and deflected another pass. Overall, the Patriots ranked 19th against WRs over the last 5 weeks of the regular season and 26th against tight ends in that span, and they tend to give up a ton of yards as part of their bend don’t break defensive mentality.

Now we can move to the rushing attack, which as noted above was spectacular for Denver against a banged up Patriots front seven. If nothing else, the Pats have lost more on their front seven since then and may be more vulnerable to the rush than ever. They allowed 63 rushing yards to Donald Brown last weekend on just 17 carries and that number could have easily gone higher if the Colts were able to keep that game closer. The week before, Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller combined for 165 rushing yards against the Patriots front seven. New England finished out the regular season allowing the 9th most FPPG to RB’s over their last 5 games. This brings us to Moreno, whose 224 rushing yards in Week 12 was just one of two occasions where he broke the 100 yard plateau in the regular season. The 37 carries he received were 10 more than he had in any other game this season as well. While those gaudy stats shouldn’t be expected, you can count on Belichick approaching this game with a similar mindset to Week 12; let them run the ball. Holes will be available for Moreno and rookie RB Montee Ball to exploit, and if Peyton can commit to the run they should both be in for solid days on the ground.

San Francisco 49ers

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It’s already hard enough to put a team together on Championship weekend with just two games, but when one of those two games has an over/under of 39.5 points and pits the two best defenses in the NFL against each other, you really have to dig deep. The Seahawks defense doesn’t have many, if any, holes, and Colin Kaepernick threw for just 302 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs in 2 combined matchups against them this year. The one place where they’ve been exposed at times is on the ground, and Frank Gore did find success in the most recent matchup against Seattle at Candlestick Park. He was handed the ball just 17 times but made the most of those carries, going for 110 yards. He was one of four RBs to surpass the 100 yard mark against the Seahawks front seven this season, and while they played well against New Orleans in the divisional round they were still touched up by 13 carries for 57 yards and a TD to third string RB Khiry Robinson. Gore has been hit or miss this year, but has been solid this postseason, going for 150 yards on 37 carries with a TD this postseason. Given how good the Seattle secondary has been this year combined with the O/U in this game, Gore should get a ton of touches on the ground and has the best chance of putting together a productive fantasy day in this 49ers offense.

Then comes the passing game, which will face a Seattle secondary that had some minor lapses in the divisional round against New Orleans. And when I say lapses, I mean that they had a couple of should-be-interceptions bounce of off them and turn into catches. They were able to completely eliminate Jimmy Graham, holding him to just one reception, but Marques Colston put together a strong day, reeling in 11 catches for 144 yards and 1 TD as the Saints played catch up. Back when these two teams played in San Fran, Anquan Boldin actually put together a decent day while reeling in 6 balls for 93 yards of his own. The Seahawks secondary is big, strong and physical, so it makes sense that Boldin’s own physicality could matchup well with Seattle. That 6 catch performance was one of 3 times that the Seattle secondary allowed 5 or more receptions to a WR over their last 5 games. It’s not a mind-blowing stat, but finding any sort of breathing room on a short slate is critical.

The other intriguing dynamic in the San Fran offense has been the ebb and flow of production for Crabtree vs. Boldin since Crab came back to the team. Only once since Week 13 have both receivers been able to post productive stat lines in the same game, and that came in a surprise shootout against the Falcons in Week 15. The 49ers just don’t throw the ball enough to feed both mouths, but in almost every week since Crabtree came back, one of the two wideouts has had a solid fantasy performance:

At least one of the two has had 12+ fantasy points in every game since Crabtree’s return, and that includes against some of the better defenses in the NFL in Seattle, St. Louis, Arizona and Carolina. Boldin has had the upper hand in most games, but Kaepernick will likely take what the defense gives him, so predicting which has the bigger day on Sunday could be a challenge. I’m leaning towards Boldin, but in the divisional round I favored Crabtree and that went the opposite direction so you can cautiously have one or the other on your lineups this weekend.

Seattle Seahawks

For Seattle, they get to face a defense that has quietly struggled against the pass since Week 16 of the regular season. They came into the postseason allowing Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer to throw for 755 yards and 4 TDs in the last two games of the regular season. 5 different receivers had 70 or more receiving yards against them in those 2 games, with 2 of them having over 100 yards. In the postseason, they’ve allowed a 7 reception, 62 yards and 1 TD game to Jordy Nelson followed by 4 catches and 104 yards to Ted Ginn and 4 catches for 74 yards and a TD to Steve Smith. Smith is the most similar to the 2 WRs who torched the 49ers to end the regular season, Roddy White and Larry Fitzgerald, in that all three are terrific route runners with enough athleticism to separate themselves from coverage. The closest thing Seattle has to that is Golden Tate, who has been boom or bust all season long. In Week 2 vs. SF, he had 1 catch for 19 yards. Then in Week 14 he was much better with 6 receptions for 65 yards. In that Week 14 game, Tate did most of his damage with the banged up Carlos Rogers in coverage, touching him for 3 receptions on 3 targets and 45 yards. Rogers is very questionable to play this weekend, and even if he does it’s unlikely he’s at full strength, so Tate might be able to find space again out of the RWR position. Going hand-in-hand with Tate is the performance of Russell Wilson, whose late season struggles continued against New Orleans a week ago. Since the last time these teams met in Week 14, Wilson has thrown for no more than 206 yards, totaling 788 passing yards with 4 TDs and 3 INTs in 5 games. In that span, his highest completion percentage was 66.7% against the Giants, and he’s had 2 games with a completion percentage of 50% or lower. All the praise in the world has been heaped on Wilson for his leadership skills and ability to win games for Seattle, but his stats will need to be better in the NFC Championship game if Seattle wants to advance to the Super Bowl and avoid allowing their divisional rival a 2nd consecutive trip to the big game.

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The man who has picked up the slack for Wilson, especially over the last 2 weeks, has been Marshawn Beast Mode Skittles Sandwich Lynch (I believe that’s his Christian-given name). Lynch barreled down for 97 yards and a TD in the season finale then just tore up the Saints front seven in the Divisional Round to the tune of 140 yards on 28 carries with 2 rushing touchdowns. Overall, Lynch has been phenomenal in postseason play throughout his career. In 5 playoff games, Beastmode has 451 yards rushing on 87 carries (5.18 YPC), and 5 rushing touchdowns. Much of that has come in 2 monster games against the Saints, but still he clearly brings the best to the postseason and has been one of the most productive RBs in recent postseason memory. He’ll need to be stellar on Sunday night, as the 49ers rated out as the 5th best rushing defense on PFF this season. With that said, they’ve been susceptible at times against the run and Lynch does have 160 rushing yards and 3 TDs in 2 games against them this season. Lynch also has much better splits at home, and in the early season home matchup between these two teams he ran for 98 yards on 28 touches with 2 rushing scores.

The last aspect of this offense to account for will depend on the status of Percy Harvin. As of Thursday, Harvin still hadn’t practiced after the Saints succeeded in their early game efforts to knock Harvin out cold. It was pretty clear that New Orleans was making a concerted effort to rough Harvin up a bit in his first game back last week and the result was him stumbling off the field with a concussion. If Harvin is able to play, Wilson and the Seahawks offense want to find ways to get him involved as much as possible. Harvin only took part in 19 total snaps in the divisional round, with just 12 of those coming on passing plays. But of those snaps, he was still targeted 4 times for 3 receptions AND he was given a rush attempt. A touch for every 4 snaps is a pretty impressive number and while unsustainable, it still shows how much Pete Carroll wants to do with a healthy Harvin in this offense.

Conference Championships Daily Plays

Instead of doing a fantasy relevant section this week, I’ll instead just do a daily plays section where I highlight the guys I think will be the best bet for output on Sunday and then a few ‘outside-the-box’ plays that might make you scratch your head but could be just the type of player to win you a GPP on a limited game slate.

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

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Wide Receivers

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Tight Ends

About the Author

Ethan
Ethan Haskell (Ethan)