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NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 13

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-12-01 01:08:59

Welcome to the RotoGrinders Weekly NFL Grind Down Article. There’s no better place to start your research for NFL action in the week ahead than the Grind Down. Each week, we break down every game in an effort to better prepare you when building your daily fantasy lineups.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

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Jacksonville at Cleveland

Jacksonville Jaguars Cleveland Browns
Jaguars Browns
Sun – 1:00PM ET FirstEnergy Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
7 40.5 16.75 -7 40.5 23.75
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 12.9 32 22 32 Offense 18.5 29 16 28
Defense 29.5 30 18 29 Defense 24.1 18 5 6
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Cleveland 16 16 9 16 Jacksonville 26 25 14 31
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Shorts 106 9.6 6.7 11.0 Gordon 98 10.9 16.0 17.0
Brown 30 4.8 3.5 Little 76 6.9 6.5 7.0
Sanders 47 4.8 5.3 5.0 Bess 74 6.7 7.0 8.0
Lewis 20 3.3 4.7 1.0 Cameron 88 8.1 8.5 10.0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Woah, two wins in three games for the Jags and suddenly their no longer locked into the #1 overall pick. Last week they headed into Houston and knocked off Keenum and company for a thrilling 13-6 win. We’ll start with their passing game, which clicked at times in that Week 12 game, and Cecil Shorts emerged from a recent slump to haul in 8 balls for 72 yards. Henne threw the ball well, going for over 250 yards passing but failed to throw a touchdown pass. Overall, Jacksonville has a measly 5 TD passes for the entire season. That will be an intriguing matchup against a Browns defense that has allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for multiple scores in their last 6 games. Shorts will likely draw Haden on the outside and although Antonio Brown was able to rattle Haden a bit in Week 12, it’s pretty doubtful that one of the best corners in the league won’t be able to slow the Henne/Shorts combo. That has lead to the majority of teams heavily targeting their WR2’s against Cleveland and having a lot of success. Last week, Emmanuel Sanders hauled in 6 catches for 62 yards and a TD. Marlon Brown, Dexter McCluster, Jarrett Boykin and Kris Durham have all had similar success over the past five weeks. For the Jags, that #2 will likely be Mike Brown who is expected to play on Sunday despite sitting out Week 12. Ace Sanders should also see a good amount of snaps in that role as well. Also worth noting is that Buster Skrine, the Browns starting CB2 across from Haden, is very questionable for this weekend’s game. If he sits, that could create an even better matchup for Sanders and Brown.

On the ground, MJD has been a pleasant surprise over the past four games. In full point PPR scoring, Jones-Drew has averaged an impressive 18.9 fantasy points per game in that span, including a quality 26.4 point performance against the Texans last weekend. The key has been his impact in the receiving game, where he’s now been targeted 22 times over the Jags past four contests. In comparison, he was targeted just 17 times through Jacksonville’s first 7 games of the year. He’ll have a big challenge on Sunday though, against a Browns front seven that has allowed the 5th fewest FPPG to opposing running backs over the last 5 weeks. They have however allowed some opposing backs to have success in the screen game:

Jones-Drew may be able to remain relevant despite the run-stopping abilities of Cleveland’s defense.

Cleveland Browns

For Cleveland the focus this week will be on Brandon Weeden as he will most likely be handling the quarterbacking duties with Jason Campbell dazed and confused from a concussion. In Week 12, Weeden entered the game in the 3rd quarter and threw the ball pretty well. He managed 209 yards with a TD and an INT while trying to play catch up against the Steelers. After entering the game, Weeden attempted 26 passes. Here’s the breakdown of who he was aiming for:

Gordon had the huge game and remains one of the most talented wideouts in the entire NFL. But his matchup against the Jags might not be as juicy as it seems. Jacksonville has actually forced a number of high quality wideouts to struggle in recent weeks and CB Alan Ball is actually 22nd on PFF’s cornerback ratings. They haven’t allowed an opposing WR1 to go for more than 80 yards since Week 5 against Reggie Wayne and in that span they’ve slowed down Demaryius Thomas, Keenan Allen, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson. Much like Cleveland’s secondary though, they have a significant weakness when it comes to stopping WR2’s. Michael Floyd exploited that in Week 11 for 193 yards and a score. They also struggle vs. TE’s, with opposing tight ends combining for at least 50 yards receiving in each of the Jags last five games. Remember Jordan Cameron and his monster start to the 2013 season through Weeks 1 and 2? Well those were both with Weeden under center and he could definitely find increased opportunities with Weeden over Campbell.

JAX @ CLE – Daily Fantasy Relevant

Tennessee at Indianapolis

Tennessee Titans Indianapolis Colts
Titans Colts
Sun – 1:00PM ET Lucas Oil Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
4 44.5 20.25 -4 44.5 24.25
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 22.7 20 21 16 Offense 23.9 16 18 18
Defense 22.3 10 8 18 Defense 23.6 15 19 27
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Indianapolis 19 6 26 8 Tennessee 4 30 1 21
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Wright 91 8.3 9.3 7.0 Hilton 92 8.1 8.7 9.0
Washington 70 6.4 4.7 6.0 Whalen 20 3.3 4.0
Hunter 25 2.5 4.7 6.0 Heyward-Bey 54 5.1 5.0 6.0
Walker 63 5.7 9.0 9.0 Fleener 66 5.7 9.3 8.0

Tennessee Titans

In a rematch of the game in Tennessee on Thursday Night Football, the Titans head to Indy to take on a struggling Colts team. At 5-6, this is a must win for the Titans to have an outside shot of taking down the AFC south. We’re now nearly three full consecutive games in with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the head of this offense and he’s actually been really impressive. He’s averaging 21.2 FPPG in that span and has thrown a TD pass in each of those three games. He’s played the majority of 5 games on the year, but just looking at the last 3, here are his targets:

Wright and Walker have benefited massively from Fitzpatrick at the helm, likely due to an average depth of target around 8.6 yards per throw according to ProFootballFocus. This entire passing game has a terrific matchup against a Colts secondary that has fallen apart over recent weeks. They’ve now allowed a passing touchdown in each of their last 7 games. In that span, 3 QBs have thrown for 300+ yards and 5 have had multi-TD efforts. One last note on the Colts defense, Alterraun Verner, who has been their best CB this season, is questionable and might sit this one out. If he does, bump up all Titans receivers.

On the ground, Chris Johnson continues to be boom or bust, but he did score twice and rush for 86 yards in the Titans Week 11 loss to Indianapolis en route to just over 20 fantasy points. This Colts front seven has now allowed 4 straight running back combos to cross the 100 yard marker, although no individual back has done it. They’ve also allowed a rushing TD in four of their last 5 games.

Indianapolis Colts

For Indy, it’s been a mixed bag on offense since Reggie Wayne went out for the season. They have games against AFC South opponents where they scored 30 and 27 points. And they have games against non-divisional opponents where they scored 11 and 8 points. This offense was stalled by a strong Titans secondary in Week 11 and it wouldn’t be surprising to see that happen again in Week 13. The Titans have only allowed 2 passing touchdowns since Week 4 and have yet to allow a 300+ yard passer or a 100+ yard receiver. In Week 11, T.Y. Hilton was shut down for just 5 receptions and 44 yards by this secondary that tailed him with Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner. According to PFF, Hilton was targeted 4 times in that game with Verner/McCourty in coverage and managed just 2 receptions for 14 yards. He might be able to find some room over the top in Week 13 though, as stud FS Michael Griffin is serving a one-game suspension for an illegal hit. Luck will also likely use a heavy dose of Coby Fleener who has been incredible over his last 2 games and gets a Tennessee defense that ranks in the bottom-10 against TE’s on the season. Not having Griffin on the field for TEN should benefit Fleener as well over the middle.

The run game for Indy is an absolute mess, and to be perfectly honest there’s no reason for Trent Richardson to be getting more than 2-3 spot touches each game. He was handed the ball 7 more times in their Week 12 loss and T-Rich managed just 15 yards. That makes it 5 consecutive games where he’s failed to average more than 3 yards per carry. Donald Brown only saw 2 touches also, likely because the Colts were playing catch up in most of that game. Regardless, Brown had 14 touches for 80 yards and two TDs against a porous Titans front seven and has that same solid matchup in Week 13.

TEN @ IND – Daily Fantasy Relevant

Arizona at Philadelphia

Arizona Cardinals Philadelphia Eagles
Cardinals Eagles
Sun – 1:00PM ET Lincoln Financial Field
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
3 48.5 22.75 -3 48.5 25.75
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 23.1 18 13 24 Offense 25.1 9 9 1
Defense 20.3 8 17 2 Defense 23.6 15 32 21
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Philadelphia 25 20 32 4 Arizona 15 2 6 32
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Fitzgerald 91 8.2 8.7 11.0 Jackson 90 8.1 4.5
Floyd 75 6.8 6.3 7.0 Cooper 55 5.0 6.0
Roberts 55 5.0 5.7 5.0 Avant 59 5.4 3.5
Housler 39 4.3 6.3 5.0 Celek 31 2.9 1.0

Arizona Cardinals

Don’t tell anyone but the Cardinals are playing really, really well. Their fourth straight win came last Sunday and they’ve knocked off an AFC or NFC south opponent in each one of those Ws. Carson Palmer is leading the charge, and has now had multiple touchdown passes in 4 consecutive games. He’s averaging 22 FPPG over his last two and now gets to face an Eagles secondary that has allowed 7 opponents to throw for 300+ yards on the season in their 11 games. Maybe more importantly, the Eagles haven’t held any QB under 248 passing yards all season long. During that four game win streak, Palmer has utilized Larry Fitzgerald a ton and Fitz has been the high-impact WR we’ve been waiting for. Here’s Palmers target breakdown during those four games:

Fitz has 4 receiving touchdowns and if you throw out a bad game in Week 11, he is averaging 16 FPPG over those 3 games. Fitz has had some help though, as Michael Floyd has been an animal over the past two. He has 100+ yards receiving in each and 21 FPPG during that time. The Eagles secondary has been torched by both Rod Streater and Jarrett Boykin in the WR2 spot over their last 3 games and Floyd seems to be in line for another monster stat line.

The Cardinals running game continues to be baffling, so I won’t say too much there. It’s worth noting that Ellington is a game time decision. If he sits, it adds a lot of value to Mendenhall against an Eagles defense that could potentially be missing Trent Cole. Both of those injuries are worth watching. If Cole and Ellington sit, bump Mendenhall way up as he does have a rush TD in each of his last two games.

Philadelphia Eagles

The exciting matchup will be on the outside in this one, as speedsters DeSean Jackson and Patrick Peterson will see a whole lot of eachother. The entire Eagles passing game will be in for a challenge coming off their bye week, as the Cardinals are 4th on PFF’s pass defense ratings and Jackson’s streak of 12+ FP in 4 straight games could be in jeopardy. Here’s how the last few WR1’s have performed against the Cards:

Peterson has been superb in that span and has earned a positive defensive rating on PFF in each of those games. Foles may be able to find more success throwing towards Riley Cooper, as ARI has had some struggles against WR2s with Ace Sanders and DeAndre Hopkins combining for 149 RecYd on 14 catches in Weeks 10 and 11. He also may need to check down to his tight ends more often. The Cards are dead last against TE’s on the year and 5th worst over the last 3 weeks. Zach Ertz has seen the majority of TE targets, although the Philly TEs on a whole have only been targeted 7 times between 3 TEs over Philly’s last two games.

On the ground, LeSean McCoy had 150+ total yards for the 2nd consecutive game in Week 11 before the bye and even found the end zone twice. It’ll be a challenge for him on Sunday though against a Cardinals team that has held 4 consecutive RB1’s to under 60 yards. They’ve only been vulnerable against 2 backs all year, and that was against Marshawn Lynch and Frank Gore in Weeks 5 and 6. Other than that, their front seven has been outstanding against the rush. Still, the Eagles will try and run often as they are 6th in the NFL with a 46.8% run play percentage and McCoy has had success against a number of tough rush defenses this season including a monster game against KC in Week 2.

ARI @ PHI – Daily Fantasy Relevant

Miami at NY Jets

Miami Dolphins New York Jets
Dolphins Jets
Sun – 1:00PM ET MetLife Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
0 38.5 19.25 0 38.5 19.25
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 20.8 23 20 26 Offense 16.9 31 31 8
Defense 22.3 10 14 26 Defense 26.1 25 23 1
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
NY Jets 21 1 23 24 Miami 6 27 3 28
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Wallace 96 8.4 7.7 10.0 Hill 55 5.0 4.0 1.0
Hartline 89 7.6 8.7 5.0 Nelson 33 4.7 4.0 5.0
Matthews 41 4.0 9.0 7.0 Holmes 36 6.0 6.0 4.0
Clay 68 5.6 7.3 7.0 Cumberland 28 2.8 3.0 2.0

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins blew a lead on Sunday against Carolina and are at 5-6 with 5 to play. They’re still well in the hunt for a wild card spot in the AFC but will have to dispose of a Jets team that is teetering on the brink of a collapse. The story begins and ends for Miami with their O-line right now, as they have been an absolute disaster since the Incognito/Martin controversy. Tannehill has been sacked an average of 4 times per game and was taken down another 3 times Of the 40 times Tannehill dropped back, he was rushed or under pressure on 17 of them. In fact, according to ProFootballFocus, the only two positively rated offensive linemen the Dolphins have on the year are Incognito and Mike Pouncey who sat last week after stomach surgery. Pouncey is somehow expected to return this week, but his effectiveness is in question after apparently dropping 30-40 pounds following his surgery. The Dolphins will need Pouncey against the best rush defense in the NFL and one of the best pass rushes in football. The Dolphins are 26th in yards per game on the ground and the Jets allow the fewest yards per game to opposing RB’s, so even though Daniel Thomas going down opens the door for more Lamar Miller touches, this is possibly the worst matchup to target Miller in.

Through the air, the Jets have certainly been vulnerable this year. Last week it was Jacoby Jones busting out over the top for 100+ yards receiving. I pointed out in that Jets/Ravens breakdown that the Jets have really struggled against the deep ball. They continue to have those issues and targeting deep threats is a prudent strategy. That could mean big things for Mike Wallace, whose average depth of targets is very similar to Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones at 15.8 yards according to PFF. Wallace exploded in Week 12, shocking everyone by hauling in 5 balls for 127 yards and a score. He should be able to have similar success against NYJ who has now allowed 8 receivers to go for 70+ yards in their last 4 games (3 of those went for 100+ RecYd). That matchup could be even better if Antonio Cromartie sits, although as of right now he’s questionable but it looks like he’ll go.

New York Jets

This Jets offense has completely stalled and a switch at the QB position could be in the very near future for New York. With just 17 total points over their last two games, they haven’t been able to take advantage of a weak AFC wild card race. Even worse is their league worst 18.9% third down conversion rate in their last 3 games. The next worst team in that span is Oakland, converting on 25% of 3rd downs (before Thursday). With a lackluster receiving corps and Geno under center, there’s not much to be excited about in the Jets passing game. PFF has their passing offense rated as the 4th worst in all of football and Geno has 0 TD passes in his last 4 games to go with no more than 160 passing yards in any of those games and 7 INT. Much like the Dolphins run game against the Jets front seven, this matchup is pretty bad against an MIA team holding opposing QBs to around 12 FPPG over their last 5 games. They’ve also held 7 consecutive QBs without multiple TD passes.

The run game needs to be a focal point for the Jets to have success in this game. Last week, Ivory and Powell were stalled against a staunch Ravens front seven. Before that, Ivory had found himself a nice groove and had 3 games between Weeks 7-11 with 98 rush yards or more and 2 TDs in that 4 game span. Against a Dolphins defense that ranks 27th in FPPG-allowed to opposing backs, Ivory has a good matchup on Sunday and given their pass game struggles, he’s likely to see 15-20 touches. With the 38 O/U and even spread set in Vegas, you can guess that this game is going to be a slow-tempo, grind-it-out style of game which bodes well for Ivory. If the Jets can get a lead heading into the later quarters, Ivory could eat up clock at a 3-4 YPC clip.

MIA @ NYJ – Daily Fantasy Relevant

NFL Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

About the Author

Ethan
Ethan Haskell (Ethan)