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NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 17 - Page 3

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-12-28 21:28:56

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Houston at Tennessee

Houston Texans Tennessee Titans
Texans Titans
Sun – 1:00PM ET LP Field
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
7 44 18.5 -7 44 25.5
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 17.7 31 16 19 Offense 23.1 18 21 15
Defense 27.5 26 3 24 Defense 24.7 19 10 20
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Tennessee 4 30 2 21 Houston 18 17 9 19
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Johnson 172 11.5 14.7 13.0 Wright 132 8.8 10.0 7.0
Hopkins 87 5.7 5.3 4.0 Washington 99 6.6 7.7 8.0
Martin 37 2.5 5.0 6.0 Hunter 39 3.0 4.5 1.0
Griffin 21 1.5 4.7 5.0 Walker 83 5.9 9.0 7.0

Houston Texans

The Texans quarterback situation looks like a true gametime call, with Keenum getting the nod if he’s healthy enough and Schaub taking the reigns if not. So what does that say for daily fantasy? Avoid. Avoid. Avoid. Houston is one of a small number of teams with both nothing to play for and that would actually benefit from a loss. They’ll get the #1 overall pick if they drop the Week 17 contest at Tennessee, so just ignore the passing attack here. Andre Johnson is an intriguing option but Tennessee’s secondary is generally solid and I’d be shocked if Johnson went full tilt. The one option in play here is Ryan Griffin, with Graham and Daniels unlikely to go. Griffin has 11 catches and 128 receiving yards over his last two games and the Titans are sub par against tight ends. Three straight TE’s have found the end zone against Tennessee, including a 4 catch, 50 yard and 1 TD game allowed to Marcedes Lewis in Week 16.

Ignoring that nightmare, you may actually be able to find value by targeting the Houston running game. Dennis Johnson is now expected to miss Week 17, so they’ll be relying on 4th string back Jonathan Grimes, who looked OK in fill-in duties last weekend with 5 carries for 23 yards. The Titans have allowed the 4th most FPPG to opposing RBs over the last 5 weeks and the 6th most over the last 3 weeks. On the season, they have allowed the 3rd most. They haven’t allowed a 100+ yard back since Week 9, but did allow at least 69 yards rushing to multiple running backs in both Weeks 14 and 15. I’m not sure what Grimes’ involvement in the passing game will be, but TEN has also allowed 188 receiving yards to opposing RBs in their last three games.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans may not have any shot at making the playoffs, but the core of their team is relatively young and they’re already starting a backup QB, so you shouldn’t really expect them mail it in in Week 17. We’ll start in the passing game which will have a much easier matchup with Johnathan Joseph placed on IR last week. Joseph was one of the only productive players in the Houston secondary and without him the Houston secondary fell apart last weekend vs. Denver. Even with Joseph, the Texans had allowed 4 consecutive multi-TD games to opposing QBs. Last weekend, both Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker posted 100+ yard games, and before the injury to Joseph the Texans struggled mightily against WR2s. Everything should shift up one spot which will allow some breathing room for the likes of Kendall Wright and Nate Washington on the outside. Speaking of Washington, he’s been on fire over the last two weeks and has established himself as a viable option for Ryan Fitzpatrick in the waning weeks of the 2013 season. Washington has 17 targets (9 and 8 each week) and the following stat lines:

Last week, Washington accounted for 117 of Fitzpatrick’s 181 receiving yards as well. Houston ranks 26th against WRs over the last three weeks and 27th against QBs in that span, so the aerial attack should be open at home for the Titans.

The run game really broke out last weekend though, as both CJ2K and Shonn Greene had over 90 yards rushing against the hapless Jaguars rush D. Houston has gone three consecutive weeks without allowing a rush TD, but they have allowed 100 net yards rushing to opposing running backs in each of their last three games. They’ve also allowed 2 receiving touchdowns to opposing backs over that three game span and while none of the TEN RBs are particularly involved in Fitzpatrick’s passing offense, that does open up the possibility that Delanie Walker could benefit from the TE slot against a linebacking corps that isn’t stellar in coverage.

HOU @ TEN – Daily Fantasy Relevant

Detroit at Minnesota

Detroit Lions Minnesota Vikings
Lions Vikings
Sun – 1:00PM ET Mall of America Field
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
3 52 24.5 -3 52 27.5
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 25.5 10 3 17 Offense 25.1 12 22 10
Defense 24.1 17 27 4 Defense 31.1 32 32 18
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Minnesota 32 26 31 31 Detroit 15 5 30 5
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Johnson 156 11.1 7.7 4.0 Jennings 100 7.1 9.7 6.0
Burleson 46 5.9 4.3 2.0 Patterson 73 4.8 6.7 7.0
Durham 84 5.5 4.7 7.0 Simpson 95 6.2 5.3 5.0
Fauria 27 1.8 2.7 7.0 Ellison 9

Detroit Lions

The Lions are one of those teams with nothing to play for and head coach Jim Schwartz is just awaiting his downfall as the final game of the season plays out. It’s really too bad that they couldn’t put more on the line in Week 17, since the matchup against Minnesota is beyond juicy. Just take a look at some game logs over the last 4 weeks vs. MIN:

That’s at least one opposing receiver having 90+ receiving yards in their last four games, along with 3 300+ yard QBs and 3 receiving touchdowns allowed to tight ends as well. Over the last 5 weeks, the Vikings rank dead last in terms of fantasy point allowed to QBs and WRs, and they are 28th against TE’s in that span. For Detroit, finding that viable option may be a challenge though as Megatron is unlikely to suit up and Stafford’s focus in this one is in serious question. If Megatron does indeed sit, the only time we can look back on this season without Calvin was Week 5. In that game, Kris Durham lead the Lions in targets with 8, but Nate Burleson wasn’t available in that game either. The best play here may be Joseph Fauria, who will again fill in for the injured Brandon Pettigrew in Week 17. Fauria played on 62/85 snaps in Week 16 and saw an impressive 7 targets while reeling in 3 balls for 43 yards. Fauria has shown he’s a nuisance in the red zone this season and the added snaps make him a tantalizing option against this train wreck of a pass defense.

The rushing attack will likely be an RB by committee system, which makes it difficult to trust the value in either player, especially considering how meaningless this game is. Both Bell and Bush are listed as probable, but Bush played on just 32 snaps in Week 16 compared to 54 for Joique in that game against the G-Men. Also worth noting is that Minnesota served as Bush’s ‘Welcome to Detroit’ party in the Week 1 matchup between these teams. In that game, Bush had 21 carries for 90 rushing yards to go with 101 receiving yards on 4 catches and a RecTD. That was way back in the first game of the season though and the balance of power in both the rushing, and passing out of the backfield game seems to have tilted towards Bell.

Minnesota Vikings

Since news came out today that Matt Asiata will draw the start for Minnesota, I’d like to list a few reasons why he shouldn’t be in consideration as a viable fantasy option in the final week of the season:

1) In his Week 14 explosion, he averaged under 2 yards per carry and found the end zone three times. That’s not sustainable.
2) Detroit has allowed the 5th fewest fantasy points against RBs over the last 5 weeks.
3) Outside of the flukey snow game, no back has topped 100 rushing yards vs. DET and since Week 4, the only team to have an RB find the end zone vs. DET was the Eagles in the a fore mentioned SnowBowl.

Asiata was great if you took him for min-price in that Week 14 game, but the lack of explosiveness paired with strong presence of the Lions front seven takes him out of the question for Week 17.

The passing game may be able to find some openings though, and what immediately struck me about this game is that the hapless Vikes came out as 3 point favorites. The Lions have quit, but they still are significantly more talented than Minnesota and that line is telling me that you should jump on the MIN offensive train via the passing attack on Sunday. After Eli was able to put up one of his best stat lines of the season in Week 16, there shouldn’t be any surprises here if the Vikings are able to do the same.What really struck me was the Lions struggles against WR2’s, as was exploited by Jernel Jernigan in Week 16. The leading receiver for the last 5 teams to face DET was the WR2, and those 5 WR2s have combined for 421 receiving yards and 3 TDs over 5 games. That includes struggles against Jernigan, Tiquan Underwood, James Jones, Riley Cooper and Jacoby Jones. The concern here is that MIN doesn’t have a true WR1, with both Cordarrelle Patterson and Greg Jennings looking like Cassel’s favorite target at varying times in Cassel’s tenure as QB. My guess is that the Lions work to take away Patterson which should leave Jennings with some openings, but both are viable targets and have big upside against this Detroit secondary.

DET @ MIN – Daily Fantasy Relevant

Philadelphia at Dallas

Philadelphia Eagles Dallas Cowboys
Eagles Cowboys
Sun – 8:25PM ET AT&T Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
-6.5 52.5 29.5 6.5 52.5 23
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 27.9 2 9 1 Offense 27.8 3 14 24
Defense 24.0 16 30 12 Defense 27.2 25 31 27
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Dallas 31 32 28 29 Philadelphia 29 14 32 2
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Jackson 122 8.1 9.0 5.0 Bryant 147 9.7 10.7 11.0
Cooper 81 5.3 6.3 3.0 Williams 72 4.8 4.7 6.0
Avant 71 4.7 2.7 3.0 Austin 46 4.6 3.3 2.0
Celek 45 3.1 2.7 4.0 Witten 95 6.3 4.3 2.0

Philadelphia Eagles

The Flex schedule in the NFL has the games all disorganized this week, but this is actually the Sunday night contest as the Eagles and Cowboys will do battle with the NFC East crown on the line. Worth putting out there, this is the one game you can most trust this weekend to see any healthy player going all out for 60 minutes, guaranteed. For Philly, they have won 6 of their last 7 games and now head to Dallas to showcase their high-paced offense against one of the league’s worst defenses. We’ll start on the ground where LeSean McCoy posted monster stats against a historically bad Bears rush defense in Week 16. McCoy ran for 133 yards on just 18 carries, while finding the end zone twice. Good news for LeSean is that the Cowboys defense (which will be without LB Sean Lee again on Sunday) is atrocious against the run as well. They are a significantly worse unit than the one that McCoy faced in Week 7. The splits for the Cowboys rush defense are astounding since that time:

The aggregate FP-allowed to opposing running backs was 21.5 FPPG over the first 7 games, and has skyrocketed to 33.95 over the last 8 contests. McCoy was the last back to truly struggle against the Cowboys, and I’d be shocked to see that same outcome again in Week 17.

Through the air, there are plenty of holes for Foles to exploit as well. Dallas has allowed 9 passing touchdowns over their last 3 games, including 4 each to Josh McCown and Matt Flynn. In that three game span, Foles has thrown 6 of his own, but interestingly enough his total passing yardage has been more boom or bust this season than you might expect. He’s only thrown for over 300 yards twice all year, but both times he did he went well over 400 yards in those games. In the last three weeks, the only game where he’s really aired it out was when they were losing to Minnesota and trying to play catch up. The other two contests had Foles throwing for under 230 yards in each. The Cowboys also struggle against good receivers, and last week Pierre Garcon was the 3rd WR in the last 4 Cowboys games to have 100+ yards receiving against them. Their biggest struggle has been with Brandon Carr who lines up at the RCB slot. Orlando Scandrick is the other starting corner and has been a refreshing surprise for Dallas this year, but last week Carr was torched by Garcon who had 6 catches, 85 yards and 1 TD with Carr specifically in coverage. If the matchups stay relatively similar, DJax will battle with Scandrick for the majority of the day while Riley Cooper may get pawned off onto Brandon Carr and have the matchup advantage there. In the Week 7 matchup, Cooper had a decent game with Morris Claiborne in coverage for most of the day, while DeSean Jackson struggled against both Carr and Scandrick. Claiborne is now out and Carr has struggled mightily of late, so look for Cooper to have the better of the two matchups between himself and DeSean.

Dallas Cowboys

Well I was trying to hold this article off for later in the week because of both Christmas and the fact that there are so many injuries for Week 17 that it’s a challenge to write an article if the landscape of the matchups is constantly changing. Dallas was one of those mind-boggling landscapes where rumors of Tony Romo and season-ending back surgery were being consistently shut down by coaches and GMs while the media kept reporting Romo was down and out. Well Friday Tony underwent back surgery so he is officially out of Sunday’s contest against the Eagles and that leaves the man, the myth, the legend Kyle Orton to run the Cowboys offense. At the very least, Orton will have the advantage of facing a subpar secondary on home turf, but it’s tough to tell where Orton will look for his targets. A likely candidate is Dez Bryant, who had a big 8 reception, 110 yard day in Philadelphia earlier this season. The Eagles threw a variety of corners at Dez in that matchup, but on 8 of Bryant’s 16 targets he was being covered by Cary Williams.Williams rates out as the 94th corner in terms of coverage ratings on ProFootballFocus out of 110 qualified CBs. That means it’s a primetime matchup for Dez who will have to show just how good he is without Romo at the helm and relying on Orton. Overall, the Eagles rank dead last in terms of FP-allowed to WRs on the season and are 29th over the last 5 weeks. Bryant and WR2 Terrance Williams both have extremely enticing matchups, but much of their value depends on Kyle Orton and his ability to throw the football.

The rushing game for Dallas has really been one of their strong points as DeMarco Murray has taken over in the last 4 weeks. He has 439 rushing yards and 5 rush TDs in that span, but has also has proven himself as a good option in the passing game with 14 receptions and a receiving score in that span. He has 20+ fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 games also. But the Eagles defensive strength is their front seven and he should have a more challenging matchup in Week 17 than in weeks past. Over the last four games, Murray has been lucky enough to face Oakland, Chicago, Green Bay and Washington. All four rank in the bottom 12 against RBs this season. The Eagles have allowed the 14th fewest FPPG to opposing RBs on the year and haven’t had a back go for 100+ yards against them since Week 9 when Rashad Jennings torched them. Even when they’ve given up big games to opposing backs, it hasn’t been due to any real gaping holes. For example, Matt Asiata had three rushing touchdowns but had just 52 total yards on 30 carries. Murray will be the #1 option for Dallas with Romo out, especially in the red zone, but don’t ignore how good Philly’s front seven has been just to force Murray into lineups on Sunday.

PHI @ DAL – Daily Fantasy Relevant

NFL Grind Down Page 3 – Page 4

About the Author

Ethan
Ethan Haskell (Ethan)