NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week Eleven - Page 3
Detroit at Pittsburgh
| Detroit Lions | Pittsburgh Steelers | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Heinz Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -1 | 47.5 | 24.25 | 1 | 47.5 | 23.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.4 | 7 | 3 | 21 | Offense | 19.9 | 24 | 11 | 27 | |
| Defense | 24.0 | 18 | 27 | 8 | Defense | 24.2 | 19 | 4 | 29 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Pittsburgh | 8 | 23 | 6 | 17 | Detroit | 17 | 14 | 30 | 13 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Johnson | 96 | 12.0 | 16.5 | 17.0 | Brown | 93 | 10.3 | 11.0 | 11.0 | |
| Durham | 47 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | Sanders | 74 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | |
| Broyles | 14 | 2.3 | 2.0 | Wheaton | 7 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||
| Pettigrew | 46 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 5.0 | Miller | 39 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.0 | |
Detroit Lions
Detroit has now won 2 in a row against solid competition and heads into Week 11 at 6-3 with a firm grasp on the NFC North. They head to Pittsburgh as 1 point road favorites, with a relatively high (for the week’s slate) 47.25 over/under. When it comes to the Lions, one of the biggest debates will always be whether to pay up for Calvin Johnson or fade him. He has 5 TD catches and no less than 83 receiving yards in each of his last 5 games and now draws a Pittsburgh secondary that has been above average this year. They’ve allowed 3 receivers over 100 yards on the season, and two of those came in the Week 9 blowout against the Patriots. That NE game was also the only time any QB has thrown for over 300 yards against them. Obviously Megatron can go up against and beat pretty much anyone, but this matchup may not be as good for both him and Matthew Stafford as in weeks past.
On the ground, it’s all about the addition of Reggie Bush that has put this offense on a new level. He ran for over 100 yards against the Bears last weekend and the Steelers rank in the bottom third of the NFL in rush defense. He should see plenty of opportunities again this weekend for a Detroit offense ranking 6th in the NFL while running 68.6 plays per game.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Stafford has multiple touchdowns in four consecutive games and over 300 yards passing in 2 of those 4. He’s finally found some consistency, but Pittsburgh’s defense has been much better at home (throwing out the one absolute dud vs. Chicago) and they looked better against the Bills last weekend. I’d say his ceiling is diminished a bit in this one.
- RB – Bush may have the best matchup for the Lions as PIT ranks 23rd in FPPG-allowed to opposing running backs. His upside makes him a strong GPP play in any given week, but he’s proven to be consistent as well which should allow you to find room for him on H2H and 50/50 lineups.
- WR – Calvin has a tough matchup against Ike Taylor but you can never rule out his upside. It’s also worth noting that Nate Burleson, who was expected to return in Week 11, is now doubtful for this tilt and Kris Durham should continue to see reps as the WR2.
- TE – The Steelers have been vulnerable a bit against tight ends, with Rob Gronkowski and Chris Gragg finding the end zone in back-to-back weeks against them. Brandon Pettigrew has been a bigger part of the offense in recent weeks and had a nice 5 rec. for 70 yard line in Week 10.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have been extremely inconsistent over the past month of games. One week they take down Baltimore in a defensive battle at home, Then they travel to Oakland and get burnt by Terrelle Pryor followed by a trip to New England where they allowed a franchise-record 55 points. And in Week 10 they return home to suffocate the Bills to just 10 points while totaling 23 of their own. It’s a roller coaster ride but it looks like the team as a whole plays much better at home. One of the key storylines for Pittsburgh this year has been the emergence of Le’Veon Bell who has yet to break the 100 yard plateau but does have 3 or more receptions in each of his last 3 games. That involvement in the passing game makes him an instantly better value and this Detroit defense has struggled against pass catching backs. Here are some of the notables:
- Week 2: Andre Ellington – 2 Rec, 42 RecYd, 1 TD
- Week 4: Matt Forte – 5 rec, 22 RecYd
- Week 6: Chris Ogbonnaya – 7 Rec, 61 RecYd, 1 TD
- Week 7: Giovani Bernard – 5 Rec, 32 RecYd
This could open the door for Bell to do more damage through the air than on the ground where the Lions are allowing just 71 yards per game to opposing backs.
The Pittsburgh passing game has been iffy as well, but the talent is there with Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders seemed to be building something good after back-to-back weeks with 6+ catches and 85+ yards, but fell back to earth in Week 10 with just 4 grabs for 13 yards. Brown goes without saying as the premiere wideout in this offense, and had another 100+ yard game in Week 10. His downside is catching touchdowns, something he’s only done 3 times this season. A lot of this is due to the recent emergence of Jerricho “touchdown thief” Cotchery who now has 4 scores in his last 2 games. It’s also related to the Steelers heavy usage of the run game inside the 20 yard line. Le’Veon Bell has 19 touches inside the 20 in the last 3 weeks, compared to just 4 total looks for Brown, 5 for Sanders and 5 for Cotchery.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Big Ben has an above average matchup and has shown he can put up big stats in shootouts, having thrown for over 380 yards twice this season (both in blowout losses). The Vegas line indicates this game will be pretty close, so I wouldn’t expect him to reach those figures, but he should still put together a strong 260 pass yards, 1-2 touchdown day.
- RB – Bell’s value is much better on PPR sites and the Lions are pretty tough against the ground game. I’d target him in tournaments on DraftKings, StarStreet, DraftDay and FTD only.
- WR – The Lions rank 30th against WRs and have struggled more against WR1s than WR2s. Antonio Brown is probably the best fantasy option from Pittsburgh this weekend and is playable in both cash games and tournaments.
- TE – The Steelers haven’t used their tight end Heath Miller nearly as much as they did a year ago and he’s off the fantasy radar.
Washington at Philadelphia
| Washington Redskins | Philadelphia Eagles | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Lincoln Financial Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 3.5 | 52.5 | 24.5 | -3.5 | 52.5 | 28 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.6 | 9 | 10 | 3 | Offense | 25.2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | |
| Defense | 31.9 | 31 | 26 | 18 | Defense | 24.4 | 20 | 31 | 14 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Philadelphia | 25 | 17 | 32 | 7 | Washington | 27 | 28 | 28 | 24 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Garcon | 99 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 10.0 | Jackson | 86 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 5.0 | |
| Hankerson | 47 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 5.0 | Cooper | 48 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.0 | |
| Moss | 42 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 3.0 | Avant | 56 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 4.0 | |
| Reed | 58 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 9.0 | Celek | 30 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | |
Washington Redskins
Finally we have a game projected to be high scoring. It’s a matchup of two teams that don’t play defense and we’ll start with the Redskins offense going into Philadelphia. These two teams met in Washington in Week 1 and the Skins pulled out a 33-27 victory.RG3 tossed for 329 yards and 2 scores along with 2 picks, while Alfred Morris saw just 12 carries for 45 yards and a score. In recent weeks, the Skins have gotten back to their ground and pound offense, and their pass play percentage has dropped from around 60% to just 52% in the last three games.This has lead to back-to-back 100+ yard games from Morris and 90+ yards in each of his last 4 games. The biggest downside of the Washington rush attack would be the touchdown vultures who seem to come out intentionally to piss off fantasy owners. One week it’s Roy Helu nabbing three touchdowns and the next it’s Darrel Young. The good news is this Eagles defense has been softer against the run in recent games, having allowed 102 yards to Rashad Jennings in Week 9 and 75 yards last weekend to Eddie Lacy.
Through the air the Eagles defensive struggles are well documented. They rank 25th against QBs in FPPG-allowed and 32nd against wideouts. In Week 1, the Redskins had 4 receivers go for over 50 yards as RG3 spread the ball around nicely. Lately for Washington though it has just been a healthy dose of Jordan Reed and Pierre Garcon sprinkled in with 3-4 targets for Hankerson, Moss and others. Philly allowed their 6th receiver of the season to break 100 yards and have had some struggles against Tight Ends so both Garcon and Reed should be heavily owned on Sunday.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – If you think that Foles and company will torch the Redskins defense (which is pretty likely), then you can agree that Washington may not be able to establish their run game as much as they’d like. Griffin will have to throw a lot to keep up in this high-paced divisional game and is a strong GPP play this weekend.
- RB – The Eagles haven’t been prone to a huge game against backs but they also don’t completely shut them out. Much like Morris’ fantasy lines, the Eagles defense is pretty consistently allowing 12-14 fantasy points. Morris is a great H2H play who you should avoid for limited upside in GPPs.
- WR – Garcon is the only one seeing consistent targets in the WAS receiving corps and should be used in any game type this weekend.
- TE – “Jordan Reed(player-profile)”:/players/Jordan_Reed-16587’s price tag has dropped a bit on most sites, opening the door for you to save some $$ and play him heavily.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are riding the Foles train to back-to-back victories and everyone in the NFL is ready to proclaim him the next big thing. But lost in the shuffle is the fact that Philly hasn’t won a home game all season and has just 56 total points in 4 games at Lincoln Financial (30 coming in a Week 2 loss to SD). Even if Foles has only played in one of those games, the splits are still pretty eerie for a team that hopes to make the playoffs this season. The good news for Foles and the passing game is that Washington has allowed a passing TD in every game this season and 4 QBs have thrown for over 300 yards against them. Washington’s red zone defense has been one of the worst in the NFL, allowing touchdowns on 66% of red zone tries which should counteract Philadelphia’s atrocious 41% red zone conversion rate. Also worth noting is Riley Cooper who grabbed 2 more touchdowns in Week 10 and now has 8 catches for 241 yards and 5 scores over his last 2 games. The Eagles are a vertical passing game who can spread the field and should be able to get over the top of this Washington Secondary.
Washington hasn’t had much success stopping the run either. The good news is they haven’t allowed a 100 yard rusher since Week 2, but the bad news is they’ve let up 6 rushing scores in the last 4 games. They’ve also been absolutely leveled by backs who can take a screen pass and go with it, just look at some of these stat lines:
- Joique Bell – 4 rec, 69 yards
- Rashad Jennings, 8 rec, 71 yards
- Knowshon Moreno – 6 rec, 89 yards, 1 TD
- Danny Woodhead – 9 rec, 77 yards
That has put them has 5th worst in the NFL, allowing almost 50 receiving yards per game to opposing backs. McCoy is a PPR threat but be wary with Foles playing as he doesn’t check down to McCoy nearly as much as Michael Vick did. In fact, McCoy saw just 1 target in Week 10.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Foles is in play in any format this week given the top tier matchup and recent performance.
- RB – The matchup is great but would like his GPP value a lot more if Foles targeted him more often in the passing game. I’d leave him for H2H and 50/50 games only.
- WR – Both Cooper and Jackson have home run ability in this offense, but neither can be trusted for consistency. The Eagles wideouts are good GPP options.
- TE – Celek had a TD 2 weeks ago but for the most part hasn’t been involved in the offense.
Kansas City at Denver
| Kansas City Chiefs | Denver Broncos | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:05PM ET | Mile High Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 8 | 49 | 20.5 | -8 | 49 | 28.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.9 | 14 | 27 | 12 | Offense | 41.2 | 1 | 1 | 20 | |
| Defense | 12.3 | 1 | 6 | 24 | Defense | 26.4 | 25 | 30 | 4 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Denver | 24 | 24 | 21 | 27 | Kansas City | 7 | 6 | 10 | 1 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Bowe | 58 | 6.3 | 7.0 | Thomas | 80 | 8.8 | 10.5 | 10.0 | ||
| Avery | 48 | 5.3 | 5.0 | Welker | 77 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 6.0 | ||
| McCluster | 44 | 5.0 | 7.0 | Decker | 76 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Fasano | 16 | 3.2 | 2.0 | Thomas | 57 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | ||
Kansas City Chiefs
The matchup of the week is here and the undefeated Chiefs are 8 POINT UNDERDOGS. Wow, I’m still a little taken aback by that. Even on the road, a team that has started 9-0 probably deserves a little more respect than that. The biggest intrigue in this game will be whether Alex Smith can feel comfortable throwing a lot if the Chiefs fall behind. Kansas City is one of the heavier rush-first teams in the NFL and only passes on 57% of downs. If they’re trailing on the road, Smith will be forced to put the ball downfield a lot. In Week 10, that meant throwing at world’s-biggest-dumbass Dwayne Bowe who had a season high 12 targets. The Broncos have really struggled against WR1’s without Champ Bailey and Bowe has probably the best matchup in the KC passing game.
Then you get to the rushing attack for KC which ranks surprisingly low in rush ratings on PFF, sitting at below average through 10 weeks. Jamaal Charles is the highlight but has only had one triple digit rushing effort all season. His fantasy value comes in the air, where he has 3 or more receptions in every game this year. Either way, this Chiefs offense has relied on good field position thanks to their defense all season long and they may not have that in Week 11.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – I’m still willing to take a chance on any Quarterback facing Peyton Manning because of Manning’s ability to force the pace of the game to his liking. Smith is in play in GPPs.
- RB – Charles will have to play one of the best games of his career to keep KC in this game on the road, but if the Chiefs fall behind you may see him used less and less. Still like him in most formats but maybe with a lower ceiling than usual this weekend.
- WR – I’m a little worried about a team-induced suspension of some time period for Bowe, and if he sits out even a quarter his value is going to be heavily diminished. Other than that, none of the KC receivers all too reliable.
- TE – Anthony Fasano seemed like an interesting upside pick at one point but has fallen off the fantasy radar.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos took care of business in San Diego and head home to face the 9-0 Chiefs. With everyone talking about Manning’s ankle, Vegas still has Denver projected to score about 28 points on Sunday so clearly they aren’t drinking the injury KoolAid. This could be a perfect week to take Manning. Between the injury and the matchup, most daily fantasy action will be avoiding him on Sunday and I’d argue that the matchup isn’t nearly as difficult as it seems. Consider who the Chiefs have faced this season:
| Week | Quarterback | FP-All. | Seas-Avg | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blaine Gabbert | 4.44 | 6.48 | -2.04 |
| 1 | Chad Henne | 1.44 | 9.00 | -7.56 |
| 2 | Tony Romo | 16.22 | 18.92 | -2.70 |
| 3 | Michael Vick | 19.54 | 17.16 | 2.38 |
| 4 | Eli Manning | 12.88 | 13.31 | -0.43 |
| 5 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 22.88 | 15.75 | 7.13 |
| 6 | Terrelle Pryor | 15.64 | 16.65 | -1.01 |
| 7 | Case Keenum | 15.84 | 20.59 | -4.75 |
| 8 | Jason Campbell | 21.42 | 11.54 | 9.89 |
| 9 | Jeff Tuel | 12.86 | 7.53 | 5.33 |
In the last 5 weeks they’ve allowed Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jason Campbell to each score over 20 fantasy points. And 3 of the 5 QB’s they’ve faced have outperformed their season average. With that said, I don’t want to completely disrespect the Chiefs. They rank 3rd in pass rush and 1st in pass coverage on ProFootballFocus as well as ranking in the top-10 in nearly every imaginable defensive category. There’s no doubt that they’ve been great, but their competition hasn’t been all too steep.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – I think the factors mentioned above don’t altogether eliminate Peyton from your options this week, but instead make him a tournament play only whereas in weeks past he was the safest QB to own for H2H and 50/50s.
- RB – The Chiefs struggled against CJ Spiller before their bye week and could have similar issues against Knowshon Moreno. Moreno is another option I like for tournaments only on Sunday.
- WR – Given Manning’s ‘injury’ and the Chiefs pass rush, I would bet we see a heavy dose of Wes Welker this week. He could easily rack up 8-10 catches if Manning is rushed in the pocket and throughout his career he’s proven to be a tremendous response to countering strong pass rushes both in New England and so far in Denver.
- TE – No tight end has over 50 receiving yards against KC this season because their linebacking corps is wildly talented. I’m avoiding Thomas.
Minnesota at Seattle
| Minnesota Vikings | Seattle Seahawks | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:25PM ET | CenturyLink Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 13.5 | 45 | 15.75 | -13.5 | 45 | 29.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.4 | 13 | 25 | 17 | Offense | 26.5 | 6 | 24 | 2 | |
| Defense | 31.0 | 30 | 29 | 17 | Defense | 15.9 | 3 | 2 | 15 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Seattle | 2 | 11 | 3 | 9 | Minnesota | 31 | 29 | 25 | 30 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Jennings | 59 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 4.0 | Tate | 63 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 7.0 | |
| Simpson | 63 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 6.0 | Harvin | |||||
| Patterson | 28 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 4.0 | Rice | 35 | 4.4 | 3.0 | ||
| Carlson | 26 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 7.0 | Miller | 29 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 0.0 | |
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings head to Seattle to take on a Seahawks team coming back from the east coast in Week 10. The good news is that Minnesota notched their 2nd win of the season and had some added rest days after playing on Thursday night football. The bad news is their passing offense will likely be non-existent against a Seattle team allowing the 2nd fewest yards per game through the air this season. I’m going to save everyone the trouble here and say avoid the Minnesota pass offense.
The running game is a different story. The Seahawks have shown vulnerability to the run after allowing both Mike James and Zac Stacy over 100 yards in Weeks 8 and 9. The Falcons struggled in Week 10 but trailed for nearly all of that game and were forced to throw into the teeth of the Seattle defense all weekend. Seattle should have an early lead again in this one, but Minnesota won’t vacate their best offensive weapon just because they’re trailing. Peterson can run on this defense and has the potential to break a few big gainers and keep Minnesota in the game.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – No. No Ponder.
- RB – Peterson is one of my top GPP plays of the weekend. The consensus is to avoid all players against Seattle but they’ve allowed 3 backs over 100 yards, including Arian Foster who totaled 171 yards on the ground and in the passing game. Peterson is a tournament play only.
- WR – No.
- TE – John Carlson looked terrific in his first start for the Vikings and was the top scoring tight end of Week 10. With that said, the matchup is tough and I wouldn’t consider him except as an extreme value play in tournaments.
Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson has emerged as probably the most successful 2nd year quarterback from the impressive 2012 draft class. The Seahawks have the 6th best rated passing offense on PFF and face the third worst pass coverage team in the PFF ratings. It’s pretty close to a perfect storm for a guy who has multiple touchdown passes in 4 consecutive games. The other noteworthy piece of news in the Seattle passing game is the expected return of Percy Harvin. He should play on a limited basis, which is good news for the Seahawks as a team but bad news for daily fantasy this week. Limited basis means he’ll be on the field enough to pull value away from other receiving options but not often enough to be relevant for DFS purposes.
On the ground it’s all about Beast Mode who is averaging 135 rush yards over his last two games. Whatever happened in St. Louis a few weeks back seems to be water under the bridge and Lynch is running harder than ever. He’ll get to face a Minnesota defense that allowed Alfred Morris to go for 134 yards in Week 10 and Eddie Lacy to rush for 93 yards in Week 8.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Wilson has proven to be a solid H2H and tournament play of late and the matchup makes him an option in either format this weekend.
- RB – Lynch is probably the #1 running back option this weekend, and outside of the STL game he’s fared well in every week since Week 1. He’s an option in all formats this weekend.
- WR – As I mentioned above, I actually think the Harvin situation bodes poorly for all of the Seattle receivers. He could definitely have an impact and might be a nice tournament play if cheap, but his likely limited snap counts reduces much of the appeal. Golden Tate has also been outstanding but his value is slightly diminished with Harvin’s return.
- TE – Zach Miller didn’t have a single catch in Week 10 and has fallen off daily fantasy relevance.