NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week Nine

by RotoGrinders Last Updated 2013-11-02 23:10:40

Welcome to the RotoGrinders Weekly NFL Grind Down Article. There’s no better place to start your research for NFL action in the week ahead than the Grind Down. Each week, we break down every game in an effort to better prepare you when building your daily fantasy lineups.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Cincinnati at Miami

Cincinnati Bengals						Miami Dolphins
Thurs – 8:25PM ET						Sun Life Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-2.5	42.5	22.5				2.5	42.5	20
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.6	11	7	19		Offense	21.7	20	17	23
Defense	18.0	5	11	8		Defense	23.9	19	20	19
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Miami	10	29	4	30		Cincinnati	12	8	17	11
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Green	85	10.5	8.7	7.0		Wallace	64	8.7	10.0	10.0
Sanu	37	4.6	3.7	3.0		Hartline	58	7.6	8.5	6.0
Jones	34	4.4	6.3	8.0		Gibson	44	6.0	5.0	2.0
Gresham	39	4.9	4.0	3.0		Clay	42	5.3	8.0	8.0

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are hot, having reeled off four consecutive wins and now head to Miami to take on the Fins. Andy Dalton has had the best 3-game stretch of his career, posting 3 straight 300+ yard passing games and WR’s A.J. Green and Marvin Jones have been outstanding. That passing game is ranked 7th in the NFL and with rookie RB Giovani Bernard improving throughout the year, their entire offense seems poised to get better and better.

Defensively, the injuries are mounting as Leon Hall was ruled out for the year after Week 7 and now Taylor Mays will miss the remainder of 2013 as well. Their pass defense ranks 11th in the NFL and their 5th in points against but key injuries in their secondary certainly make them more vulnerable than ever, especially on a shortened week.

Fantasy Relevant

• QB – Dalton has averaged 30+ FPPG over the last 3 weeks and now faces a Dolphins team coming off their 4th consecutive loss. Dalton has been able to post monster stat lines in large part due to outstanding play from the offensive line. Dalton was hurried just 7 times in 31 pass attempts in Week 8. The Dolphins are the 3rd best at rushing the quarterback though, and as expected, Dalton’s numbers are severely diminished when hurried. Be wary given the short turnaround and tough matchup here.
• RB – Gio Bernard seems to be the better of the 2 Cincy running backs given the matchup here. The Dolphins rank 29th against Running Backs, and are allowing 50+ receiving yards per game to opposing backs. Bernard is a constant PPR threat and has played more snaps than the Law Firm in each of the last 4 weeks.
• WR – A.J. Green and Marvin Jones are both big time upside plays, but be wary against a Dolphins pass defense that is one of the games best. They rank 4th against Wide Receivers in terms of FPPG-allowed and the return of Dimitri Patterson last week made them nearly impenetrable. Patterson hadn’t played since Week 1 and Miami had allowed 4 100+ yard receivers in that time off. Last week, he picked off the first pass from Brady.
• TE – Gresham continues to be the go-to tight end in 1 TE sets, while Eifert gets most of his snaps in 2 TE formations. The Dolphins were torched by Jimmy Graham and Jordan Cameron through the first 4 games but shut down Rob Gronkowski in Week 8. I’d avoid the TEs for Cincy.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins come into this game having lost 4 consecutive games and are 2.5 point home underdogs. They’ve played better than those losses indicate, but Tannehill has turned the ball over 10 times during the losing streak. Miami is now averaging 2 turnovers per game, which devastates fantasy options. One of the biggest causes is their offensive line, which is dead last in the NFL and allowing 4.6 sacks per game. Tannehill has to be smarter with the football, but the offensive line issues may not be going away anytime soon.

On defense, it’s a team that has been getting gradually healthier over the past few weeks and looked nearly unbreakable in the first half vs. New England. Dolphins CB Dimitri Patterson came back last week for the first time since Week 1 and picked Tom Brady off on the first play. He left the game briefly in the 3rd quarter but returned. When he was on the field, the Patriots offense was anemic and his presence makes the Dolphins secondary’s one of the strongest in football. Be very cautious targeting players against the Fins.

Fantasy Relevant

• QB – Ryan Tannehill has been solid but the a fore mentioned turnovers hurt much of his value. The Cincy defense might be ripe for a let down, having lost DeAngelo Hall and now Taylor Mays over the last 2 weeks, but on a short rest week I don’t know if he is a viable option unless it’s as a QB2.
• RB – Lamar Miller finally played well as he torched a New England rush defense that has been devastated by injuries. Even throwing that performance out, it was good to see Miller take 63% of snaps to Daniel Thomas 34%. We’ve seen this before though, as he took 76% of snaps before their bye week and the Dolphins came back and split the plays 50/50 after the bye, so be wary.
• WR – Brandon Gibson is out for the season with an ACL tear which should mean even more targets for Hartline/Wallace/Clay. Hartline and Wallace are both boom or bust candidates but will be facing a Cincinnati secondary that is one more injury away from potential implosion.
• TE – I would argue the biggest beneficiary to Gibson’s injury here will be Clay in the red zone and on check downs for Tannehill. Gibson had snagged 4 touchdowns in the last 2 weeks and Clay will now need to shoulder a bigger load around the goal line to account, as shown by his 8 targets in Week 8.

Kansas City at Buffalo

Kansas City Chiefs						Buffalo Bills
Sun – 1:00PM ET						Ralph Wilson Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	40.5	21.75				3	40.5	18.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.0	13	24	11		Offense	22.0	18	30	7
Defense	12.2	1	4	11		Defense	26.6	25	24	26
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Buffalo	29	7	31	13		Kansas City	8	4	11	1
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Bowe	46	5.6	5.0	2.0		Johnson		8.9	12.0	11.0
Avery	43	5.4	4.3	5.0		Woods	53	6.5	4.3	3.0
McCluster	40	5.1	6.7	10.0		Graham	28	3.6	4.0	4.0
Fasano	15	3.8	4.0	3.0		Chandler	45	5.6	6.0	11.0

Kansas City

KC heads to Buffalo with an 8-0 record and hoping to keep their undefeated season in tact. Their offense has been just good enough to win games, despite ranking 24th in passing offense. Jamaal Charles is the focal point, and might be their best option in the passing game. He is 2nd in the NFL for running back red zone targets with 8 so far this season and 3rd in red zone touches.

Their defense is 2nd in pass rush, 2nd in rush defense, and 1st in pass coverage according to ProFootballFocus, so there are plenty of reasons to avoid targeting players opposing them. They’ve yet to allow a single QB to throw for over 300 yards and Jason Campbell last week was the first to tally multiple TD passes against them. Outside of a 158 yard explosion from LeSean McCoy in Week 2, the Chiefs also haven’t allowed any running back to go for over 55 yards.

• Other Notes: – Before you dismiss this game as a low-scoring, fantasy-insignificant affair consider the fact that both the Bills and Chiefs rank in the Top-10 in plays run from scrimmage per game. Both offenses play a surprising tempo and this one could be a little more back and forth than you’d expect.

Fantasy Relevant

• QB – Alex Smith is coming off one of his better fantasy performances, having thrown for 225 yards and 2 scores against the Browns to go with 40 rush yards. He’s now rushed for at least 25 yards in all but one game this season. He’s a strong QB2 option on sites like DS and SS
• RB – The matchup is surprisingly difficult, but the Bills have struggled at times against pass-catching backs. Charles is one of the premiere PPR backs in the NFL and could see a large percentage of his workload come on screens and check downs this weekend.
• WR – Dwayne Bowe and Donnie Avery are both listed as questionable but will both likely suit up. Given the great matchup, you may want to have one in some GPP lineups. I’d lean towards Bowe, as the Bills rank 26th against WR #1’s and 3rd against WR #2’s.
• TE – Anthony Fasano is seeing minimal targets each game and isn’t really on the daily fantasy radar right now.

Buffalo

The Bills are in the bottom quarter of the league in pass defense, rush defense and points allowed but ProFootballFocus rush defense ratings imply that their stats allowed may not be indicative of a true weakness. PFF has the Bills as the 7th best rush defense in the NFL, and they will certainly have a challenge containing Charles this weekend.

On offense, the Bills are banged up and Thad Lewis is still expected to start this weekend despite not having practiced as of Thursday. Lewis has managed games well, despite going just 1-2 in 3 starts. He’s not a game changer though and the Bills have struggled with the pass, ranking 30th in yards per game.

Fantasy Relevant

• QB – Lewis has averaged about 225 PaYd and 1 PaTD in 3 starts this year and shouldn’t be on your radar against this Chiefs defense.
• RB – Fred Jackson could lose some reps if CJ Spiller is able to return this week, but the matchup here is tough anyways. If Spiller does return, watch carefully to see if the week off actually improved his health.
• WR – Over the last 2 weeks, Stevie Johnson has seen 11 and 13 targets from Lewis and is clearly his favorite target. The KC defense is as good as they come so outside of Johnson, I wouldn’t consider any of the Bills.
• TE – Scott Chandler was targeted a season high 11 times in Week 8 and had his most productive day of the year. If he sees that kind of action again, he’s in play, but more likely than not he should drop off to the 5-6 target range.

Atlanta at Carolina

Atlanta Falcons						Carolina Panthers
Sun – 1:00PM ET						Bank of America Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7.5	43.5	18				-7.5	43.5	25.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.7	15	4	32		Offense	24.3	12	29	8
Defense	26.3	22	22	22		Defense	13.7	2	9	2
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Carolina	2	14	6	14		Atlanta	24	16	29	17
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Douglas	52	7.4	12.5	18.0		Smith	55	8.0	6.7	7.0
White	23	3.7	0.0	0.0		Lafell	36	4.7	4.3	5.0
Davis	9	1.1	4.0	7.0		Ginn Jr.		4.1	3.7	6.0
Gonzalez	57	8.4	6.0	8.0		Olsen	42	6.3	4.0	4.0

Atlanta Falcons

Despite all the injuries, the Falcons still rank 5th in ProFootballFocus’ passing offense ratings. Harry Douglas has emerged as a legitimate receiving option and even Drew Davis played well last week on the outside for Matty Ice. Their rush attack has been abysmal though, due in large part to an inept offensive line as well as the injury to Steven Jackson early in the year. At just 2-5, the Falcons are quickly losing their season.

Defensively, it’s been a mess and they’ve allowed at least 23 points every game this season. They rank in the bottom third of the NFL in nearly every defensive stat and haven’t had the same opportunistic defensive play that they capitalized on a year ago. This week they’ll hit the road where they’ve yet to win a game all season and are allowing 26 points per game.

Fantasy Relevant

• QB – Matt Ryan has thrown for 300+ yards in all but 2 games this season and has managed to remain an asset for daily fantasy despite his team’s issues. The matchup this week is extremely tough though, and I’d be wary.
• RB – Steven Jackson had 6 rush yards on 11 attempts against the Cardinals and the Panthers have only allowed one 100+ yard rusher all season. They rank middle of the pack vs. RB’s but I wouldn’t go near this situation until there’s more clarity.
• WR – Harry Douglas has back-to-back monster games and surprised most people when he lit up Patrick Patterson, who PFF has as their 11th best pass coverage CB. This week he’ll probably see a heavy dose of Melvin White, #19 in coverage ratings on PFF, and it’s not unrealistic to expect another big game. Drew Davis is also an option, seeing 8 targets last week, but the Panthers rank 2nd against WR#2’s and could lock down a guy who isn’t all that talented, but filling an injury gap.
• TE – Tony Gonzalez might be the best Falcons option this week, as the Panthers rank 14th against opposing Tight Ends and have allowed some big games recently to the likes of Tim Wright and Kyle Rudolph.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are shocking a lot of people as they have reeled off 3 straight wins, scoring 30 points or more in that span. The Panthers are leading the league in time of possession, averaging over 33 minutes per game on the season and nearly 35 minutes over that 3 game win streak. The big news for Carolina this weekend is the running back situation, with Jonathan Stewart returning and DeAngelo Williams missing practice time. Their rush attack ranks 8th in the NFL and that will be something to monitor down the kickoff on Sunday.

Defensively, it starts up front with a group that’s 9th in the NFL with 3.1 sacks per game. They’re 2nd in points allowed and 2nd in rush yards allowed and top-10 in most categories. Their secondary has sustained a ton of injuries but has held it together so far as well. They could also get the services of Josh Thomas back in their secondary this weekend.

Fantasy Relevant

• QB – Cam Newton is one of the top ranked QBs this weekend. At home against a divisional opponent, Cam will need to bring his A game against an offense that can put up some points, regardless of defense. Last week was the first time any of the Falcons games were decided by more than 10 points also, and close games mean more passing situations for Quarterbacks.
• RB – I really like Jonathan Stewart as a value running back this weekend. The Falcons rank 16th against running backs and Stewart would shoulder the majority of the Panthers rushing load if DeAngelo Williams can’t play.
• WR – No Panthers wideout has posted a 100+ yard game this season, which is troublesome news when looking for a handcuff to Cam Newton in GPPs. Steve Smith is the most viable option, having caught 4+ balls in all but one game this season, but upside is limited.
• TE – Greg Olsen isn’t listed on the injury report this weak which means either his health is actually improving or he’s realized it’s not going to change anytime soon. He snagged his 2nd TD of the season last week and is a terrific red zone threat, although his target numbers are down from a year ago.

San Diego at Washington

San Diego Chargers						Washington Redskins
Sun – 1:00PM ET						FedExField
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		0	51	25.5				0	51	25.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.0	13	6	15		Offense	24.7	10	10	6
Defense	20.6	9	26	16		Defense	32.7	31	27	30
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Washington	23	30	30	21		San Diego	31	2	28	10
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Allen	37	6.2	9.0			Garcon	78	11.1	11.3	11.0
Brown	37	5.3	3.0			Hankerson	36	5.4	4.7	3.0
Royal	31	4.4	2.0			Moss	37	5.1	3.3	5.0
Gates	56	7.9	7.0			Reed	44	7.3	9.7	14.0

San Diego Chargers

The Chargers come off the bye week at 4-3 and have won back to back games against two AFC South opponents. In those 2 weeks, the Chargers defense allowed a total of 15 points after opening the season by allowing their first two opponents to post 30. Their defense overall still ranks fourth worst on ProFootballFocus’ defense ratings though, and can be exploited in pass coverage. They’ve now allowed 3 QBs to throw for over 300 yards and one to post 299 passing yards.

On offense, the Chargers have been amazing in rush blocking and running the ball overall. Danny Woodhead, Ryan Mathews and even Ronnie Brown have all had success rushing behind this offensive line and Mathews has even gone over the 100 yard marker in back-to-back games. Their success with the run allows them to control the clock, and they’ve passed on just 56% of plays in 2013, and 53% over the last 3 weeks.

Fantasy Relevant

• QB – Philip Rivers is the ultimate boom or bust QB. He has 3 games with over 400 passing yards this season and 4 games with under 300 yards. His consistency isn’t there, but the matchup is great and this game has a 51 point spread with a pick em line. I imagine the Chargers won’t be able to slow the tempo on the road and Rivers is a strong play this weekend in any format.
• RB – The two headed monster of Woodhead and Mathews has been solid for San Diego, behind the a fore mentioned strong offensive line. That should continue against a Washington defense that ranks 30th against opposing running backs. I’d probably give the slight edge to Woodhead here though, because of red zone touches and PPR-upside.
• WR – Keenan Allen is still the go-to-guy for Rivers, but Vincent Brown has a fair amount of upside as well. Eddie Royal is questionable and if he doesn’t play, both Allen and Brown can be bumped up even more. Regardless, the matchup is great against a pass defense that is 3rd worst according to PFF.
• TE – Antonio Gates is also in play this week. The Redskins have been weak in all areas of defense and old-man Gates is coming off a bye week so he should be well rested. He’s the 2nd most targeted player in this offense, averaging 7 targets per game.

Washington Redskins

Washington has issues on and off the field, but their 2-5 record still has them in the mix for the NFC East title so they’ll have to move on quickly and try to find the winning touch from last season. They come into a game at home with an over/under of 51 points and no spread either way, meaning we should be expecting some fireworks. We’ll start with the good, which has been their run game behind the 4th best rush blocking offensive line in football so far. Their offense is 10th in scoring and 10th in passing yards as well, so putting up points and yards hasn’t been a major concern.

The bad starts and ends with this Redskins defense. They’re averaging the fifth worst yards per play rate, at 6 yards on average per play so far this season. Their pass coverage ranks 3rd worst on ProFootballFocus and their rush defense is 4th worst. The return of Brandon Merriweather this week should at least bring some intimidation, but won’t be a huge help considering how many holes they need to fill.

Fantasy Relevant

• QB – RG3 has been a hit or miss fantasy QB so far, and hasn’t thrown for 300+ yards since opening the season with 3 consecutive 300 yard games. He’s also been picked in all but one game this season. His health shouldn’t worry you, and the matchup here is great as the Chargers rank 31st against QBs. All-in-all, I’d say Griffin is GPP-fodder for Week 9.
• RB – Alfred Morris continues to see heavy touches but his upside is severely limited because he doesn’t catch balls out of the backfield. He has 3 catches for 22 yards all season and on full-point PPR sites, he has to find the end zone to hit value if he won’t be contributing in the passing game.
• WR – Pierre Garcon is the only reliable receiver for the Skins and continues to see double digit targets nearly every week. He’s absolutely in play against one of the worst secondaries in football.
• TE – Jordan Reed has emerged as a fantasy stud and again hit it big last weekend with 90 receiving yards on 8 catches. Reed was targeted a team high 14 times and will continue to be a vital part of the offense with RG3 looking to scramble a bit more.

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