NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week Ten - Page 3
Seattle at Atlanta
| Seattle Seahawks | Atlanta Falcons | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Georgia Dome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -6 | 44.5 | 25.25 | 6 | 44.5 | 19.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.8 | 10 | 27 | 5 | Offense | 22.0 | 18 | 5 | 32 | |
| Defense | 16.6 | 3 | 2 | 19 | Defense | 27.2 | 25 | 19 | 19 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Atlanta | 23 | 17 | 25 | 21 | Seattle | 2 | 8 | 2 | 12 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Tate | 56 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | Douglas | 57 | 7.1 | 10.0 | 5.0 | |
| Harvin | White | 23 | 3.7 | 0.0 | ||||||
| Rice | 35 | 4.4 | 3.5 | Davis | 11 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 2.0 | ||
| Miller | 29 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | Gonzalez | 64 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 7.0 | |
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks head to Atlanta to take on a struggling Falcons team, and coming off a near massive upset against the winless Buccaneers. Seattle came back to win, but showed some major weaknesses that we haven’t been accustomed to in both that game and the week prior. Their pass defense is still impressive, ranking 2nd in the NFL in PFF’s pass coverage ratings, but it was their run defense that really struggled for the second consecutive week against a rookie running back. After Zac Stacy hit 134 yards for the game in Week 8, Mike James went over 150 in Week 9. And looking back, the Seahawks have only shut down Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Arizona and San Francisco on the ground this year. They had big leads in most of those games and their opponent was forced to throw heavily to catch up. They also aren’t exactly the best rushing teams in the NFL (outside of SF). Their vulnerabilities against the run are becoming more clear each week and you shouldn’t avoid targeting their defense as much as you once did.
On offense, Wilson threw for his 3rd consecutive multi-TD game and now he has the Seahawks in the top-8 in the NFL in pass ratings. Their rush attack has been the best in the NFL this season as well according to ProFootballFocus ratings. Even with their offensive success, they’ve still only run 61 plays per game which is fourth lowest in the NFL and are below average in time of possession. They slow the game down heavily which devastates a lot of their fantasy value across the board. Regardless, they’re 10th in the NFL in scoring so if it isn’t broke, don’t fix it.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Russell Wilson is definitely in play as he returns to the place where he once broke the spirit of the Falcons in the playoffs last season. Better yet, the Falcons rank in the bottom third of the league against QBs
- RB – I don’t love Lynch this week, as he tends to be a better runner at home than on the road, but the matchup is great and he bounced back last week. He broke for 125 yards last week and didn’t find the end zone, so I expect him to return to pay dirt in Week 10.
- WR – All the Percy Harvin excitement has tapered off and he won’t likely be back until Week 11 or after their bye in Week 12. That leaves Golden Tate as the best receiving option for the Seahawks on Sunday and he is definitely a factor in large field tournaments against a bottom defense vs. WRs in Atlanta. I would also consider Doug Baldwin as a DEEP sleeper on tight cap sites like DraftStreet.
- TE – The Falcons are vulnerable to tight ends, but I don’t like using a guy like Zach Miller unless the matchup is really juicy. He just doesn’t see enough opportunities in this offense, and has only been thrown to more than 5 times once all year.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons finally received some good news when Roddy White announced he expects to play this weekend, but what a tough time for him to decide he’s good to go given the matchup. The Falcons strength is in their passing game, which ranks 4th in PFF ratings, but against Seattle it’s hard to imagine they’ll be able to get much going. They might try though, as they throw on the highest percentage of plays in the NFL at 70%. Their rushing game has fallen off the map since Steven Jackson returned, and he has been somewhat ineffective. He looked a lot better last week though and was able to go for 57 yards against one of the best front sevens in football in Carolina.
On defense, they’re 25th in points allowed per game and finally stopped an opposing QB from having a multi-pass TD game last week against Cam Newton (who did get multiple TDs but one was rushing). They were run all over by Andre Ellington in Week 8 then the three Carolina backs combined for over 80 yards in Week 9. The Falcons have also struggled to get after the QB, even with their off season signing of Osi Umenyiora they still rank 23rd in sacks per game.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Matt Ryan does have a TD pass in every game this season, but I just think the matchup here is too tough to ignore.
- RB – I actually really like Steven Jackson this week. I think the Falcons watch the game tape and realize that they don’t have a chance if they continue to throw at a league leading 70% of plays clip against Seattle. He also catches the ball out of the backfield and has had 3 catches in both weeks since returning to the field.
- WR – I’m avoiding ATL receivers because of the tough matchup and because Roddy White health concerns me. He may be healthy enough to play but I don’t know if he’s healthy enough to do much beyond slowing some of their other options value.
- TE – Tony Gonzalez had a big game last weekend and tight ends have had moderate success against Seattle, with 4 going for over 50 yards and 5 having scored TDs on the season. If you want to target Atlanta’s passing game, Tony G is the best bet.
Carolina at San Francisco
| Carolina Panthers | San Francisco 49ers | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:05PM ET | Candlestick Park | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 6 | 42.5 | 18.25 | -6 | 42.5 | 24.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.5 | 11 | 25 | 8 | Offense | 27.2 | 5 | 32 | 1 | |
| Defense | 13.2 | 2 | 10 | 2 | Defense | 18.1 | 4 | 8 | 12 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| San Francisco | 7 | 23 | 8 | 7 | Carolina | 1 | 11 | 4 | 18 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Smith | 65 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 10.0 | Boldin | 62 | 7.8 | 6.0 | ||
| Lafell | 45 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 9.0 | Williams | 25 | 3.1 | 2.0 | ||
| Ginn Jr. | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.0 | Patton | 2 | 0.5 | ||||
| Olsen | 47 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 5.0 | Davis | 47 | 6.7 | 6.0 | ||
Carolina Panthers
It’s four in a row now for Carolina, who trail New Orleans by just one game in the NFC South. Maybe most impressively, it was their fourth consecutive game with 30 points or more. Their offense is now 11th in the NFL in scoring thanks in large part due to their quarterback’s willingness to make the safe play instead of the big play more consistently. Their run game has been great for winning football games, but with Jonathan Stewart now back their fantasy value is drowning. Their overall rushing rating is 4th best in the NFL and their offensive line has been one of the Top-3 in all of football. Their offense is using an even 50/50 split between rush and pass and they lead the NFL in time of possession per game, averaging 34 minutes on the field.
Their defense has undoubtedly benefited from the big time of possession differentials, but their front seven can’t be overlooked as one of the best in football. Their #1 in opponent rush attempts per game and #2 in opponent yards per game on the ground. They’re also holding opponents to a measly 3.7 yards per carry. Their defensive backs have been banged up, but they’re getting healthier and they still haven’t allowed a QB to throw for multiple scores all season.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Cam Newton is arguably the most dynamic fantasy quarterback in the NFL, even with his safer approach to the game this season. The matchup is tough vs. San Fran so he’ll need to be more than a game manager to keep his team in the game. I like Newton in GPPs.
- RB – Given the three-headed monster at RB and the tough matchup, avoid Carolina backs.
- WR – None of the Panther wideouts have a high ceiling, but Steve Smith is pretty consistent. If the matchup was better I’d consider Smith but am avoiding the bunch this weekend.
- TE – Greg Olsen is your best bet if you want to roll the dice on Newton this week as a GPP-handcuff. Beyond that, I still see this game being low scoring and wouldn’t use Olsen in any other scenario.
San Francisco 49ers
The Niners are hot as well, having reeled off 5 consecutive wins with 30+ points in each as well. They hung 42 on the Jaguars in London and Kaepernick seems to be coming back to life as the season progresses. Their rush attack is tops in the NFL, which means this game should be a battle of strength on strength. An area of concern for the Niners is how many plays they run per game, making it difficult to keep up if their opponent is able to score early. They run the 2nd fewest plays per game at 60.5 per contest.
On defense, it’s a new look unit that still has been improving throughout the year. During the 5 game win streak, they’ve allowed no more than 20 points and rank 6th in the NFL in opponent yards per game on the season, at just over 325 YPG-against. The one area of concern for this defense has been their ability to get after the quarterback, which has undoubtedly been hurt by the loss of Aldon Smith and should benefit with his return, in limited fashion, this week. They’re averaging just 2.1 sacks per game (26th in the NFL) and 1.3 over their last three games. They’ve also been gashed at times by opponent running backs, especially in the passing game where they’ve allowed 154 receiving yards to RBs over the last 3 weeks.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Kaep’s still not throwing for many yards though, and since his 400 yard outburst in Week 1 he’s only gone over 200 yards in 1 other game. He’s making it happen on the ground though, with 3 Rush TDs and 112 rush yards over his last two. I think he’s in play in a huge home game for the 49ers.
- RB – Gore’s matchup is as tough as it gets, and while he will undoubtedly see heavy touches he’ll be battling a lot in the trenches. I don’t think he’s worth an inflated price tag this weekend after his 2 huge weeks before the bye.
- WR – The Panthers have allowed 5 opposing WR #1’s to go for 80+ yards but don’t allow a ton of passing TDs. Anquan Boldin has been one of the most volatile WRs in the game this season, but is still a GPP play here because of his upside.
- TE – Davis is probably the best TE not named Graham or Gronk, and he has the best defense vs. position matchups of all the Niners against Carolina. I like him a lot in all formats, if he’s priced well below Graham.
Houston at Arizona
| Houston Texans | Arizona Cardinals | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:25PM ET | Univ. of Phoenix Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 1 | 40.5 | 19.75 | -1 | 40.5 | 20.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.2 | 28 | 11 | 9 | Offense | 20.0 | 24 | 18 | 24 | |
| Defense | 27.6 | 27 | 1 | 18 | Defense | 21.8 | 11 | 24 | 4 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Arizona | 15 | 7 | 6 | 32 | Houston | 9 | 10 | 3 | 9 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Johnson | 84 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 13.0 | Fitzgerald | 65 | 8.0 | 6.0 | ||
| Hopkins | 48 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | Floyd | 55 | 7.0 | 7.0 | ||
| Martin | 14 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Roberts | 38 | 4.8 | 5.0 | ||
| Graham | 39 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 6.0 | Housler | 20 | 3.3 | 4.0 | ||
Houston Texans
After Coach Gary Kubiak left the game with a frightening scene on SNF last weekend, the Texans rightfully lost focus and threw away a game that would have been huge to win. The good news is they scored over 20 points for the first time since Week 3, but they’ve also allowed 27 or more points in 4 of the last 6 games. On offense, the move to Case Keenum worked last weekend as he found Andre Johnson 3 times in the end zone and threw for 350 yards. Overall, Keenum has been solid in both of his starts and has yet to throw an interception, something Matt Schaub wasn’t able to avoid in all but one of his 6 starts. The big news for the Texans is Arian Foster, who suited up then didn’t play on Sunday and is very much up in the air for Week 10.
On defense, Andrew Luck became the 4th opposing QB to throw for multiple touchdowns against them this season but none have gone over the 300 yard marker yet which is impressive. They also held an opposing back to under 75 yards for the first time in 4 weeks, but given the struggles of the Colts run game and the big lead the Texans had, you can’t trust that number too much. Their rush D is still soft and they rank in the bottom half of the NFL at 4.2 yards allowed per carry.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Arizona has struggled against the pass over the past 3 weeks and given how well Keenum has played, I think he could be a nice 2nd quarterback option on 2 QB sites in Week 10.
- RB – If Foster sits, Tate becomes a tremendous value play in all formats against a defense that has allowed 100+ yards on the ground over 2 of the last 3 weeks.
- WR – It’s hard not to consider Andre Johnson after his monster Week 9, but I’d proceed cautiously against Patrick Peterson for Arizona. He’s probably a GPP-only type play this weekend.
- TE – Garrett Graham has a great matchup to breakout of recent struggles against the worst defense vs. tight ends in football. Also, Keenum has been targeting Graham heavily despite the lack of production. He saw 8 targets in Week 7 and 6 targets in Week 9.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals took a Week 9 bye following an impressive win vs. Atlanta where Andre Ellington exploded for 150+ yards on the ground, including an 80 yard TD break. Their offense as a whole though has struggled and ranks in the bottom half of the NFL in nearly every category. They haven’t hit over 300 yards through the air since Week 1, but did manage over 100 total rush yards in Week 9 for the first time all season. PFF has their pass blocking rating as the league’s worst, which accounts for some of their issues in the passing game. Palmer has been taken down 2.9 times per game on the year, and 3.7 per game over the last 3 weeks.
On defense, they haven’t allowed a lot of huge games to opponent quarterbacks or running backs, but have been consistently subpar. Their rush defense has been better, ranking 4th in yards against per game and ranking 10th in PFF’s rush D ratings. In the passing game, it’s all about their superb defensive back Patrick Peterson. As talented as he is, he’s been exposed a bit this year and allowed big games to Calvin Johnson, Marques Colston, Golden Tate and Harry Douglas. The best word to describe their defense as a whole is “mediocre”.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Palmer’s upside is limited, as seen by his inability to throw for over 300 yards since Week 1. But he has been able to find receivers in the end zone multiple times in 2 of the Cards last 3 games. The matchup is tough though and I’d avoid this play.
- RB – If Rashard Mendenhall plays, Ellington will lose some value but is still an upside/tournament play. If Mendenhall sits, Ellington can be bumped up to both a GPP and cash game play.
- WR – Larry Fitzgerald has been hit or miss all season but coming off the bye week you can argue his health should be pretty much 100% and a healthy Fitz can beat any corner in football. The other option is Michael Floyd, but he was targeted just 4 times in the Cards last game and I’d proceed with caution in a tough matchup.
- TE – Rob Housler is a serviceable tight end but isn’t involved enough to be relevant for daily fantasy purposes.
Denver at San Diego
| Denver Broncos | San Diego Chargers | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:25PM ET | Qualcomm Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -7 | 57 | 32 | 7 | 57 | 25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 42.9 | 1 | 1 | 17 | Offense | 24.0 | 15 | 4 | 20 | |
| Defense | 27.2 | 25 | 30 | 3 | Defense | 21.8 | 11 | 27 | 23 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| San Diego | 28 | 9 | 28 | 10 | Denver | 26 | 22 | 26 | 28 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Thomas | 70 | 8.6 | 10.0 | Allen | 48 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 11.0 | ||
| Welker | 71 | 9.0 | 11.0 | Brown | 43 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 6.0 | ||
| Decker | 71 | 8.8 | 10.0 | Royal | 37 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 6.0 | ||
| Thomas | 52 | 6.5 | 4.5 | Gates | 66 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 10.0 | ||
Denver Broncos
Coming off a bye, and their first loss of the season, the Broncos travel to San Diego in a game with a whopping 57 point over/under. The Broncos are 7 point road favorites so it’s no surprise that Vegas expects their offense to put up a ton of points. The hardest thing about Denver is that they have so many weapons, predicting which will blow up is a challenge. So let’s take a look at some target trends and see what we can find:
Demaryius Thomas is the only player to lead the team in targets in back-to-back weeks all season. Julius Thomas is the most volatile in terms of opportunities of all the Broncos receivers and Wes Welker is the most consistent.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Peyton Manning is the best quarterback this weekend in all formats. Plug him in as long as you can build a quality team around him.
- RB – The Chargers rush defense has been better and I actually think the Chargers score enough to force the Broncos to continue to push the offense, but regardless Moreno catches enough balls out of the backfield to be a constant threat to post a big score.
- WR – Here’s what I’m taking away from the target stats above: Welker and Decker are the most reliable for head-to-head or 50/50s. The two Thomas’s are best left for tournaments and GPPs (not to say you can’t use the other 2 in GPPs as well).
- TE – Included Thomas in the WR comments above, but he’s in play in large field events for Week 10.
San Diego Chargers
The Chargers suffered a tough loss at Washington in OT and now have to return home to face the best offense in football. Their defense appeared to be improving, after holding opponents to under 10 points in back-to-back games in Weeks 7 and 8. The Redskins moved the ball well though and they struggled heavily against the rush. On the season, the Chargers rank in the bottom 10 in rush defense rating, 17th in pass rush rating and 3rd to last in pass coverage rating on the season. They have been able to prevent a pass TD in three straight games after allowing multiple in 4 of the first 5 weeks.
On offense, their ability to win starts on the ground despite a talented passing attack. Their rush blocking has been superb and ranks 3rd on ProFootballFocus so far this season. It’s opened holes for both Danny Woodhead and Ryan Mathews to run free and even though they’re 20th in rush yards per game, they’ve been able to rush effectively enough to keep teams honest (which has been a struggle in years past). Then we can move onto the passing game, which lead by Philip Rivers has thrown for the 4th most yards per game this season. Keenan Allen has been a revelation and Vincent Brown and Eddie Royal have contributed at times as well. And of course you can’t talk Chargers without mentioning their future hall-of-fame tight end Antonio Gates. He’s now been targeted 10 times in 4 games this season after last weekend.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – If you’re in a qualifier this weekend, I would almost say that Philip Rivers is a better play than Peyton Manning for upside. Consider that he is likely to be chasing Manning for much of this game and that has lead to some huge fantasy outputs for QBs all year long.
- RB – I’m giving an edge to Woodhead in the passing game this weekend as the Chargers should be forced to throw a lot against this Broncos team, especially in full point PPR games.
- WR – Keenan Allen continues to play well and is an option in all formats this weekend. Eddie Royal is also listed as questionable, so if he sits I would bump Allen up and even look at Vincent Brown as a tournament play.
- TE – The Broncos have struggled against tight ends and Gates might be aging but he still has one of the highest ceilings for tight ends. He should be in play in all formats as well on Sunday.