NHL Grind Down: Friday, December 29th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2017-12-29 19:39:50 Premium Content Part of the product SimLabs+

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Buffalo Sabres at New Jersey Devils

Buffalo Sabres					New Jersey Devils
			Robin Lehner					Cory Schneider
			Record					Record
			9-20-8					22-9-5
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.16	3.30	11.82	82.46	Team Stats	3.14	2.83	20.91	84.38

Sabres Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 50.65 CF/60 (31) | 57.71 CA/60 (17) | 1.79 xGF/60 (30) | 2.17 xGA/60 (21)

At this point and despite having some strong forwards in their top six, the Sabres aren’t really a playable bunch. Tonight’s matchup may seem distant from afar, but the Devils are playing quite well and they have been among the best defenses in the league at 5v5 on home ice. With Cory Schneider playing to boot, it sets up as another quiet night for Buffalo’s offense.

The group shows some signs of life from time to time, but the system just isn’t letting the offense grow. Jack Eichel, skating with Zemgus Girgensons and Sam Reinhart, isn’t even generating consistent offense. The second line of Ryan O’Reilly, Evander Kane, and Kyle Okposo should be one of those lines we love in GPP’s because the Sabres are always underdogs yet they have the upside to bust out.

Alas, that hasn’t been the case this year despite their talents. With a poor system and facing a Devil defense that has been elite limiting high-danger shot attempts at home (best in the league at 5v5 per hour), Buffalo isn’t recommended. Tournament players looking for leverage on what should be high Schneider ownership can look to the second line, but there’s a good chance they match out against the Hall line at 5v5 and thus draw the an unfavorable on-ice matchup.

Sabres Special Teams Outlook
New Jersey’s 84.4% penalty kill ratio is one of the best marks in the league, and there’s not a whole ton of luck in there. The Devils limit shot attempts quantity extremely well, and they have also been strong limiting scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts. Buffalo’s power play was a high-flying unit last year, but as with their 5v5 offense the numbers have deteriorated. Thus, it’s not a spot the Sabres can really look to gain a leg up on the Devils.

Sabres Goaltending Outlook
Noted conspiracy theorist Robin Lehner can take a Calvinist interpretation of how the league makes calls against the Sabres — and maybe he’s right! — but the fact of the matter is that the Sabres aren’t a great team these days. Lehner has been a solid budget play all season, but he always comes with more risk than usual on the road. Offensive support cannot be assumed. New Jersey comes into this game flying high, but while they are overachieving a bit, the rough form of the Sabres at the moment may keep New Jersey floating for at least one more game.

Devils Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 54.72 CF/60 (24) | 60.46 CA/60 (5) | 2.39 xGF/60 (11) | 2.37 xGA/60 (8)

The Devils are skating extremely well at the moment, and they have been dominating during their current homestand. Things don’t project to stay this way for the long term, but at least they get the lowly Sabres in town tonight. The main issue for New Jersey, as it always in in this space, is that outside of the top line production is quite volatile from New Jersey. Additionally, though the Sabres aren’t a good team overall, their defensive numbers do not carry sieve-like characteristics — they aren’t the Coyotes or Rangers, basically.

Jesper Bratt replaced Kyle Palmieri on the top line with Taylor Hall and Nico Hischier, and the results were still solid in the last game. Bratt has played well for an unheralded rookie. Hall is of course the money beet here, so the players skating with him are the ones we want to look at.

Palmieri’s reassignment to the second line does help the case for more secondary scoring for NJ. He’ll play with Travis Zajac and Marcus Johansson, so at the very least this line should (at least eventually, with time) become one that drives play well. The finish and thus upside may lag, but in the right matchup they should become viable. Tonight they’ll likely work against Eichel/Reinhart and the Buffalo top line, a matchup that doesn’t scream must play. Put this line in a hold pattern for future reference.

Brian Boyle, Miles Wood, Blake Coleman, Pavel Zacha… all are in a similar bucket in that they have been getting chances lately, but they don’t project as viable assets and could easily be a “number chasing” play (in the case of Boyle).

Devils Special Teams Outlook
The Sabres have mostly done a good job staying out of the penalty box, but their penalty kill numbers aren’t great. They are a fringe top ten most generous team in allowing overall shot attempts and the quality is middle of the pack or above. Unfortunately, the Devils have been one of the worst power play teams in the league, failing to generating a respectable volume of shot attempts and not quite average in quality or scoring chances.

Devils Goaltending Outlook
Cory Schneider should be between the pipes with Keith Kinkaid going tomorrow. Schneider is going to carry high ownership and for good reason. He has been fantastic this year, and on home ice he warrants a bit more consideration. That’s because NJ will likely still allow a fair amount of shots to get through, but they have been very strong limiting high-danger shot attempts. With Buffalo possessing one of the league’s worst offenses, Schneider should be good to go in all formats.

Sabres Elite Plays: None
Sabres Secondary Plays: Jack Eichel, Evander Kane
Stackability: Red
Goaltending: Orange

Devils Elite Plays: Taylor Hall
Devils Secondary Plays: Kyle Palmieri, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt
Stackability: Orange / %{color:yellow}*Yellow*
Goaltending: Green