NHL Grind Down: Thursday, December 21st

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2017-12-21 21:44:16 Premium Content Part of the product SimLabs+

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key

CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed

Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Columbus Blue Jackets at Pittsburgh Penguins

Columbus Blue Jackets					Pittsburgh Penguins
			Sergei Bobrovsky					Matt Murray
			Record					Record
			21-13-1					17-15-3
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.76	2.71	10.20	82.42	Team Stats	2.89	3.17	24.22	80.77

Blue Jackets Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 60.88 CF/60 (9) | 55.81 CA/60 (25) | 2.63 xGF/60 (1) | 2.35 xGA/60 (9)

The Blue Jackets took care of business last night against Toronto, and they will look for a repeat performance in a key Metro Division game. The matchup is fairly decent as far as pace and opportunity go, though the Penguins on home ice are a different animal then when they are on the road.

Columbus — or more specifically John Tortorella — qualifies as a DFS headache maker, an unneeded development in a game with plenty of them. The lines have been blended constantly and untimely, usually shortly before puck drop. Ultimately, I think Columbus slots in as something of a secondary option in Pittsburgh despite their strong xGF rate at 5v5.

There’s also a small matter of underperformance from a handful of regular forwards. Artemi Panarin hasn’t been consistently scoring and his price is still high. Josh Anderson has been the best forward, and he, Panarin, and Pierre-Luc Dubois are something of a constant. They are the most dependable line and seem to have Tortorella’s trust and haven’t been messed with much.

Alex Wennberg seems to be perking up a bit, and last night he had some success with Cam Atkinson and Sonny Milano. There’s a good chance this line sees time against Pittsburgh’s second line, which isn’t quite as favorable of a draw. Oliver Bjorkstrand has been playing well but is skating with Nick Foligno and Boone Jenner, both of whom are struggling and not really of interest tonight.

Blue Jackets Special Teams Outlook
Columbus’s power play scored a goal last night and they are now over 10% efficiency on the year. Maybe some puck luck is coming their way. Pittsburgh’s penalty kill numbers are quite strong, however, so given the ineptitude of the Blue Jacket power play this year, don’t expect much.

Blue Jackets Goaltending Outlook
Sergei Bobrovsky was saved for this game, but uh… he’s been kind of bad lately. It’s a long season and every team and player goes through ups and downs. Bobrovsky going to Pittsburgh in a down, however, is #ungood. He’s allowed 18 goals over four starts, and if you take out his two goal allowed game versus Carolina, the presentation is uglier with 16 goals allowed in three. Fade.

Penguins Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 61.29 CF/60 (8) | 58.1 CA/60 (14) | 2.41 xGF/60 (11) | 2.39 xGA/60 (7)

The Penguins remain a frustrating team as they have favorable expected numbers, but their realized results lag. The tide started to turn before turning back again, but Pittsburgh is an offense to invest in. And invest you’ll need to as they don’t come cheap.

Columbus has seen some cracks in their defense and their expected goals allowed rate is rising. Vezina netminder Sergei Bobrovsky is struggling, these two teams don’t particularly care for each other, and the game is in Pittsburgh while the Pens are rested and Jackets are playing b2b. This sets up as a nice night for the Penguins.

Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel go together like gin and juice, and if Patric Hornqvist sidelined, Guetnzel would likely get a look on the top power play unit again. That would make him and Crosby a fantastic pair that will come slightly cheaper than Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel. Both lines are in great spots tonight and make for fine plays in all formats.

Penguins Special Teams Outlook
The Jackets don’t go shorthanded too often, no doubt fearing the Wrath of Torts. Pittsburgh’s power play, even sans Hornqvist (potentially), is a fully operation battle station and can come through in most any matchup. Should they get the opportunity, they have a good chance for success, but it’s not a spot that really vaults the ceiling.

Penguins Goaltending Outlook
Matt Murray on home ice is always in play. Pittsburgh poor defense is always a concern. Thankfully for Murray, the defense tends to tighten up a bit on home ice and the Columbus offense has been hit or miss despite some strong underlying numbers and their stars aren’t producing. While this game could conceivably turn into a track meet, there is appeal to using Murray tonight and ownership should be lower.

Blue Jackets Elite Plays: Josh Anderson, Seth Jones
Blue Jackets Secondary Plays: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Artemi Panarin, Oliver Bjorkstrand
Stackability: Yellow / Orange
Goaltending: Orange / Red

Penguins Elite Plays: Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel, Kris Letang
Penguins Secondary Plays: Patric Hornqvist (questionable)
Stackability: Green
Goaltending: Yellow